J.Spin

This storm has started up here, so the overnight BTV NWS map updates will be the last ones ahead of the storm. For the advisories map, the notable change around here was the pushing of Winter Storm Warnings northward into eastern Addison County. For the Event Total Snowfall map, a quick toggling between this version and the previous one shows some increases in projected accumulations along the higher elevations of the spine, with some decreases in the Champlain Valley, Upstate New York, and some lower elevations to the east and west. An area of 18-24” shading has appeared in the Mt. Mansfield stretch of the spine, and the point forecast there is topping out around 26” on top of whatever they picked up overnight. The point forecast at our site has seen a small bump to the 6-12” range, which I would typically expect to be form the back side/upslope portion, but it generally seems to be due to the fact that the forecast for today was increased to the 3-7” range.

Event totals: 1.1” Snow/0.17” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.1 inches New Liquid: 0.15 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 7.3 Snow Density: 13.6% H2O Temperature: 33.8 F Sky: Light Snow (3-12 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 6.0 inches

The BTV NWS map updates for the afternoon are in, and I’ve added them below. Winter Storm Warnings are now appearing in a number of areas, and there was a definite bump upward in the projected accumulations map; accumulation tiers have been pushed outward a bit from the spine, and there’s a touch of that 18-24” shading appearing in the Rutland area. Our forecast has seen just a slight uptick here, with something in the 4-10” range expected through Sunday at 7:00 P.M.

No! First clean, then wax. Wax on, wax off, and don’t forget to clear your mind - lesson not just vehicles only, lesson for whole life. Whole life have a balance, everything be better. You live up here in the mountains, so you know the deal; our Subies don’t get daily washes so they can sit in the driveway to get gawked at by the neighbors – they’re too busy doing their real job of actually getting us up our driveway.

It looks like we’ve gotten to the point where BTV NWS can decide what they want to do with respect to alerts and projected accumulations for incoming Winter Storm Malcolm. There are Winter Weather Advisories across a lot of the north country, with some Winter Storm Watches farther south. Projected accumulations through 7:00 P.M. Sunday look like they're topping out in the 12-18” range along the spine based on the shading. The point forecast here at our site in the valley suggests 4-9” through the period, which seems in synch with the 6-8” shading for our area, and the 10-18” for the Mansfield elevation forecast jives as well.

We’re loving the mountain snowfall details along the spine as always, but most importantly at this stage of the season, it’s good to see that they’re feeling the potential is there to put down that base snow we need. I didn’t see it in the current discussion, but if they want to discuss the amount of L.E. going into the snowpack, we’re also happy to hear about that. On that note, I cored the pack here at our site ahead of this next system to see what this system does down here in the valley overall. The L.E. in the snowpack here came in at 1.01” this morning, which is about what I expected.

So Phin… as I sit here enjoying your various (enthusiastic) posts in the thread, I’m going to suggest taking a moment to reflect on the state of affairs with regard to the upcoming weather. I know you’ve been looking for that slam dunk, knock-it-out-of-the-park, wall-to-wall snow, big synoptic storm to hit your NNH place. It’s not that those don’t happen sometimes, but in my opinion, the real magic up here in the mountains of NNE is the ability for respectable wintry things to happen in many, many different setups/patterns. I really have no idea if this is a “good” weather pattern, or “bad” weather pattern, because the whole concept seems highly subjective and nuanced anyway, and it gets muddied even more when weenies are involved. In any event, I’d just say think about where you sit with respect to snow potential for this upcoming storm relative to 99% of the population of the east coast. We obviously don’t yet know how this storm is going to turn out, but even just the lead up you’re experiencing right now is something you can hopefully stick in your pocket and pull out the next time you’re stressed about how the winter has been going.

Thanks PF – I do see that there’s some mention of QPF amounts now in the latest BTV NWS AFD., but I wanted to get your thoughts on the synoptic/upslope L.E. split since you had that map. It sort of feels like the BTV NWS is in a bit of a holding pattern on this storm with no headline yet, but maybe they’re waiting because the potential outcomes is still so dicey here, or they just consider it one of those storms where the impacts of significance are all so high in elevation that there’s no big concerns for where the bulk of the population lives. If they’re going to do a headline or any additional advisories, I guess there’s still 24 hours for them to assess model output.

