J.Spin

Good instincts! I just got back to the house and a 2:00 P.M. liquid analysis revealed a 48.6:1 ratio here. That’s from a 3.4” stack, and combining and averaging two snow cores, so it’s certainly a decent sampling of the first part of this event.

Event totals: 3.4” Snow/0.07” L.E. Details from the 2:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 3.4 inches New Liquid: 0.07 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 48.6 Snow Density: 2.1% H2O Temperature: 18.7 F Sky: Light Snow (5 to 20 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 17.5 inches

We’re out at Dartmouth for an appointment at the moment, but I can see on our webcam that we’ve picked up 1-2” of snow at this point. Since we drove to Dartmouth earlier, I can pass along a few observations from the trip. Snow started up at the house at some point in the 8:00 A.M. - 8:30 A.M. range, and snowfall was fairly light as we were heading out. The snowfall stayed with us at that light intensity for most of the trip, although I’m sure it was ramping up somewhat back at the house. In terms of snowpack, I didn’t really notice any obvious differences in depth along much of I-89, which is pretty typical because a lot of the interstate east of Montpelier stays at fairly high elevations with good snowpack preservation. And as PF points out, once you have a certain depth of snowpack that it’s covering most vegetation, the increases or decreases aren’t that obvious. The snowpack decreased substantially once we hit the Sharon area, which I guess is starting to get down into the Connecticut River Valley? The snowpack dropped to a few inches, and here in Lebanon there’s just an inch or so on the ground. It is snowing here in Lebanon, and although it’s just been very light with small flakes, those have increased now to 10-15 mm flakes.

Definitely. When I arrived up at Bolton’s Timberline area this morning, I knew it was going to be good – in the parking lot is was snowing big fat flakes, it was in the 20s F, and there wasn’t a trace of wind. I guess one could make an argument for sunshine being the primo setup vs. the flakes, but I’m definitely partial to the potential for constant refreshing of the surfaces when it’s dumping. The base there is at 1,500’, and up at 2,500’ there was a touch of wind, but nothing too serious – all around the mountain you could just see the upslope snow stacking up on everything. Even the deciduous branches were just loaded with snow, and it was too such a degree that you couldn’t see a thing through areas of the forest that normally let you catch glimpses of adjoining trails. The snowfall rate picked up to something in the 1-2”/hr range, and it was intensely quiet. Between the snow piled on the trees, the air filled with huge, fat flakes, and the ground covered with powder, sounds were muffled to almost nothing. I headed back up with the boys for another session in the afternoon, and while it continued to snow, it was more in the ½-1”/hr range, so certainly decent, but not quite up to the level of what I’d experienced in the morning. That was until we were leaving though – when we were packing up at the car, the snowfall rate was back up in that 1-2”/hr range again and combined with light heading more toward dusk, visibility dropped way down. A few shots from the mountain today:

That’s great – Waterbury is in a ridiculously good spot to hit a lot of great skiing around here – you can hit Stowe, ‘bush, MRG, and Bolton in roughly 30 minutes or less, and there’s tons of convenient backcountry skiing nearby as well. The convenience of being out here in the mountains is just huge with respect to skiing – I was up at Bolton for a session this morning, and then came home and headed back up with the boys for a few more runs in the afternoon. Granted, we’re really close to Bolton, but I never did that sort of thing when I lived in the Champlain Valley. You’re typically looking at a minimum of 45 minutes (a bit less for Bolton) to get to those resorts from the Burlington area, and being out here just lowers the threshold (drive time, gas, overall time commitment, etc.) enough, that you can fit in many more sessions during a typical season.

I swear I read in the BTV NWS AFD just a couple days ago that Wednesday was the “break” day with respect to snowfall before it picked up again on Thursday. Today was pretty darned snowy though – we had roughly 3 inches at the house and Bolton Valley looked to pick up at least double that amount, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they got something similar to Mansfield.

Yeah, snowpack depth was 6.0 on the morning of the 16th, so it’s jumped right up in the past several days. The top is obviously quite fluffy now from all this upslope snow though, so it will be settling with time. We had about 2” of L.E. in the snowpack when I analyzed it yesterday morning for CoCoRaHS, and we’re probably in the 2.25” range now. NOHRSC modeling for our site (plot below) seems to be overestimating the snowpack SWE a bit (dark blue), and I think that’s because the model assumes we banked all of the liquid from the front end of Winter Storm Malcolm in the snowpack. My empirical analyses don’t quite jive with that, and I can only assume that maybe a half inch of liquid percolated down through the snowpack while we were getting that very wet snow or snow/rain mix. That existing snowpack was fairly powdery/granular/porous vs. fully consolidated/refrozen, and maybe the modeling just didn’t have the density/consistency correct. Modeling is matching the snowpack depth (light blue) changes reasonably well though.

