J.Spin

Event totals: 10.2” Snow/0.60” L.E. We picked up 0.7” of snow through midnight, and then an additional 0.3” this morning, and I suspect that’s the end of the snow from Winter Storm Orlena. The NWS forecast for our area was 7-14” of snow, so the 10.2” we picked up fits right in there. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0 Snow Density: 3.3% H2O Temperature: 27.9 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 19.0 inches

Event totals: 9.3” Snow/0.53” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.1 inches New Liquid: 0.15 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 14.0 Snow Density: 7.1% H2O Temperature: 27.7 F Sky: Snow (4-15 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 18.5 inches

Yeah, the flow has finally turned to the north and west representing the back side of Winter Storm Orlena. It was amazing how far west the storm pushed, and how long it took to get to the backside moisture.

Event totals: 6.9” Snow/0.38” L.E. I headed home from Burlington to Waterbury this afternoon through what seemed like 2”/hr snowfall – the type of snowfall where the road is entirely covered white, and the air is like a thick blanket of white because the huge flakes just block out everything. When visibility is already so low like that, you’ve really got to have your defroster and wipers keeping up with the demands, because any sort of slight obscuring of the windshield basically drops the overall visibility to zero. Add on the fact that the snow is coming down so fast that the plows can’t keep up and you’ve got inches of accumulation on the roadway, so it’s like driving on one of those snow-driving courses. And there’s also that momentary shock when the lights of the car in front of you disappear and you realize you have no idea where the road goes. As always, a fun drive in the Subaru, but you never know if you’re going to get delayed because somebody went off the road and backed up all the cars on French Hill or something. The combination of far fewer cars on the road due to COVID-19/snow day, and the fact that people just really know how to drive in the snow around here, definitely made it an enjoyable run through the maelstrom. I do think the snowfall rate was up near 2”/hr though, because I found 4” on the snowboards when I got home, and my wife said that all that new snow fell in just a couple of hours. Details from the 5:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 4.0 inches New Liquid: 0.21 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 19.0 Snow Density: 5.3% H2O Temperature: 23.7 F Sky: Light Snow (1-5 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 19.0 inches

Event totals: 2.9” Snow/0.17” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.9 inches New Liquid: 0.17 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 17.1 Snow Density: 5.9% H2O Temperature: 17.1 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 15.0 inches

The text came in today that our area had been put under a Winter Weather Advisory, and as the BTV NWS alerts map shows below, all the Winter Storm Watches in VT have moved on to Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings. On the Event Total Snowfall map, we’re in the 8-12” shading as were in the previous update, but that area of 8-12” projected accumulations has expanded significantly in the updated map to cover a fairly broad area east and west of the spine of the Greens. There are also areas of 12-18” shading appearing in NNY. The map still only covers the period through 7:00 A.M. Wednesday, so it won’t include the potential accumulations for Wednesday, Wednesday night, and Thursday on the back side of the system. The point forecast here calls for roughly 6-12” through Tuesday night, but as with the previous forecast, the additional periods aren’t into the accumulations range yet.

I got a text alert this morning that we’ve been put under a Winter Storm Watch, so I guess it’s time to start checking out the BTV NWS maps. On the alerts map, it’s Winter Storm Watches up and down the state of VT, and they also extend westward into parts of NYS. On the Event Total Snowfall map, we’re in the 8-12” shading for the period through 7:00 A.M. Wednesday. The point forecast here calls for 4-10” through Tuesday, but Tuesday night isn’t into the accumulations range yet, so we’ll have to see what’s expected there as we move forward.

I saw in this morning’s BTV NWS AFD that they’ve seen some northward shift in the anticipated precipitation for that upcoming system (Winter Storm Orlena). As always, an important aspect for up here is noting projections for components of the system to move into the Gulf of Maine or the Canadian Maritimes, where they can keep the precipitation going, vs. quickly heading eastward. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 937 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 349 AM EST Saturday...The focus for next week continues to be a coastal low that will impact at least portions of the Northeast. There appears to have been a fairly significant northward shift with the precipitation from previous model runs. Main 500mb low now drifts directly over the North Country by Tuesday night, and enhanced lift helps to invigorate low pressure moving into the Gulf of Maine, rather than allowing the more southern low off of the Delmarva to have a more easterly track. Model consensus, including the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC now have the warm frontal band of snow lift northward well into central and northern Vermont, accompanied with increasing moisture and good omega in the DGZ. Hence, have increased snow chances to likely for the Monday night-Tuesday timeframe, especially from the Champlain Valley eastward. The upper low exits to the east by Wednesday morning, while the surface low(s) move into the Canadian Maritimes. The steadier snow will therefore taper off overnight Tuesday, transitioning to mountain snow showers by Wednesday morning on the favored western slopes as we remain under north-northwest flow. Still a bit early to be talking snow amounts; this system is fairly unorganized with any one of several surface lows having the potential to remain the dominant feature. At this time, several inches of snow does look possible across much of eastern Vermont, but any slight change in upper dynamics and associated surface features could mean more or less snow. Stay tuned for later updates.