That’s great PF – 0.5”+ of L.E. would be a significant addition to the snowpack at the resorts. Of course, it looks like it’s a NAM-based accumulations map, so it’s presumably overdone on L.E. unless they have fixed that issue. The good news is that whatever happens on the front end of this storm, it’s still likely to be an addition to the L.E. in the snowpack for the mountains. Whether it’s rain, slop, wet snow, snow, whatever, it doesn’t seem that the warmer parts of this storm really have a combination of L.E., temperatures, and duration around here that the snowpack in the mountains couldn’t handle it. Even down here in the valley, the snowpack could certainly take some liquid, because it’s actually still somewhat dry. I was shoveling off our deck the other day, and the snow was still powdery all the way through (I was worried that it would have been wet and adhered to the deck, but it was all dry). It’s certainly a dense powder (the total snowpack here has a bit over an inch of liquid in it, although I’m not sure when I last cleared the snow from the deck), but there’s still room for some liquid. I know from being up at the mountain that the snowpack is pretty dry there as well, and even more substantial overall. How much L.E. are you expecting from the front end of the storm?

I totally agree that they’re hitting things correctly for the majority of the population, but I guess I’m just used to the way the BTV NWS typically seems to give sufficient attention to the mountains as well. Doesn’t GYX cover the Presidentials? Obviously there’s no population there, but it’s a huge alpine recreation area of interest to a lot of people, and it’s hard to believe that it’s simply going to be all rain there. Does the weather in the Presidentials get covered only in a special recreation forecast? I guess ultimately these AFDs aren’t really for the public anyway, but the BTV NWS clearly knows that skiers and other mountain recreationalists are using them. I find them to be an excellent resource when trying to plan ahead for skiing, other winter recreation, etc.

I know you guys are a bit farther east than we are over here in VT, but that latter part of the long term GYX discussion sort of comes off as sensationalist gloom and doom talk… at least with respect to NNH and northwest Maine. I get it that this is expected to be a mainly rain event for the coastal plain, and I’m not sure how much snow is on the ground there anyway, but thinking this system is going to bring those northern mountainous areas to bare ground is a bit surprising. We’ve got over an inch of liquid in the snowpack here at our site in the valley, and those famously snowy areas up there at elevation along the ME/NH border must have even more than that. And regardless of the initial track, most models show how those areas are affected by the backside snows. I don’t often read the GYX discussion, but it almost feels like some of the comments in there are in line with that conversation we had here about the snowiest areas of their forecast zone being far removed (whether geographically or just in terms of familiarity) from the office.

I’m not sure if we’re quite there on the liquid equivalent with this event, but some of the models are definitely getting close. The BTV NWS AFD isn’t talking too much about total liquid yet, but there is definitely a chance for a solid contribution to the snowpack at elevation. The snowline isn’t expected to be right down to valley level, but pretty low overall based on the current thoughts from the 12Z guidance: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 315 PM EST Wed Jan 13 2021 .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... It will be elevation dependent, with snow levels likely around 1000ft at the onset of precipitation. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 250 PM EST Wednesday...As the system lifts north of our region, we should see precipitation transition to all snow. Orographic lift in northwest flow should produce terrain driven snow showers. Based on the latest forecast data, see no reason to change the previous forecaster`s thinking regarding this elevation-dependent event. Early estimates for this forecast are around 0.5"-2.5" in the valleys, 2"-6" in the mid- slopes, and the higher peaks seeing close 8"-11" between Friday night through early Sunday morning. Still watching data trends closely for any shifts that would require changes based on thermal profiles or low track. To describe where models are with 12Z guidance, the GDPS sits farthest west (low near Vermont), near the UKMET. The ECMWF takes the low center across the Maine/NH border, while the GFS remains closer to Maine with the low track. A westward track would focus snow across New York and keep Vermont mostly rain. An eastward track would favor snow, but less precipitation as a whole.