Yes, that was the snowfall during the 12 PM to 6 PM block today at our site.

Event totals: 2.9” Snow/0.12” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.7 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 35.0 Snow Density: 2.9% H2O Temperature: 14.0 F Sky: Light Snow (5 to 10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 15.0 inches

I actually think the text statement in and of itself works fine at base level, and most folks intentionally living anywhere in NNE would probably agree. With the mountain component as an image, I think it functions as a bit of an accent or add-on. Obviously, if you’re into mountain weather, mountain recreation, mountain culture, mountain views, etc., then being in the mountains of NNE can sort of work as the icing on the cake, and it can make the NNE experience even better. But not all of NNE is mountains of course, so whoever designed the shirt was pretty astute in that regard, sort of along the lines of “Hey, NNE is great… and we have some cool mountains too if you’re into that.”

Well, we do have shirts if Phin needs one…

Yeah, the BTV NWS has a Special Weather Statement out for heavy snow over here as well, and you can see it on the advisories map. As you’ve said, the stuff that hits here often heads over to your neck of the woods next. Over here we can see that next pulse of moisture coming into the area on the radar. Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Burlington VT 1242 PM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 NYZ035-VTZ005-008-009-017-018-201830- Eastern Essex-Eastern Chittenden-Western Chittenden-Washington-Western Addison-Eastern Addison- 1242 PM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 ...AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ESSEX... NORTHWESTERN ADDISON...SOUTHERN CHITTENDEN AND NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES... At 1241 PM EST...an area of heavy snow was over Shelburne...moving southeast at 20 mph. Locations impacted include... Vergennes, South Burlington, Burlington, Essex, Willsboro, Ferrisburg, Charlotte, Waltham, Bristol, Monkton Ridge, Monkton, Monkton Boro, Williston, New Haven, Bolton, Richmond, Mt. Philo State Park, Hinesburg, St. George and Huntington. This includes Interstate 89 between mile markers 69 and 79, and between mile markers 83 and 87. * visibilities will drop quickly to less than a mile in this area of heavy snow. * sudden and brief snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are possible in this area of heavy snow.

LOL, Mother Nature and her snowy ways definitely changed my day up a bit today. I stopped off at Timberline for a couple of runs on my way to work for a meeting, and it was just dumping 1-2”/hr snowfall with conditions that were off the hook. It was the kind of snowfall where if you don’t move around much during the lift ride, you find a half inch of accumulation pouring off you when you disembark from the lift. It’s midweek of course, so the mountain is virtually deserted, with refills on every run. It was so good that I had to stick around for another run, and then just headed back down to the house for the meeting instead (it was a Zoom meeting anyway). You know it dumped even in the valley, because I found a fresh 2.2" on the boards at home. The boys are home and done with their schooling for the afternoon, so I figured I had to see if they wanted to get out for some turns.

Event totals: 2.2” Snow/0.10” L.E. I’ve considered the previous event completed as of the overnight snow, and after a (very) brief lull, we’re on to the next one, which the BTV NWS AFD is describing as an upper-level trough and shortwave energy, and there’s an associated arctic cold front that they’re highlighting as well due to its propensity for quick accumulations with heavy snow. Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.2 inches New Liquid: 0.10 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 22.0 Snow Density: 4.5% H2O Temperature: 30.0 F Sky: Snow (5 to 20 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 14.5 inches

As I was making my previous post, I just remembered a classic cartoon scene that is too perfect for the thread. I’m sure the scene with the panthers could be used in so many ways… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EM_n9croRyg

There are so many posts in the thread right now just begging for a bread and butter stamp, but having a BTV NWS snow forecast map that essentially screams “bread and butter” is a pretty nice contribution. Their text from that Facebook post is just what skiers like to hear: “More good news if you enjoy winter, we are expecting several more rounds of light accumulating snowfall. Here is our latest expected snowfall map through Jan 22 at 7 PM.” I’d say that “…several more rounds of light accumulating snowfall.” seems to call for this image:

Event totals: 2.9” Snow/0.08” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.1 inches New Liquid: 0.07 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0 Snow Density: 3.3% H2O Temperature: 20.7 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 14.0 inches

Event totals: 0.8” Snow/0.01” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.8 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 80.0 Snow Density: 1.3% H2O Temperature: 23.4 F Sky: Light Snow (1 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 12.5 inches

The flakes have been small thus far and really only amounted to a dusting, but now we’re getting some larger flakes with measurable accumulation – it’s in association with that area of more intense returns hitting our area along the Chittenden/Washington country border:

