J.Spin

Snowfall was actually rather light when I got home earlier today, with just some 1-2 mm flakes falling, but there’s been a pulse of moisture that’s come in from the NNW direction on the radar, and snowfall has really picked up. The flakes are back up in size, with some more than an inch in diameter, and I’d say snowfall is in the 1”/hr range due to those large flakes. The models have been suggesting that there would be a bit of a resurgence in the snowfall this evening.

I actually went right through your area today on my way up to borderwx and bwt’s neck of the wood’s for a ski tour, so I can pass along some snow updates. There have definitely been some notable differences in snowfall around the area. The rounds of fluff we’ve been getting here along the spine at our site have covered up the old snow pretty well, and monitoring that aesthetic during my travels today turned out to be a decent way to see who’d recently gotten snow. Heading east from our place, accumulations definitely drop off toward the Waterbury Village area, and indeed, all along through the east slope towns of Waterbury Center, Stowe, and Morrisville, there really hasn’t been much new snow that I could see, or what’s fallen has sublimated and disappeared quickly off the snow banks. I’m sure accumulations increase as one heads westward up the mountain road, but down in Stowe Village, I could see that they need a refresher. There was still light snow falling in all those east side towns, but once I left Morrisville and rose up into the Hyde Park area, the increase in snowfall intensity was obvious. That continued right on through Eden. The snowfall was squally, and quite heavy at times, and I was continually having to turn on my headlights and fogs when I’d get into those more intense areas of snowfall. That increased snowfall definitely showed itself with accumulations – up in that area, all the roadside snowbanks were covered up with a solid coating of new snow. I’d say the snow was in general a bit less through Belvidere and Montgomery Center, but once I headed toward the pass on Route 242… well, you guys know what happens up there. I parked at that lower access area on the east side of the pass where I started my tour. The elevation there is about 1,500’ and right from the start of the tour, I was finding 8-12” of new champagne. Above 2,000’ there was 12-16” of accumulation. I was checking snowpack depths along my tour, and I was already getting 40” snowpack readings at just 2,000’. And, it snowed the whole time I was there – most of the time it was what I’d call moderate, probably in the 0.5”/hr range, but there were also stints where it bumped up to the 1”/hr range. The snowfall was typically large, upslope-style flakes, so it can be tough to gauge the snowfall rate with those at times because they just stack up so fast. It’s firsthand experiences like this though that have me rolling my eyes every time somebody gets going with the smack talk about Jay Peak and their snow reporting. My actual experiences reveal again, and again, and again that they really get a ridiculous amount of snow in that area. I’ll put together some images from today’s trip when I get a chance.

Event totals: 3.7” Snow/0.09” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 60.0 Snow Density: 1.7% H2O Temperature: 21.0 F Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 21.0 inches

It looks like there’s the potential for a bit more with a resurgence this afternoon into the overnight: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 711 AM EST Sat Feb 20 2021 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 711 AM EST Saturday...The upslope component will be a major factor for snowfall today, especially later in the afternoon into the evening when it appears shortwave energy will help deepen the cloud layer to support more widespread and heavier orographic snow showers. Given 850 millibar temperatures around -15 celsius, Froude numbers generally 0.5 to 1, and northwest flow in the 925-850 millibar layer, snowfall should be efficient in the spine of the Greens and have a 24 hour total of 3 to 5 inches in this area, with 1 to 3 inches elsewhere in the higher terrain of the Adirondacks and Greens, and most valley locations will be dry or see just some flurries.