There’s little doubt that snowfall/snowpack are generally below average up here, even well below average in terms of snowpack for some spots, but it’s probably a bit unnerving in your case because it’s your first season at your new place and I’m sure you’d love it to really deliver at an above average pace. Those of us who have lived in this climate for a while have a bit more perspective, and I can tell you that the current state of things is really not that unprecedented. I know that the Randolph CoCoRaHS site doesn’t have as long a record as I do here, and things may be slightly more off the average pace over there, but I can let the data do the talking. The mean seasonal snowfall through Jan 12 at our site is 64.0”, and this season’s total was 57.9” through yesterday. That total is perfectly respectable, and even ahead of the pace for a number of seasons. Look at the snowfall through Jan 12th for the list of seasons below at our site – some of them were way behind where we are now: 2015-2016: 20.2” 2006-2007: 26.6” 2011-2012: 46.0” 2013-2014: 48.8” 2016-2017: 53.6” In terms of snowpack, we’ve currently got 6.5” at the stake, and it’s basically been up and down in that range for close to two weeks at this point. Average snowpack depth for this date at our site is 9-10”, and looking at my records, there are 6 to 7 seasons where the snowpack for this date was lower than it is right now. Yes, we know if you integrate the snowpack over the season thus far, SDD are well below average. That only matters so much outside the high elevations in the early season because in the lower elevations, as you’ve seen, snowpack can be nearly wiped out in some cases, but it can also quickly return to normal levels. Remember, below average winter weather up here in the mountains of NNE is still really, really wintry, not just in a regional sense, but even in a national sense. From what I’ve seen over the years, the tenor of this board is sort of set by folks living in climates where 80-90% of their time is spent looking for the “next big pattern” or “next big storm”. Many people seem to be more interested in tracking the models and the thrill of big winter weather events vs. the actual practical utility of the snow with respect to everyday life. I just find that it sets up a tenor that is one of frequent dissatisfaction, impatience, and anxiousness. Things may be below average at your Randolph place, but if you think about it, there’s enough snow to ski, the kids can go sledding, the ground is covered, I’m sure there’s ice around for skating, and it’s definitely winter, etc. People often forget that an important perk of a climate like the mountains of NNH is that a below average, or even a way below average winter regime still gives you a very functional winter. There are groups like snowmobilers and other folks who need deep snowpack or ice that are definitely getting short changed a bit with the current state of the winter, but a lot of winter activities are moving along quite well. It’s also hard to see this next storm totally wiping out your snowpack at your Randolph house, and the forecast really does look decent for the coming period around here.

That’s some seriously sage advice – indeed it looks like that NVT vibe is a good fit for you. Of course, having one of those semi-private powder sessions in the local hills like you did yesterday can really help in that regard.

LOL, you’re killin’ us with the freak out episodes Phin – it must be the Mid-Atlantic weenie in you or something. I’m not sure what a “pattern flip” would actually mean for us up here, but my advice would be to not screw with what looks like a potentially great week or more ahead for resurfacing the slopes and/or building the base. If you’re looking for snow along the coast in the Mid-Atlantic, sure there might need to be some change in the pattern, but you have to change your mind set for your NNH place. A classic example I see discussed time and time again in the forum would be zonal flow. I’ve always found it weird how every subforum along the east coast seems to malign a typical zonal flow pattern, because it’s filled with “pacific puke” or whatever. Seriously, if a typical, average, zonal flow isn’t going to cut it for snow in your location, then it’s really the location, not the pattern. In places like that, looking for snow is going to mean constantly looking ten days out for that perfect pattern or storm to line up, because that’s really what it takes to get snow. For things to work out in the snow department in those sorts of locations you’d need a better than average, or in some cases a far better than average pattern that represents just a small percentage of a typical winter. Aside from when things do actually line up, it just seems like an exercise in medium to long-range model watching. It’s literally been snowing on your Randolph webcam this morning. I think you said you were down south for a bit now? Hopefully it’s not that environment getting to you!

It was just cloudy at observations time this morning, but snow has started back up here at our site. The next shortwave isn’t expected to be in the area until tonight, so it’s a bit tough to pinpoint where this snow is coming from, but one of the earlier BTV NWS AFD entries does give a bit of insight: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 315 AM EST Wed Jan 13 2021 NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 306 AM EST Wednesday...Very little change anticipated today from Tuesday acrs our fa. Water vapor shows several weak embedded 5h vorts in the west/northwest flow aloft, along with narrow ribbons of enhanced mid lvl moisture.