We had already been planning to head back to the mountain yesterday for an early morning start, since Bolton’s highest elevation lifts (Vista Quad and Wilderness Double) never ran on Sunday due to high winds. They both ran fine yesterday and delivered some great skiing on the upper mountain. Conditions already would have been great, but that extra 3-4” of sub-4% H2O champagne put the icing on the cake, and it continued to snow much of the morning as well. I already summed up the VT resort snow totals for Winter Storm Malcolm in my post yesterday, but ultimately everyone along the spine seemed to be in that 1½ to 2 foot range. Without a heavily consolidated based below what just fell from Malcolm, it’s tough to get settled depths from just this storm because there’s no clear demarcation in the snowpack. Depth checks of the settled snowpack that I made yesterday were all in the 20”+ range, and it was certainly deep up around 3,000’. I did a snowpack depth check right around the 3,000’ mark in the Outlaw Woods, and found 32”, which seemed somewhat reasonable with a depth of 30” reported from the Mt. Mansfield Stake. I can’t speak to the financial aspects, but in terms of snow conditions, it was definitely a solid holiday weekend for the resorts. A couple more shots from yesterday:

We’ve had some general flurries around here at the house today, but it’s been clouding up more as we’ve gotten into the afternoon, and the flakes are starting to come down more consistently. This is a little early per the specifics in our point forecast, but based on the radar, this could be due to the approach of the next system: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1217 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 904 AM EST Tuesday...Weak clipper low pressure system centered north of the Great Lakes will track towards our region today, then cross the area overnight. Light snow showers will spread into our area from the west this afternoon, continuing to spread across the area overnight.

Event totals: 12.2” Snow/1.59” L.E. The rate of snowfall has really wound down since midday yesterday, with just a couple rounds with a tenth of an inch of snow since then. So I think the above totals are likely the final numbers here for Winter Storm Malcolm. I cored the snowpack this morning to get an idea of the change in the snowpack L.E. due to the storm and got 1.84” of liquid. That’s a bit lower than I’d expected based on the amount of total liquid picked up in the storm, and the NOHRSC modeling for our site suggests something more in the range of ~2.3” of liquid in the snowpack. But the snowpack in place before the storm wasn’t all that dense, so perhaps a lot of liquid ended up percolating through. I’ll grab another core today and let it melt just to make sure the first one wasn’t from a poor sampling spot. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 13.3 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 12.5 inches

And with that, we’ve finally hit the 24” mark at the stake for the first time this season. Indeed, most low-angle, well maintained glades should be skiable around here at this point in my experience. They absolutely are of course, since we didn’t just limp to the 24” depth, we sailed right past it. On top of that, it’s not as if we got here with just fluff, it was done with a lot of meaty snow, so way more than just the low-angle glades are viable. From what I’ve seen out on the mountain over the past few days, most medium-angle trees and natural trails are in decent shape as well. People are venturing into the steeper areas off piste too, but you can tell those spots need a bit more snowpack. That’s where the classic 40” rule comes into play. So where does this season sit among others with respect to reaching 24” at the stake? Well, we knew it was on the late side, but now that the data are in, we can take a look. Indeed, we’re pretty far out there with a date of Jan 17th – that’s 1.8 σ beyond the mean date of December 13th, and this puts us in the bottom 3-4% of seasons. It’s probably about once in every 30 seasons or so that it should fall this late based on the available data. Looking at the updated plot below for dates of reaching 24”, you can see that only three other seasons on Mansfield had later dates than this for reaching a 24” snowpack depth. I can’t immediately speak to the robustness of the total liquid equivalent in the pack of the those seasons relative to this season, but none of those seasons hit it with the 30” that this one did: 2015-2016: January 18th, with exactly 24” at the stake 1964-1965: January 20th, with 27” at the stake 1979-1980: January 23rd, with exactly 24” at the stake

Sorry about that, and thanks for the clarification – I updated it in my post. I think I just read the 17” from the SMR Snow and Weather Report text (I usually find that when the resorts have a text detail section, they are pretty good at keeping storm totals up to date vs. the standard 24-, 48-, 72-hour numbers) but the way it was worded made me miss the 1” new part at the beginning. I do see that they’ve got 18” now in the 48-hour total (image below), but I don’t think I would have been able to get to the 19” without your help. Man, look at that amazing storm total consistency all the way down the spine from Jay to the ‘bush – essentially ±1”.

That looks like the biggest jump of the season for the Mansfield snowpack depth. It’s still below average of course, but this coming week could help a bit if more of the typical bread and butter storms roll through.