J.Spin

Below I’ve got some shots from my travels around the area today along with ski touring in the Big Jay Basin area and the east face of Big Jay. One definite theme out there today was a lot of visages of the sun through moderate to heavy snow with big flakes.

Oh yeah, that disparity is not quite as high as it would usually be. It’s due to a combination of that big storm with the intense band hitting farther south, and also, the Northern Greens are off their usual snowfall numbers for this point in the season due to that slower start. I’m sure PF can indicate what the snowfall pace is at Stowe relative to average. Average seasonal snowfall here at our site through 2/20 is ~110”, so based on the usual correlation, the local resorts should be somewhere in the 220” range, with Jay Peak on the higher side of that.

I actually did pop over to Sushi Yoshi to get dinner for the family on the way back from Jay Peak this afternoon, and I’d say even that little bit of distance up there from the center of Stowe Village showed some increased accumulations and retention of the fluff to help cover things. I assume it must continue to get better as one heads farther up the Mountain Road?

I was on Big Jay and in the Big Jay Basin area today, so that southeast side of Jay Peak seemed to really get quite a shot of new snow. I can’t say when all of it fell, and I believe I only saw 3” new on the snow report for the resort this morning when I checked. I actually never headed over the pass to the resort side, but I was wondering what it was like in terms of new snow over there. Whatever the setup has been in terms of wind direction and Froude, etc., that Big Jay Basin area today was definitely getting hit. Something similar was going on with Hyde Park and Eden as well, to a lesser degree of course. I actually headed up to the Jay Peak area to tour today because it seemed like they’d generally avoided that mixed precipitation earlier in the week from Winter Storm Uri. Indeed, they did avoid any real crust from what I saw, so obviously that’s going to help a lot with respect to the quality of the subsurface. The resort reported 6-8” from that storm, and although there wasn’t a crust, that snow was still dense. The skiing was indeed fantastic, and as I mentioned, I found as much as 16” of champagne in that area. Compared to last weekend, one can definitely nitpick a bit on the quality of the powder skiing though. The most recent snow is so ridiculously light that it’s easy to get down to the dense Winter Storm Uri snow if you’re on more than moderate/blue pitch. Then you get to that region of dense snow, and if you pressure hard enough, you’ll collapse that layer a bit because the powder below it is less dense. Essentially, the snowpack’s got an upside down issue with respect to those second and third layers down. We’re very much talking first-world powder problems here of course, but I figured it would be good to get the beta out there for anyone else thinking of heading out. Naturally, going as fat as you can will help with respect to staying up in the champagne layer, and heck, if it dumps more tonight, that surface layer of powder will be bolstered to make it even better.

Are you guys getting snow from this current pulse? The BTV NWS AFD did say low Froude Numbers at first (which I think relates to what I saw in the east side towns today), but I think the Froude was supposed to increase eventually.

Yeah, my snow had totally evaporated from both my elevated and ground boards as well today! I measured the most recent 0.6” before heading off for my ski tour in the late morning, and when I got home this evening it was gone. If it accumulated any higher, I’ll never know, since I wasn’t here. It’s such angel dust that it just sublimates I guess. I could tell that it had at least 0.01” of liquid when I was measuring it based on experience, and that would put it right in line with the previous reading as well, so that seemed like the correct L.E. to go with.

Snowfall was actually rather light when I got home earlier today, with just some 1-2 mm flakes falling, but there’s been a pulse of moisture that’s come in from the NNW direction on the radar, and snowfall has really picked up. The flakes are back up in size, with some more than an inch in diameter, and I’d say snowfall is in the 1”/hr range due to those large flakes. The models have been suggesting that there would be a bit of a resurgence in the snowfall this evening.