Event totals: 3.1” Snow/0.08” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.8 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 80.0 Snow Density: 1.3% H2O Temperature: 18.1 F Sky: Light Snow (3-15 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 21.5 inches

Event totals: 2.3” Snow/0.07” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.0 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 33.3 Snow Density: 3.0% H2O Temperature: 25.3 F Sky: Light Snow (2-12 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 21.0 inches

Yeah, it looks like a good stretch – I’m seeing four systems suggested in the near future on the GFS and other models: 1. The current backside snow of Winter Storm Viola, which the models suggest should run through about midday Sunday 2. Monday into Tuesday, there’s a low pressure system and surface cold front crossing the region 3. Tuesday night into Wednesday, a weak low pressure system passing north of the area 4. Thursday, another system potentially moving along the international border The BTV NWS discussion mentions all of them except the last one, but not any accumulations details at this point of course. The mountains will do what they do with them in any event. That looks like some classic NNE mountain weather though, and it seems like there’s a lot of northern stream vibe to it, so reliability should be up there. It should be fun to watch them continue to put the fluff down on the slopes and hopefully increase the fun factor for any off piste spots that got hardened by that last storm. Based on the numbers, I think it calls for this one…

Event totals: 1.3” Snow/0.04” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.5 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 25.0 Snow Density: 4.0% H2O Temperature: 27.9 F Sky: Light Snow (2-10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 20.5 inches

The stats for my site say that was a 1 in 90-year season, so not something we should really have to deal with very often. It was so anomalous (2.29 σ below the mean) that it still screws with my 14-year data set in a massive way. I always assumed that 100” of snowfall was about the floor at our site for a season, but obviously that season threw that idea right out the window. With that data point in the mix, the data say that we should get a sub-100” season approximately 1 in every 15 years, but that statistic is heavily skewed due to that season. Without that data point, the data say that we should get a sub-100” season roughly 1 in every 66 years. The data are the data of course, and the reality is probably somewhere between those points, but that season has a notable impact on smaller data sets for winter around here.

I was curious to follow up on the actual data for this, so I had a moment to jump on the CoCoRaHS and check out the Feb 18th numbers for your neighbors site. That site only goes back to 2010, but here are the snow depth numbers for Feb 18th since that point: Feb 18th snow depth at NH-CS-10 Year Depth 2010 18.0” 2011 28.0” 2012 11.0” 2013 27.0” 2014 30.0” 2015 35.0” 2016 2.5” 2017 49.0” 2018 21.0” 2019 48.0” 2020 27.0” 2021 28.0” Mean 27.0” S.D. 13.4” Your neighbor was reporting a depth of 28.0” yesterday, so indeed, that’s actually an inch above that 12-year average. There are only a couple of outrageous years with snowpack depths pushing 50” at this time of the year in the data, so I’d say you’re getting a solid representation of the “typical” February snowpack up there. The only conclusion I can come to is that you’re not a curse on your neighbors, or NNE in general as far as I can see. I doubt you’re going to get kicked out of your new place on that issue. And liquid equivalent in that snowpack is really robust – those numbers are not as available (it would take a lot of effort to get those numbers every day without a snow pillow or something similar), but 6 to 7 inches of liquid at that depth is certainly solid. Note that the snowpack there should be increasing for probably another month though under normal conditions.

Event totals: 0.8” Snow/0.02” L.E. We’ve picked up some accumulation from the current system, which has the name Winter Storm Viola. The BTV NWS says there’s a surface low southeast of the benchmark, with multiple shortwaves in deep SW flow. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.8 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0 Snow Density: 2.5% H2O Temperature: 16.9 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 20.5 inches

I wanted to follow up on a couple of PF’s comments as well – he’s making some great points. Mean snowfall through Feb 18th at our site is 108.3”, so if your neighbor is at 112” at this point, that’s probably very close to average. As you said yourself, you’ll have to clear away that Mid Atlantic mindset about winter being anywhere near over, so you can’t think of that 112” as anything near your season total. In an average season, your site has still got 60”+ of snow yet to fall. And that snowpack at your place – I’m not sure you’re going to want to hear this, but it’s possible that it’s even slightly above average. Your neighbor has been reporting snowpack depths between 2 and 3 feet for the past month, and we’d obviously have to look at the data, but that actually could be a bit high for this time of year. Snowpack depth at your site probably peaks at some point in March, so it’s still increasing. Also note that it looks like your neighbor is reporting 6 to 7 inches of liquid in the snowpack, and that may very well be ahead of average pace, even if the depth is about average. Trust in your climate, and don’t let those SNE/MA Cobra Kai guys intimidate you with their sass about flash-in-the-pan progressive systems!