Event totals: 3.8” Snow/0.14” L.E. The arctic flakes keep rolling along with the moisture on the back end of this system that’s been well off shore. The models suggest this is likely the last day for these effects though. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 6.8 F Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 13.0 inches

Event totals: 3.7” Snow/0.14” L.E. The snow density was notably increased with this latest round of snow, consistent with the smaller flakes that we often see with this type of cold air. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: 0.05 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 12.0 Snow Density: 8.3% H2O Temperature: 0.5 F Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 14.0 inches

We had snow here at the house most of the morning, and it was generally light, but at times it would pick up with a burst of intensity with larger flakes. Toward the afternoon, the snowfall became a bit more persistent, and we were having longer periods with the large flakes, so it started getting to the point where I was wondering how much the mountains were getting. As it was snowing more heavily here, I checked out the Bolton Valley Base Area Webcam and saw what looked like really heavy snowfall, so I decided to hit the mountain for a couple of runs. The radar showed that another push of moisture was right on the doorstep as well: The radar didn’t look that outrageous, but I got up to Timberline and the snowfall was very heavy, probably 1-2”/hr with visibility of a few hundred feet. It was hard to tell home much had fallen recently, but I was finding 4-6” in many areas on the trails since the previous grooming. In any event, it was definitely a mini powder day up there, with that 4-6” easy to find essentially anywhere that hadn’t been skied recently. Very steep or windblown areas on piste definitely need another synoptic storm or two before they’re in prime shape, but the snow has continued to build up this week in the off piste areas. In areas that haven’t been skied in the past week or two, you’re essentially looking at 30” of unconsolidated snow down to elevations as low as 2,500’ now. There is some dense snow in there form the front end of Winter Storm Malcolm, but since we haven’t had any major thaws, there’s no layer in the snowpack that is fully solidified. My depth checks just went right down through the 30” to what I suspect is the ground, or perhaps a base of a few inches of old snow depending on the location. You really need at least moderate pitch to ski these areas because you’re sinking too deep for shallow slopes. I was on midfats today, so fat skis would help, but pitch is still going to be necessary. I’ve added a couple shots of the snowfall from when I arrived at Timberline today:

Yeah, when your slow periods are like this, you know you’re in a decent winter climate. I was up at Bolton for a bit this afternoon in 1-2”/hr snows. As I mentioned earlier, the slowest periods in the winter are typically when we get pinned under that frigid arctic air for an extended period. Other than that, it’s hard to go a week in midwinter without at least a small event or two.

Yeah, and if you want the epitome of that Northern Greens climate, you really can’t beat being at Jay Peak with some elevation. You’re definitely getting a good dose of it!

Event totals: 3.1” Snow/0.09” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations New Snow: 0.5 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 50.0 Snow Density: 2.0% H2O Temperature: 15.1 F Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 13.5 inches

It’s cool to see that there are folks out there who like that type of snowfall regime, although I’d say it’s still quite a minority of the people I’ve seen on this weather forum. Most of the forum focuses on tracking big winter storms. That’s a huge part of the winter climatology for a lot of places outside the mountains or LES areas though. From the perspective of many skiers, a winter pattern with consistency is where it’s at. Yeah, larger storms are important for base building or getting in those bigger powder days, and they’re awesome when they come around, but it’s the daily snows that will really keep the snow quality up. To get by with generally good to great ski conditions in a feast or famine snowfall climate, there really needs to be great snow preservation, such as is found in the high elevation/dry air climates of some of the higher mountain ranges.