I actually went right through your area today on my way up to borderwx and bwt’s neck of the wood’s for a ski tour, so I can pass along some snow updates. There have definitely been some notable differences in snowfall around the area. The rounds of fluff we’ve been getting here along the spine at our site have covered up the old snow pretty well, and monitoring that aesthetic during my travels today turned out to be a decent way to see who’d recently gotten snow. Heading east from our place, accumulations definitely drop off toward the Waterbury Village area, and indeed, all along through the east slope towns of Waterbury Center, Stowe, and Morrisville, there really hasn’t been much new snow that I could see, or what’s fallen has sublimated and disappeared quickly off the snow banks. I’m sure accumulations increase as one heads westward up the mountain road, but down in Stowe Village, I could see that they need a refresher. There was still light snow falling in all those east side towns, but once I left Morrisville and rose up into the Hyde Park area, the increase in snowfall intensity was obvious. That continued right on through Eden. The snowfall was squally, and quite heavy at times, and I was continually having to turn on my headlights and fogs when I’d get into those more intense areas of snowfall. That increased snowfall definitely showed itself with accumulations – up in that area, all the roadside snowbanks were covered up with a solid coating of new snow. I’d say the snow was in general a bit less through Belvidere and Montgomery Center, but once I headed toward the pass on Route 242… well, you guys know what happens up there. I parked at that lower access area on the east side of the pass where I started my tour. The elevation there is about 1,500’ and right from the start of the tour, I was finding 8-12” of new champagne. Above 2,000’ there was 12-16” of accumulation. I was checking snowpack depths along my tour, and I was already getting 40” snowpack readings at just 2,000’. And, it snowed the whole time I was there – most of the time it was what I’d call moderate, probably in the 0.5”/hr range, but there were also stints where it bumped up to the 1”/hr range. The snowfall was typically large, upslope-style flakes, so it can be tough to gauge the snowfall rate with those at times because they just stack up so fast. It’s firsthand experiences like this though that have me rolling my eyes every time somebody gets going with the smack talk about Jay Peak and their snow reporting. My actual experiences reveal again, and again, and again that they really get a ridiculous amount of snow in that area. I’ll put together some images from today’s trip when I get a chance.

Event totals: 3.7” Snow/0.09” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 60.0 Snow Density: 1.7% H2O Temperature: 21.0 F Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 21.0 inches

It looks like there’s the potential for a bit more with a resurgence this afternoon into the overnight: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 711 AM EST Sat Feb 20 2021 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 711 AM EST Saturday...The upslope component will be a major factor for snowfall today, especially later in the afternoon into the evening when it appears shortwave energy will help deepen the cloud layer to support more widespread and heavier orographic snow showers. Given 850 millibar temperatures around -15 celsius, Froude numbers generally 0.5 to 1, and northwest flow in the 925-850 millibar layer, snowfall should be efficient in the spine of the Greens and have a 24 hour total of 3 to 5 inches in this area, with 1 to 3 inches elsewhere in the higher terrain of the Adirondacks and Greens, and most valley locations will be dry or see just some flurries.

Event totals: 3.1” Snow/0.08” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.8 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 80.0 Snow Density: 1.3% H2O Temperature: 18.1 F Sky: Light Snow (3-15 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 21.5 inches

Event totals: 2.3” Snow/0.07” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.0 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 33.3 Snow Density: 3.0% H2O Temperature: 25.3 F Sky: Light Snow (2-12 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 21.0 inches

Yeah, it looks like a good stretch – I’m seeing four systems suggested in the near future on the GFS and other models: 1. The current backside snow of Winter Storm Viola, which the models suggest should run through about midday Sunday 2. Monday into Tuesday, there’s a low pressure system and surface cold front crossing the region 3. Tuesday night into Wednesday, a weak low pressure system passing north of the area 4. Thursday, another system potentially moving along the international border The BTV NWS discussion mentions all of them except the last one, but not any accumulations details at this point of course. The mountains will do what they do with them in any event. That looks like some classic NNE mountain weather though, and it seems like there’s a lot of northern stream vibe to it, so reliability should be up there. It should be fun to watch them continue to put the fluff down on the slopes and hopefully increase the fun factor for any off piste spots that got hardened by that last storm. Based on the numbers, I think it calls for this one…

Event totals: 1.3” Snow/0.04” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.5 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 25.0 Snow Density: 4.0% H2O Temperature: 27.9 F Sky: Light Snow (2-10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 20.5 inches

The stats for my site say that was a 1 in 90-year season, so not something we should really have to deal with very often. It was so anomalous (2.29 σ below the mean) that it still screws with my 14-year data set in a massive way. I always assumed that 100” of snowfall was about the floor at our site for a season, but obviously that season threw that idea right out the window. With that data point in the mix, the data say that we should get a sub-100” season approximately 1 in every 15 years, but that statistic is heavily skewed due to that season. Without that data point, the data say that we should get a sub-100” season roughly 1 in every 66 years. The data are the data of course, and the reality is probably somewhere between those points, but that season has a notable impact on smaller data sets for winter around here.

I was curious to follow up on the actual data for this, so I had a moment to jump on the CoCoRaHS and check out the Feb 18th numbers for your neighbors site. That site only goes back to 2010, but here are the snow depth numbers for Feb 18th since that point: Feb 18th snow depth at NH-CS-10 Year Depth 2010 18.0” 2011 28.0” 2012 11.0” 2013 27.0” 2014 30.0” 2015 35.0” 2016 2.5” 2017 49.0” 2018 21.0” 2019 48.0” 2020 27.0” 2021 28.0” Mean 27.0” S.D. 13.4” Your neighbor was reporting a depth of 28.0” yesterday, so indeed, that’s actually an inch above that 12-year average. There are only a couple of outrageous years with snowpack depths pushing 50” at this time of the year in the data, so I’d say you’re getting a solid representation of the “typical” February snowpack up there. The only conclusion I can come to is that you’re not a curse on your neighbors, or NNE in general as far as I can see. I doubt you’re going to get kicked out of your new place on that issue. And liquid equivalent in that snowpack is really robust – those numbers are not as available (it would take a lot of effort to get those numbers every day without a snow pillow or something similar), but 6 to 7 inches of liquid at that depth is certainly solid. Note that the snowpack there should be increasing for probably another month though under normal conditions.

Event totals: 0.8” Snow/0.02” L.E. We’ve picked up some accumulation from the current system, which has the name Winter Storm Viola. The BTV NWS says there’s a surface low southeast of the benchmark, with multiple shortwaves in deep SW flow. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.8 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0 Snow Density: 2.5% H2O Temperature: 16.9 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 20.5 inches

I wanted to follow up on a couple of PF’s comments as well – he’s making some great points. Mean snowfall through Feb 18th at our site is 108.3”, so if your neighbor is at 112” at this point, that’s probably very close to average. As you said yourself, you’ll have to clear away that Mid Atlantic mindset about winter being anywhere near over, so you can’t think of that 112” as anything near your season total. In an average season, your site has still got 60”+ of snow yet to fall. And that snowpack at your place – I’m not sure you’re going to want to hear this, but it’s possible that it’s even slightly above average. Your neighbor has been reporting snowpack depths between 2 and 3 feet for the past month, and we’d obviously have to look at the data, but that actually could be a bit high for this time of year. Snowpack depth at your site probably peaks at some point in March, so it’s still increasing. Also note that it looks like your neighbor is reporting 6 to 7 inches of liquid in the snowpack, and that may very well be ahead of average pace, even if the depth is about average. Trust in your climate, and don’t let those SNE/MA Cobra Kai guys intimidate you with their sass about flash-in-the-pan progressive systems!