LOL… March? MARCH? At your site, even having to think about March as anything but winter is silly. Yes, the sun angle is higher at that point, and in the bottom 10-20% of seasons you can certainly get a dud March that is sort of spring like, but by and large, it’s just going to keep on snowing for you. Sure, there can be storms where we end up in the warm sector, but the average climatology is going to be quite snowy in March for the NNE mountains. Heck, the average March snowfall here at our site is 30”, and that’s at 500’ - it’s got to be even higher up at your elevation. And you can see what PF said: “Through the end of April is fair game at 1500ft in the northern mountains.” That’s absolutely right, so don’t even give a second thought to March. In an average temperature regime, and certainly in a below average one, you’re going to see a lot of snow in March and April. May is not typically all that snowy around here, even at elevation, because it takes something notably below average with respect to temperatures, but May snow for the mountains certainly happens with some frequency. It’s just not an “every year” sort of thing. But don’t make the mistake of thinking of May as “spring”, or “warm” in the mountains of NNE. People seem to do that just about every season, but it just ends up with moaning and groaning and icons with axes in their heads and all that sort of stuff. The warmth just doesn’t generally take hold up here for real until the June 1st/Memorial Day timeframe. The mean/median date of snowpack melt out here at our site is in the April 15th-20th range, so it’s got to be close to May up at your site. Unless we have some week in the next couple of months with highly anomalous warmth, you’re going to have that snow in your yard around for quite a while. The data from your neighbor suggests there’s seven inches of liquid in the snowpack there, with likely more to come, so that will typically take a long time to fully melt out.

Thanks for the map PF – looks like some nice potential bread and butter for the weekend to top off that dense stuff. That darkest green is pushing toward a half inch of L.E. It’s interesting, I notice that the mesoscale models have naturally been good about indicating the orographic precipitation, and the GFS does as well, but the ECMWF Hi-Res (at least where I view it on Pivotal Weather) seems fairly obtuse when it comes to those nuances. That last storm was quite a shot in the arm for the snowpack with 0.86” of L.E. at our site, and NOHRSC indicates we’re now somewhere in the range of 4-5” of liquid in our snowpack. We have lost a bit of our “Japan Jr.” look with that dense snow, but the stacks on larger surfaces are still out there. And the snowpack is very robust. A little bread and butter or some dessert will be great to bring a bit more aesthetic. It would also be nice to get something lighter on top of that most recent storm, since it left a dense layer and/or crust, depending on latitude. I was going to head out for some runs on Wednesday morning with the boys, but knowing that we picked up that crusty stuff, I figured we’d just wait until these next round of snow heading into the weekend. One of my students hit the backcountry on Wednesday morning and she said it was indeed pretty crusty.

Event totals: 4.5” Snow/0.86” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: 8.6 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 20.5 inches

Event totals: 4.3” Snow/0.85” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.7 inches New Liquid: 0.10 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 7.0 Snow Density: 14.3% H2O Temperature: 32.0 F Sky: Light Snow (1-4 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 20.5 inches

What was expected in the area for liquid equivalent – was that lower than forecast? I assume the snowfall numbers are low generally because of ratios, but we certainly got a good shot of liquid equivalent from this so far. It looks like there’s supposed to be some backside snow as well to top things off, but our point forecast doesn’t have too much in it. It’s snowing here in BTV right now though.

