J.Spin

Event totals: 2.9” Snow/0.04” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.9 inches New Liquid: 0.04 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 72.5 Snow Density: 1.4% H2O Temperature: 15.3 F Sky: Heavy Snow (4 to 20 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 19.0 inches

That really ramped up fast once those stronger echoes came in – we’ve got classic huge upslope flakes falling and we just picked up 1.3” in about 20 minutes, so it’s probably somewhere in the 3”/hr range at this point. I’m planning to run an analysis at midnight, so we’ll see where things stand then. If we’re getting hit that hard down here, the mountains must be getting blitzed.

Ha, great timing on bringing this up – I had just checked that latest GFS run and it’s definitely been bumping up the snow from that moisture being thrown back from the Newfoundland/Labrador low. It’s certainly increased from the 00 Z run back 24 hours ago, but it’s been up and down over the past several days, so it’s definitely something to watch and the next potential one in the pipe after this current system. The GFS has had it for a while, but other global models are also showing it. We’ll see what the BTV NWS is thinking in their next discussion.

There are some stronger echoes appearing on the composite radar now, so we’ll see if they produce anything over this way:

We’ve got snow falling out there now, and it probably started up fairly recently based on the radar:

The BTV NWS AFD indicates that this is a decaying clipper, so it may just be petering out as it heads east: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 632 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 558 PM EST Tuesday...moderate, steadier snowfall after midnight driven by significant warm air advection evidenced by veering wind profiles within an increasingly moist, deep layer ahead of a decaying clipper sliding through southwestern Quebec.

Checking the Mansfield point forecast, it’s got 3-6” through tomorrow night, which is very much in line with those numbers. The Jay Peak point forecast is closing in on the 4-8” range, and they’ve got both spots in that 4-6” darker blue shading on the BTV NWS expected snowfall map. The latest BTV NWS AFD focuses a lot across the lake, where’s there’s a potential hotspot of accumulation and some enhanced Adirondack upslope precipitation associated with a mean 30 knot 925 mb westerly wind. It certainly looks like there’s some decent bread and butter potential via the latest output from various mesoscale models, so we’ll see how it rolls through.

February Totals Days with new snow: 23 Accumulating Storms: 12 Snowfall: 47.2” Liquid Equivalent: 2.75” SDD: 559.5 I’ve put together my numbers for February, and it looks like it came in as a solid winter month in the average range. Liquid equivalent was about a half inch low relative to average, but everything else was pretty solid.

Well, 0.40” of L.E. is bordering on moderate resurfacing territory for the slopes, so that’s definitely worth watching to see if the accumulations call for some turns. This is how it can be done around here though if there aren’t any major synoptic storms in the immediate future.

Thanks for the great summary with the maps PF. This March/April time of year can be when the refreshers are needed even more. If temperatures either stay cold, or stay/get warm enough for corn it’s fine, but if you cycle through warm then back to cold, you end up with hard surfaces without a refresher. Did you see that next potential refresher on Friday/Saturday? It doesn’t look like too much, but it seems to be from that low pressure up near Newfoundland/Labrador that throws some moisture back this way. It looks a bit out of the norm, and I actually have to go form CONUS view to North American view on the maps to get a feel for it. The GFS has been showing it for a number of days, but I’m seeing it on other models as well now. The BTV NWS AFD makes note of that stationary/retrograding low pressure up there, but mentions it more in the context of upcoming winds and temperatures later this week.

Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.04” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 15.0 Snow Density: 6.7% H2O Temperature: 9.3 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 16.5 inches

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.02” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: 26.8 F Sky: Light Snow (2-4 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 16.5 inches

I think that would fall on deaf ears for the most part in the main threads, but it’s nice to see that you’re watching for those northern/upslope systems. This is the thread in which to discuss those. I just took a spin through the latest run of the GFS, and there are 6 to 7 potential systems on there that could affect the area through mid-month. One sort of unique source that’s been on there for several days is that low pressure up near Newfoundland/Labrador that backs up a bit and pushes a little precipitation down this way. I don’t see any of those big synoptic storms you want yet, but it looks like there are plenty of systems that could affect the area over the next couple of weeks.

Following up on the seasonal snowfall averages I noted above, I’ve got the plot for this year’s snowfall progression with respect to average at our site. We had that strong start with a couple of storms in early November that put us well ahead of average for a while, but that surplus gradually languished through both December and January, since both those months fell below average on snowfall. It got to the point that in mid-January, we’d actually lost those early surpluses and fell behind average pace on the season. Although January overall did come in below average on snowfall, the second half of the month through about mid-February brought some modest synoptic storms that helped us get back a bit ahead of average, and then we ran around average for the rest of February to at least hold onto that bit of surplus.

Thanks for the additional detail – that’s great to get that intermediate snowfall number for Killington to know where they stand. It’s nice to know that they’re ahead of average pace with their current snowfall and are having a decent season in that regard. Unfortunately, it’s rare to get that sort of number from the resorts to see where things stand during the season – they’ve got the data of course, and probably have those sorts of numbers for in-house discussions, but it’s just not worth that extra work of trying to post that all the time on the website. It’s also probably not great for marketing when places are way behind average pace. Thankfully, I at least have a rough idea most of the time where the resorts up here in the Northern Greens stand with respect to their seasonal snowfall progress, since I’ve got my running average seasonal snowfall numbers for each day, and they generally run right around 50% of theirs.

Below is the north to south listing of available season snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas: Jay Peak: 235” Smuggler’s Notch: 175” Stowe: 178” Bolton Valley: 154” Mad River Glen: 146” Sugarbush: 132” Pico: 186” Killington: 186” Okemo: 116” Magic Mountain: 107” Stratton: 132” Mount Snow: 143” The totals will typically go from highest to lowest, right down the spine, so if you see substantial deviations from that trend, that’s something to note. I don’t think any of the resorts are quite on average snowfall pace at this point, aside from those SVT areas like Stratton and Mount Snow – possibly because they got in on that big banding storm? In a relative sense, the Killington/Pico area is clearly doing well if they’re ahead of every resort up north except for Jay Peak. Killington/Pico and Jay Peak are probably close to average pace for snowfall? I still think they’re a bit off of average, but closer than most resorts aside from the SVT ones I mentioned above. I’m not sure what happened at Magic, except that they must have missed that big banding, and that’s where seasonal snowfall would be for the SVT resorts if they hadn’t gotten in on that? I think I recall Okemo getting the brunt of some big storm at some point this season? So the fact that they’re reporting only 116” for the season suggests that they have been pretty far off the pace for the most part. There’s clearly been some disparity between average snowfall in the valleys vs. the mountains this season up here in NVT. We’re a touch ahead of average snowfall pace here at our site, but in general, the resorts of the Northern Greens run just about double our snowfall here. Therefore, they should be running around 270” at this point if they were on track with our site. Even if they were just running at an average snowfall pace, they should be at 240-250” by this point of the season, and none of them, even Jay Peak, has reached that point yet. All the resorts of the Northern Greens are definitely behind average snowfall pace for this point in the season (the below average depth at the Mt. Mansfield Stake doesn’t prove that, but it’s at least consistent with it). Skiing hasn’t suffered horribly though in the past couple of months around here though for at least a few reasons: 1. We’re above the traditional 40” off piste skiing threshold depth at the Mt. Mansfield Stake, so essentially everything is well covered and in play. 2. There’s plenty of liquid equivalent in the snowpack, even if the depth at the Mt. Mansfield Stake has been running behind average. 3. We’ve gone through many weeks with no thaws, so there haven’t been any losses to the snowpack, and the snow quality has stayed very high. This is a great example of how those sub-300” and even sub-200” snowfall areas out in the Rockies can provide high-quality skiing most of the time.

I saw that folks were discussing where locations stand on snowfall/snowpack, so I’ve got my numbers below. Mean seasonal snowfall through 2/28 at our site is 121.3 ± 30.7”, and 118.4” is the median value. Snowfall for this season is currently at 135.6”, so about a foot ahead of the mean value, but certainly well within the 1 σ range. Mean snowpack for 2/28 at our site is 15.6” ± 9.5”, and 13.8” is the median value. Snowpack is currently at 18.0”, so that’s very close to average for the date.

My wife just alerted me that she heard pinging on the windows, and we've got some sleet falling here at the house, so there's definitely some colder air up there.

Boy, Stowe’s night skiing was pretty fantastic though – 2,000’+ laps off the Mansfield gondola had to be tops in the state with respect to vertical and quality of lit terrain. You’re right about the cold though; winter days up here can be cold enough, and winter nights are even more brutal. There’s something about the lack of sunlight that just makes the cold even more impactful at night. We’d typically go to Stowe for night skiing when conditions were just right – if there was a storm coming in during the day and into the evening to provide fresh powder, and temperatures were up around 30 F to be able to ski comfortably. We always have unlimited night skiing with our Bolton passes, but we still practice the same approach for night skiing now. The thing about night skiing at most areas from our perspective is that terrain is so limited compared to what is available during the day, that you need something to really up the ante to make it worth it (such as fresh snow and comfortable temperatures, and minimal wind, etc.). Otherwise, we’re just going to ski during the day when the entire mountain is available and temperatures are warmer.

I saw this in the March thread, but it’s more on topic for a general thread. The answer to your question is neither – we just drive over it and pack it down. We’d seriously be shoveling almost every day if we dealt with each round of snow. Also note that the snow is typically extremely dry, so for an inch of snow with just a few hundredths of an inch of liquid in it, you just crush it to dust under the tires or you can let it sublimate and disappear.

I gotta say, the turns were really nice out there today. My boys had hit the mountain on Wednesday and reported nice soft conditions thanks to some warming temperatures, but then my wife was out Thursday night and said the snow was quite hard and icy, at least on piste where she had been skiing on the main mountain. I figured that made sense with temperatures cooling back down, and that’s what I thought would be the theme out there on the mountain today. But there was also all that great snow that PF reported on from Thursday as well, which was at least 8” up above 2,000’, and Chasing Flakes said it was feeling like 10”+ at Jay Peak. It was hard to know what to think, and I was somewhat ambivalent about skiing today. But then while I was working on the computer this morning, I checked the Bolton snow report, saw that they’d picked up 6” in the past 48 hours, and read this text in their detailed report: “Happy Saturday, Boltonites! Today is a great day to get some snow under your feet. We have 38 groomed trails for you this morning and tons of fresh snow still hiding in the woods. Yesterday afternoon there were sightings of 6 inch stashes of powder still in Sleepy Hollow woods and Bolton Outlaw woods!” That sounded just a bit too good to pass up, and it tipped the scales to get me to head up to the hill. We’d been getting snow this morning at the house, but it had just started to transition over to mixed precipitation while I was getting ready to head to the mountain in the early afternoon. The precipitation was generally sprinkles of light rain as I headed up to the Bolton Valley Access Road and eventually changed over to sleet as I rode the Wilderness Double Chair and got up near 3,000’. During my second run, the mixed precipitation decided to change back to snow, and there was a nice period with some big fat flakes coming down. Bolton definitely got in on that Thursday snow, and I think my wife must have just been on those wind scoured trails on the front face of the main mountain, because that’s not at all what I experienced at Wilderness. The groomed slopes were quiet, and the off piste was covered with up to a foot of dense powder. That seems like more fresh snow than there really should have been based on the snow report, so I’m not sure what to think. I also couldn’t even find any signs of crust below the most recent snows, so I’m not sure what to think about that either. I probed all over the place in the 2,000’ to 3,000’ elevation range, and the only real crust I found was a bit of sun crust on the surface of the snow in a couple of exposed areas. Maybe this was one of those setups where the new snow comes in, starts out wet, and bonds to any crust below to sort of remove the demarcation of that layer a bit. Whatever the case, I was pleasantly surprised to find all that bottomless snow out there today. I was thus able to probe the depth of the entire snowpack, and was typically getting depths of 30-40” in the 2,500’-3,000’ elevation range. That makes decent sense, with the snowpack now at 55” on Mansfield at 3,700’. A few shots from today:

My man, you have got to take that plunge and move north to a snowier climate one of these days. I know it can seem intimidating, but you’ve just got to dive in with both feet – I think you’re the kind of guy that could pull it off. Talk to some of the folks here in the thread that have made that sort of move – most of them will tell you it’s one of the best decisions they’ve ever made. If 44-45° N latitude isn’t enough, just keep heading north. Go for it and get rid of dealing with those winter rains!

Event totals: 0.4” Snow/0.02” L.E. Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: 35.6 F Sky: Light Snow (1 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 18.5 inches

Yeah, I see what you’re saying – your data clearly show that there hasn’t been much in the way of big synoptic systems this season in your area. To me, those larger systems that require phasing are always going to be luck of the draw, and that’s why snowfall reliability and season snowfall numbers tend to fall off the father one gets out of the mountains or upslope areas. I guess I’m just used to the climate up here, where those kinds of systems are great when they come, but if not, the much more reliable bread and butter systems are usually around to get the job done. Phin’s area is a bit different from yours though in that he definitely gets in on the daily snows, and you can see from his neighbor’s data that they’ve just had the equivalent of the 4-6” storm he’s looking for over the past several days. They’ve literally picked up more than that in the past week – 7.7” on 0.50” of L.E. That’s the a solid, moderate winter storm right there. Would people really rather have all that snow fall in one day and then have six days of nothing, vs. having snows literally every day? That’s sort of the definition of a feast or famine climate. From a skier’s perspective, that’s really not that optimal for keeping the slopes fresh, unless you’ve got incredible preservation and very low skier traffic. And even from someone interested in winter weather, that seems sort of dull. I guess there are times when people can “have their cake and eat it too”, with both larger systems and daily snows, but it doesn’t always work out like that. One really has to watch out with those bigger systems because the phasing can screw up the nice steady flow of systems in the northern stream. The end result can be a warm system that ruins the consistency of the snowpack, vs. a smaller system that would involve less moisture, but wouldn’t pull up the warm air that a larger system could.

It’s been snowing on and off even down here at 500’ with some bouts of big flakes and a few tenths of accumulation already, so I figured you had to be in the snow up at your elevation. And yeah, larger storms are always going to be hit or miss like that – even up here in snow country those don’t grow on trees. But we’ve had the consistently active pattern that we’re famous for - it’s been a nice week of bread and butter snows. Look at your neighbor’s CoCoRaHS data below – there’s been at least a trace of snow every day up through yesterday, totaling a half inch of frozen L.E. It’s a few inches less than the snow I recorded here due to our fluff factor, but we had 0.51” of L.E., which is essentially the same. No, that’s not quite a full resurfacing of the slopes, but that’s a reasonably wintry week in my view. That’s literally day after day after day of snow – with measurable precipitation and accumulation. It’s the gift that just keeps on giving… but I don’t know, maybe people just get numb to it?