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/Trace” L.E. According to the BTV NWS AFD, last night’s snow was from the upper-level shortwave passing just southwest of forecast area. It looks like that system has moved on east of the region, and the next shortwave mentioned in the discussion is one approaching from north of the Great Lakes today. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 27.0 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 6.5 inches

Event totals: 1.2” Snow/0.01” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 29.5 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 6.5 inches

For our typical small to medium bread and butter events, I find that very much the case. The BTV NWS does a fantastic job of accounting for our special microclimates here, but I think the extra upslope, long periods of snow globe flakes, and really high snow ratios we often get can easily screw with the ability to correctly forecast amounts. Even though we know it happens (this current system being a great example), the forecasters probably can’t go around assuming 40:1 or 50:1 ratios for snowfall when they’re putting together the forecasts. When I look at the point forecasts for our site for typical bread and butter events, the eventual snowfall total is often something closer to the higher end of the forecast range, or even above it. The liquid equivalent may actually be close to what the models and forecasters predicted, but the snow growth just ends up being so efficient that you get more inches out of it than the typical forecast would suggest.

Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.01” L.E. After the snowfall started yesterday afternoon, we picked up 0.5” of snow through midnight, and then another 0.4” this morning by observations time. The details for those observations are below. We’d had another 0.3” before I headed off to Burlington today, so I think that’s where this event stands for now at our site. The snow has been falling in very calm air by us, allowing it to be exceedingly fluffy with ratios on the 1:40 or 1:50 range as people have noted. The 0.4” of snow from this morning actually contained <0.01” of L.E., so that’s way up there in terms of dryness. This new snow has increased the depth of the snowpack a bit, but not even to the point of adding a full 0.5” yet because it’s just so light and settles so easily. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.5 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 50.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 20.3 F Sky: Light Snow (5-10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 6.5 inches Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 23.2 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 6.5 inches

There’s no color key on the map, but assuming that lavender magenta coloring is ~50”, that would definitely get most of the glades rolling. Actually, for a 14-day period, 1/3 of that amount would represent a below average snowfall pace for the local mountains; something in the range of ½ of those amounts would likely be about average. With how far they are behind average pace, the mountains around here are certainly due for some make-up snowfall though, so odds would argue that with their relatively low snowfall variance, they’ll run into an above average snowfall period at some point.

It looks like the atmosphere has moistened up enough with this latest push of echoes because I see we’ve got some snow reaching the valley here now.

Wow, I guess so. I wasn’t expecting to see things start to fire up until Tuesday, but it looks like chances begin to appear tomorrow: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 646 PM EST Sun Jan 10 2021 .SYNOPSIS... More active weather is expected this week with several chances of light snow showers. Temperatures mainly in the 20s and 30s will become colder this weekend behind a more substantial low pressure system likely passing to our north. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 630 PM EST Sunday...The advertised mid-level clouds are beginning to filter into our forecast area. Froude numbers also remain quite low with evidence of more low-level clouds upstream. Thus, no change to the forecast. Although, looking into tomorrow for the TAFs, decided that between the upper shortwave, a jet streak to our south, and just enough moisture, that a few areas may be able to produce some light snow accumulations of a dusting to a few hundredths and swapped in light snow for flurries. Everything else remains in great shape. Have a great night! Tomorrow night, snow showers are favored ahead of a more vigorous upper-level trough across northern Vermont. The wave looks to move through rapidly so duration of accumulating snow looks short. Snow ratios should be roughly climatological in the 12 - 13:1 range. Favorable snow growth temperatures in the precipitating cloud layer will be counteracted by fairly warm conditions below that production zone and weak upward motion. The compact forcing will also make location tricky. While northernmost Green Mountains will likely see light snow accumulations, still could see snow showers a little further south than currently indicated into Stowe and into the central Vermont region. While a very minor snowfall of up to an inch, this area has been snow starved as of late, so it will be nice to see for many.