Event totals: 3.6” Snow/0.72” L.E. There were no obvious signs of mixed precipitation in the snow stack during this morning’s analyses, but the snow was obviously very dense – the 3.2” of snow held 0.69” of liquid. That’s essentially a resurfacing of the slopes right there in just 3-4” of accumulation. Snowfall was very light at observations time, with just dense, 1 mm flakes falling. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 3.2 inches New Liquid: 0.69 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 4.6 Snow Density: 21.6% H2O Temperature: 23.9 F Sky: Light Snow (1 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 20.5 inches

Event totals: 0.4” Snow/0.03” L.E. Earlier today we picked up our initial accumulations from Winter Storm Uri, with additional snowfall form the system expected overnight. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 13.3 Snow Density: 7.5% H2O Temperature: 22.8 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 18.5 inches

Saturday was expected to be fairly chilly, with temperatures topping out in the teens F, and without any fresh snow in a couple of days, backcountry touring seemed to be the call. I was looking for something new to explore, so I planned a tour in the southwest corner of Bolton’s Nordic & Backcountry Network. My anticipated route was from the Catamount Trail parking lot on the Bolton Valley Access Road at ~1,200’, head up through the expansive beaver pond meadows in the Mt. Mansfield State Forest, and top out around the Buchanan Shelter at 2,150’ below the Long Trail. On my ascent I was on the lookout for potential descent options, exploring trails on the network such as Moose-ski. The terrain was nice, but generally rolling, so while there were some nice descents, it would be challenging once my climbing skins were removed. The views from that area across the beaver ponds did provide some great views back toward the alpine trails and the Village area. The best powder skiing terrain on the tour was definitely on the slopes below the Buchanan Shelter, with some nice areas of open forest. The only sign of skiing in that area was an old ski track from someone that must have been from at least a couple of storms ago. I suspect traffic is generally light in this area because it requires an approach that’s close to two miles, vs. much quicker access in many other spots on the network. Even without new snow in a couple of days, the snow preservation has been so good, that the quality of the powder is simply spectacular. The snowpack I found was generally in the two- to three-foot range, but there’s such good density in the bottom layers that anything of concern is well covered. The powder out there yesterday was so good that I told my wife and the two of us headed back out to the area for another tour today. The boys were both at work covering shifts for friends, so the fact that it just ended up being the two of us was sort of neat in the context of Valentine’s Day. A few shots from the weekend’s ski touring:

There were no major updates to BTV’s maps this morning – the projected accumulations map was similar to what they had out earlier, and on the alerts map, there had just been an expansion of additional Winter Storm Watches. A text alert this afternoon indicated that we’ve been updated to a Winter Storm Warning here in Washington County, and the alerts map shows that Winter Storm Warnings have been put in place for much of Northern Vermont and Northern New York at this point. The projected accumulations map has much of the northern half of Vermont in the 8-12” range, with a couple spots in the 12-18” shading. Our point forecast here suggests accumulations in the 8-16” range through Tuesday, and I’m seeing 10-18” for the Mansfield point forecast, which is where they do have that area of darker shading.

I’ve seen radar echoes pushing into the area for a while, but nothing beyond that as the precipitation has presumably been getting eaten up by dry air. I just took a look outside and I see that there are actually a few flakes falling now though.

I love the wintry look of icicles as well, although I have to say that I’m glad that we don’t have to deal with them here. We know not to outwardly enjoy them when driving around the countryside with my dad though – he’ll just cringe and shake his head in disgust.

My dad actually spent much of his career as a finish carpenter, and yeah, he’s known for being very meticulous. While he has helped us out with plenty of stuff on our house (deck, interior stuff, etc.), he didn’t actually build it. We bought it as a new build from a local builder (Godbout Development). But as you can imagine, when we were house shopping, we had my dad visit the top candidates to get his thoughts as an expert. When he signed off on this one, we knew it was a quality build.

I’m pretty sure the main component is as Will suggested – really good insulation. I remember our builder and the home inspector both mentioning that. It looks like everything in zones 5 through 8 currently calls for R49 to R60 in the attic, so I’m sure they hit that mark at least. Part of why we don’t have any icicles may be due to the fact that we do have gutters, so they’d catch any liquid that would fall off the roof. But if you look at the snow on the roof, you can see that it’s an even stack, similar to what’s out there on elevated surfaces at ambient temperature. That suggests that melting from the roof is pretty minimal. Obviously when it rains, we’re going to have water percolate through that snowpack and get to the gutters, but if temperatures are above freezing, that water will simply flow through the normal system and drain out.