Yeah, we’re into the back side moisture that some of the models like the GFS have been showing for this system (Winter Storm Nathaniel) to potentially persist through Friday/Saturday. It was hard to know how it would play out because only some of the models were showing it, but it looks like it’s there on most global and mesoscale models now. Thus far it’s been fairly light here, with a tenth or two of new snowfall per six-hour block, but we did just get some steadier flakes that dropped another half inch fairly quickly. It’s certainly been keeping us with that classing NNE mountain regime of flakes in the air. As PF would say…

Event totals: 2.0” Snow/0.08” L.E. The snowfall has recently picked up this evening, and it may be associated with the echoes that have popped up on the radar, but the look is very localized over the Champlain Valley at the moment. Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 24.6 F Sky: Light Snow (2-10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 14.0 inches

Event totals: 1.8” Snow/0.08” L.E. We’ve still got a bit of light snow falling on and off today, but there’s not much on the radar that suggests any substantial accumulations for this event in the immediate future. Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 32.4 F Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 14.0 inches

Event totals: 1.7” Snow/0.08” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.5 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 16.7 Snow Density: 6.0% H2O Temperature: 24.4 F Sky: Light Snow (2-5 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 14.0 inches

Event totals: 1.2” Snow/0.05” L.E. Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.2 inches New Liquid: 0.05 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 24.0 Snow Density: 4.2% H2O Temperature: 25.5 F Sky: Light Snow (2-3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 14.0 inches

I’m not sure what time it started, but as of ~6:30 P.M. it was snowing pretty vigorously with some 1 to 2 cm flakes and ~3/4” of accumulation on the boards. It seems like fairly dry snow at this point, but I’ll have some info if I run an analysis later this evening.

Just eyeballing from the plot, it looks like SDD are in the ~50% range for Mansfield? Last week represented a good boost for the snowpack here at our site though – SDD were ~52% of average before that stretch, and now it’s up to 70% of average as of today. We’ve been doing much better on the season with respect to snowfall, but last week was still a solid contribution – it was a fairly symmetrical flip, bringing season snowfall from 8.2” behind average to 8.0” ahead of average.

I just cored the pack for CoCoRaHS today (I think they encourage folks to do it on Mondays anyway) and got 2.51” of liquid. It was actually a good time for a check on the water in the snowpack because there wasn’t any new snow yesterday, which was the first time since Christmas that I haven’t recorded at least a trace here.

The modeling definitely seems to be showing a northward trend with respect to that system, so it looks like we have the potential to get in on some precipitation even this far north. And indeed like you said, the other models do show that signal for moisture hanging around, just not as pronounced as what the GFS had. We’ll have to see where the trends go with this over the next couple of days. I was actually surprised at how quiet this next week looked in the modeling; we typically won’t have a week that quiet around here in the northern mountains unless full blown arctic high pressure moves in and leaves us in that dry, frigid air. Even during that very slow week before this past one, we still had 2 to 3 inches from those very weak bread and butter systems. There’s almost always a little something that pops up, and the mountains do their thing to at least get some flakes out of it.

Yeah, awesome upslope-land views over the past few days. This was definitely on my mind when I was out for a tour yesterday. The consistent snows and temperatures we’ve had over the past several days certainly had me pretty certain that the snow quality was there for lift-served skiing, but the appearance of your arctic hounds led me to go touring instead. When I saw highs in the single digits F for Bolton Valley yesterday, there was no way I wanted to sit still on the lifts in the wind vs. generating my own heat down in the protection of the forest. I got up to the Village around midday, and temperatures were indeed in the mid-single digits F as the forecast had suggested. Between all the backcountry touring and Nordic folks that I saw, there were plenty of people out on the lower trails, but farther out into the higher trails by the Bryant Cabin, I saw probably a handful of groups. Overall, you could tell by the vibe that people felt it was great weather for these types of activities. The additional 4 inches of fresh champagne that the resort had picked up really just served to top off the already crazy levels of fluff that covered everything. I saw some great views as soon as I arrived in the Village, so before gearing up for my tour, I took a quick walk around the Village and grabbed some scenic shots of the snow. Once I started my tour and got into the forest, the amount of snow everywhere was just crazy – it was caked so heavily on the trees that you were surrounded by it on all sides. Starting up the Bryant Trail was like walking into some sort of white cathedral. I made depth measurements of the snowpack during my tour, and I found generally 26-27” around the 2,000’ level, and many spots that are getting dangerously close to 40” up near 3,000’. That’s pretty consistent with what the Mt. Mansfield Stake is showing. At the start of my tour off Heavenly Highway I was on some steep, 30+-degree slopes, and I was setting off sloughs that definitely spoke to the relative snowpack instability from the continuous day after day after day of snows without consolidation. I was perfectly safe where I was the very dense (too dense for great turns where I was exploring actually) forest, but I immediately though about how I wouldn’t want to be exposed in the ravines. So I guess it wasn’t entirely surprising to come to the forum to find a conversation about slides in Tuckerman. A few shots from yesterday’s tour: