J.Spin

Event totals: 3.7” Snow/0.14” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.8 inches New Liquid: 0.11 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 25.5 Snow Density: 3.9% H2O Temperature: 24.1 F Sky: Snow (2 - 15 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 4.0 inches

Yeah, it’s definitely picked up over the past 20 minutes or so. I was guessing a 0.5”/hr rate around 9:00 P.M., but it’s been ramping up a bit – it looks like 0.4” in the past 30 min, so getting closer to a 1”/hr rate now. You can see a bit of fire hose spray movement on the radar:

I just checked out the radar and I see that pulse pushing in. We’ve had generally just flurries since my 6 PM observations, but we’ll see if this next round kicks the snowfall rate up a bit more. You can often tell if the moisture pulse is getting a bit more serious when the radar switches sensitivity modes.

Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.03” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.7 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 23.3 Snow Density: 4.3% H2O Temperature: 27.9 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 1.0 inches

While snowfall up here in NNE hasn’t been atrocious, Dryslot’s point is well taken and speaks to the fact that snow preservation has definitely been below average. It’s going to be quite evident in those places like NW Maine that should really be (on average) developing their substantial winter snowpack at this point. Ginx is definitely on track with the map for the SNE/NYC complaining stuff though. I’m pretty sure I’ve heard people down there mentioning how they’re ahead of average on seasonal snowfall? Haven’t some people down there had not one but two substantial synoptic storms at this point?

Clearly we need to get going on some appropriate images/icons for the current event:

Checking out the Bolton Valley Main Base Webcam, it seems like a similar situation. I see that it’s snowing steadily and they’ve quickly started to cover up those bare areas of natural terrain.

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/Trace L.E. We’ve had light snow of varying intensity this morning since the flakes started up around 10:00 AM. It’s not actually super dry accumulation, since we’re only occasionally seeing slightly larger flakes above the 5 mm range, but average liquid from two stacked cores was 0.0049”, so it rounded down to zero for a trace in this analysis. Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 28.9 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 5 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: Trace

Wow, I never knew it was the resort running that Co-Op. I just figured it was an independent individual living up there in the condos or something. I always assumed that to be at the level of an official Co-Op, you really had to be thoroughly trained, committed, and very objective. Also, from what I’ve seen, you also have to be specifically selected and vetted by the NWS to cover a location that they deem necessary to provide public information as part of their network.

We had a decent amount of sun earlier this morning, but it clouded up pretty quickly over the last hour or so, and we’ve got some flakes falling now. You can definitely see the quick approach of that moisture from the west on the radar:

There was a trace of snow that whitened the ground a bit here this morning, but as far as I can tell, that, and that touch of front side snow from Wednesday, was all we picked up from Winter Storm Harold at our site. Potential snow from the lakes looks to be the next opportunity as you noted – Lake Effect Snow Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories are visible on the BTV NWS alerts map off to the west. That doesn’t mean the snow will necessarily make it over here, but it’s always a good sign that a decent event is going on for Lake Ontario, so the moisture is around. After that, there’s a potential small system to watch Monday into Tuesday.

That can definitely be done in your location, it will just depend on the makeup of the front. I think snow from fronts such as this are part of the fraud crew in SNE, but it’s definitely different up here That’s what’s so great about winter up here in the mountains though – as I mentioned, while indeed you may not get all snow from every storm (this December is trying to make that blatantly obvious), you will get some snow from just about every storm. At least that’s how it works in this area. We sort of have a bit more of the Great Lakes/LES hookup over here in the Northern Greens to make that happen, and we’re still trying to figure out exactly how things go in your neck of the woods, but you should get in on a lot of it (Alex seems to get in on most of it in his location). Our point forecast here suggests an inch of accumulation through tomorrow night, and the Mansfield point forecast is in the 2-5” range, so anything in that realm is possible. These fronts can be funky because the air is trying to dry out as the colder temperatures arrive, so sometimes they can flop, even here. Typically, there’s some snow to wring out though.

There were model runs showing that sort of result for this current storm as well. It’s not impossible, but in my experience, you really need something more than just the front pushing though (such as touches of redevelopment) to get substantial snows. Obviously in terms of locations, the Northern Greens can wring out moisture with the best of them, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen more than a few inches of snow from a pure frontal passage. It’s possible that the models are picking up on something that’s changing that back side of that modeled storm to something more than just a typical cold frontal passage, and I’m sure the meteorologists can comment on that.

That’s right. Any resort that tried to incorporate manmade snow into their season snow totals would pretty much be laughed at. If they wanted to play that game then each season’s snowfall could essentially be infinite.

The snowmaking is totally unrelated to season snowfall (unless a resort is totally clueless and doing something wrong).

There’s only so much correlation between snowfall and snowpack unless you’re taking about high-elevation spots in the Rockies, Sierra, etc. that don’t see any substantial melting/snowpack loss throughout a typical season. That correlation gets a bit better here as we move farther into the season and you get snowpack down that is just too thick and dense to melt with an occasional warm sector storm, but we’re still too early to be there. Although that 67” snowfall number for the season thus far at Jay Peak is decent, it’s likely a bit behind average pace, and the same would go for that Mansfield/Stowe 55” number. The Northern Greens from Bolton Valley through Jay Peak typically average about 2X the snowfall I record here at our site (e.g. if I record 150” they’ll be in the 300” range, and if I record 200” they’ll be in the 400” range, etc.), so if our average through 12/25 here is 41.0”, average snowfall pace for them at this point should be 80”+. I’m not sure if PF has daily season averages for his Stowe plot, but I know he’s got monthly averages and should be able to say where the mountain’s snowfall should be by the end of this month with respect to average pace.

My data say that we could hardly be more average to this point in the season than what we’ve seen. We’re at 40.1” of snow on the season, and we just fell behind average snowfall yesterday (12/24 mean = 40.4”). Mean snowfall through today is 41.0”, but our point forecast suggests we won’t see any additional snow here until after midnight. Things may feel a bit more off of average pace than they are due to the fact that November was better than average on snowfall, and December thus far has been below average. Also, I suspect snowpack (SDD) is behind average pace as well, which can give the month a less average feel. Mean snow depth for this date at our site is roughly 7 inches, and obviously we’re below that with only a trace out there right now.

Yeah, but you know it’s not going to play out like that around here. Heck, Mansfield will probably get more than that 1” from the snow on the back side of this system and the subsequent LES. It just seems like it would be hard to go 16 days at this time of year without substantially more snow than that due to the immovable lift of the mountains.

Just check on what PF has recorded for the season on Mansfield (55” I assume). You know that’s going to be a rock solid number. Assuming both resorts started counting snowfall at roughly the same time, just add roughly 10 or 20% onto the Stowe number, and if Jay Peak’s number is in that range, it’s probably about on track.

Today turned out to be sort of a bit of a midwinter gem, which is pretty nice considering winter just started. I hadn’t expected it to be quite so stunning, but with the recent snows, it was clearly a good day to head up to Bolton for a tour and check out how the powder had settled in. In the morning, before any clouds rolled it, the sun and sky were simply brilliant. And that’s the first thing I noticed when I got out of the car at the mountain. And I couldn’t believe how hot the sun felt. We’re up near 45 N latitude, and this time of year is just about as low a sun angle as we get, so all I can think is that I’m just not used to actually having the sun shining on my face. I had a 23% VLT lens in my goggles, figuring that sure, it was sunny, but it’s late December way up here in the north. Well, I could have easily gone with something sub-10% VLT; it was that bright. The powder definitely exceeded expectations today – I found settled depths of roughly 5-7” above the subsurface at 2,000’, and many spots with 8-10” up near 3,000’. I initially couldn’t figure out where all of it had come from, but then I realized that since the 4-5” from Winter Storm Gail, it’s just continued to snow with these past couple of smaller systems. The Wilderness skin track was in excellent shape, and it almost looked like the resort had groomed the adjoining Turnpike trail because it was so smoothly packed. It’s possible that it was just very nicely packed by skier traffic, but for folks looking for groomed turns in the Wilderness area, it’s good to go. Off the main route though, there was tons of untracked powder available, and it was definitely right-side-up, midwinter quality stuff. That synoptic snow from Winter Storm Gail, topped off with the drier snow from these last couple of systems has really put together a quality surface. Low-angle stuff is good to go, and even moderate-angle slopes are nice if the snow is protected from the wind and there hasn’t been any skier traffic. Above those angles though, the snowpack is definitely not ready yet; the base is just not deep enough. It’s going to be interesting to see how things play out for this next week. This next storm looks to consolidate the base, and there are a couple of potential systems behind it that could make some nice conditions atop that if they came to fruition on the snowy side of things. I’ve added a couple of shots from today’s tour below – that first one is definitely representative of what the skies were like in the morning.

I asked him and he just sort of shrugged. He didn’t really say much, so I assume he hadn’t given it much thought.

Snow just started falling in association with this next system. When I was on the mountain this morning it was wall to wall brilliant sunshine, but clouds had quickly built in to create very overcast skies when I was leaving after noontime. I thought this was a new system that just sort of snuck in here, but I guess it’s actually front end precipitation from Winter Storm Harold. The BTV NWS isn’t saying much about the snow at this point, but you can see the precipitation building in on the local radar:

I saw this when I was browsing through the main December thread – you are definitely starting to get a feel for your location in winter. It’s not that anyone is against big synoptic systems or anything, they can deliver a lot of snow and really put down a base. But, trying to live off those types of storms in terms of supplying continuous snow for winter-related industries and pursuits is just a massive, season-long crapshoot unless you are in some sort of perfect pattern. I guess that’s why so much of the discussion in the forum is focused around watching for good/great winter weather patterns to develop. This statement was great: “Two weak systems swing through and drop snow on me followed by some upslope. That works here.” Yeah, in terms of snowfall, that’s literally our…

Event totals: 1.8” Snow/0.09” L.E. I see a few flurries out there, but the point forecast here doesn’t call for any snow today, so this may be the last round of accumulation for this event. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 21.4 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 4.0 inches

Oh man, RFID is just so good from a skier’s perspective. We’ve loved using ours at Stowe over the past several years, and with Bolton converting over to RFID last season, it’s been even better. I just stick my passes in my shoulder pocket, and literally forget about them. Even keeping both my Stowe and Bolton passes right together in the same pocket has been no trouble. Gone are the days of fumbling around in the lift line to show your pass, especially on storm days when it’s just dumping, and the last thing you want to have to do is take off your gloves, search around to pull out your pass, etc., etc. Bolton doesn’t typically have much in the way of lift queues to begin with, but we haven’t experienced any sort of issues, just smooth sailing onto the lifts through the automated gates without even having to trouble any of the lift attendants. I have to think it’s pretty cost effective if even Bolton Valley is willing to invest in it for all their lifts.