LOL… March? MARCH? At your site, even having to think about March as anything but winter is silly. Yes, the sun angle is higher at that point, and in the bottom 10-20% of seasons you can certainly get a dud March that is sort of spring like, but by and large, it’s just going to keep on snowing for you. Sure, there can be storms where we end up in the warm sector, but the average climatology is going to be quite snowy in March for the NNE mountains. Heck, the average March snowfall here at our site is 30”, and that’s at 500’ - it’s got to be even higher up at your elevation. And you can see what PF said: “Through the end of April is fair game at 1500ft in the northern mountains.” That’s absolutely right, so don’t even give a second thought to March. In an average temperature regime, and certainly in a below average one, you’re going to see a lot of snow in March and April. May is not typically all that snowy around here, even at elevation, because it takes something notably below average with respect to temperatures, but May snow for the mountains certainly happens with some frequency. It’s just not an “every year” sort of thing. But don’t make the mistake of thinking of May as “spring”, or “warm” in the mountains of NNE. People seem to do that just about every season, but it just ends up with moaning and groaning and icons with axes in their heads and all that sort of stuff. The warmth just doesn’t generally take hold up here for real until the June 1st/Memorial Day timeframe. The mean/median date of snowpack melt out here at our site is in the April 15th-20th range, so it’s got to be close to May up at your site. Unless we have some week in the next couple of months with highly anomalous warmth, you’re going to have that snow in your yard around for quite a while. The data from your neighbor suggests there’s seven inches of liquid in the snowpack there, with likely more to come, so that will typically take a long time to fully melt out.

Thanks for the map PF – looks like some nice potential bread and butter for the weekend to top off that dense stuff. That darkest green is pushing toward a half inch of L.E. It’s interesting, I notice that the mesoscale models have naturally been good about indicating the orographic precipitation, and the GFS does as well, but the ECMWF Hi-Res (at least where I view it on Pivotal Weather) seems fairly obtuse when it comes to those nuances. That last storm was quite a shot in the arm for the snowpack with 0.86” of L.E. at our site, and NOHRSC indicates we’re now somewhere in the range of 4-5” of liquid in our snowpack. We have lost a bit of our “Japan Jr.” look with that dense snow, but the stacks on larger surfaces are still out there. And the snowpack is very robust. A little bread and butter or some dessert will be great to bring a bit more aesthetic. It would also be nice to get something lighter on top of that most recent storm, since it left a dense layer and/or crust, depending on latitude. I was going to head out for some runs on Wednesday morning with the boys, but knowing that we picked up that crusty stuff, I figured we’d just wait until these next round of snow heading into the weekend. One of my students hit the backcountry on Wednesday morning and she said it was indeed pretty crusty.

Event totals: 4.5” Snow/0.86” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: 8.6 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 20.5 inches

Event totals: 4.3” Snow/0.85” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.7 inches New Liquid: 0.10 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 7.0 Snow Density: 14.3% H2O Temperature: 32.0 F Sky: Light Snow (1-4 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 20.5 inches

What was expected in the area for liquid equivalent – was that lower than forecast? I assume the snowfall numbers are low generally because of ratios, but we certainly got a good shot of liquid equivalent from this so far. It looks like there’s supposed to be some backside snow as well to top things off, but our point forecast doesn’t have too much in it. It’s snowing here in BTV right now though.

Event totals: 3.6” Snow/0.72” L.E. There were no obvious signs of mixed precipitation in the snow stack during this morning’s analyses, but the snow was obviously very dense – the 3.2” of snow held 0.69” of liquid. That’s essentially a resurfacing of the slopes right there in just 3-4” of accumulation. Snowfall was very light at observations time, with just dense, 1 mm flakes falling. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 3.2 inches New Liquid: 0.69 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 4.6 Snow Density: 21.6% H2O Temperature: 23.9 F Sky: Light Snow (1 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 20.5 inches

Event totals: 0.4” Snow/0.03” L.E. Earlier today we picked up our initial accumulations from Winter Storm Uri, with additional snowfall form the system expected overnight. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 13.3 Snow Density: 7.5% H2O Temperature: 22.8 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 18.5 inches