J.Spin

Yeah, March 2010 is the lowest March snowfall I’ve seen here as well, with just 2.1” of snow, and the only other one in that neighborhood was March 2016 with 5.7” of snow. You really need a March that is mostly sunny and mild to get low numbers like 2010, and it has to be low on storms in general too. At this latitude, and especially in the mountains, March is a wintry month. Even if the storm takes a track that puts us in the warm sector, we’ll often get some accumulation on the back side, and it only takes a few of those to at least pull together several inches. Those two months are pretty good examples of the different possibilities I mentioned – that 2.1” of snow for March 2010 came in just one accumulating storm, so that really had to be a month that was either super warm and/or bereft of storms. On the other hand, the 5.7” for March 2016 came from five different storms, and it looks like it was just sort of a warm month with some storms that tracked to the west of us and gave minimal snowfall. This month hasn’t felt like either of those at this point, reinforced by the fact that I was skiing in the teens F up at the mountain this afternoon. We’d also already surpassed the total snowfall for both of those months here at our site by March 3rd. This month just hasn’t seemed like those types of Marches, at least up to this point. I grabbed the CoCoRaHS snowfall data for Phin’s neighbor and pasted it below, and even in those poor Marches, that site pulled in at least double digit snowfall. That’s really impressive. And look at the March and April averages for that site – they indicate that you’re looking at close to 50” of snowfall still to go in an average winter. Phin, It’s probably hard to imagine that sort of snowfall when you’re looking at the models for an obvious, synoptic, all-snow system that’s going to dump on your place. But I step through the operational run of the GFS and see seven systems with chances for snow. And yeah, things aren’t going to play out exactly like that so far out on an operational run, but it looks pretty active. Do watch out though in the main March thread – it can kind of bias one’s outlook at this point in the season if the tenor remains SNE-centric. Most of them want to be done with snowfall at this point unless something fairly big pops up, and they’re generally looking for warmth to melt the snow and move on. March Snowfall at CoCoRaHS site NH-CS-10 Year Snowfall 2010 16.8 2011 52.8 2012 21.1 2013 36.8 2014 34.4 2015 18.1 2016 12.8 2017 43.5 2018 52.2 2019 32.4 2020 16.7 2021 ??? Mean 30.7 S.D. 14.6 April Snowfall at CoCoRaHS site NH-CS-10 Year Snowfall 2010 24.9 2011 26.4 2012 7.3 2013 8.8 2014 5.2 2015 17.2 2016 9.0 2017 19.7 2018 19.3 2019 12.8 2020 37.7 2021 ??? Mean 17.1 S.D. 9.9

We had a few areas of blue earlier, but it’s clouded up a bit more as of late and we’ve got some snow falling. That low pressure is still around up there in NL, so apparently waves of moisture will still affect the area: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 743 AM EST Sat Mar 6 2021 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 658 AM EST Saturday... This weekend will feature quiet and cold weather. Upper level low over Newfoundland will remain parked through early Sunday morning. Will have several waves of moisture drop south across our area, bringing mainly an increase in clouds but also some light mountain snow showers, especially in western facing slopes of Dacks and Greens as flow is largely out of the west.

It’s not an everyday setup to get our snow involving wraparound from a low way up there in NL, but clearly a lot of the guidance was missing something in this one. In the BTV NWS discussions yesterday, they talked about some of the factors: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 936 AM EST Fri Mar 5 2021 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 931 AM EST Friday...Latest forecast soundings and observations continue to show a plethora of dry air within the lowest levels of the atmosphere. In addition, the 12Z NAM no longer shows a moisture saturated DGZ with very weak lift residing within the DGZ. Given these trends, we have continued to lower snow totals across the region with less than 1 inch expected below 1000 ft, 1-3 inches between 1000 and 2000 ft and 3 to 5 inches above 2000 ft. If the dry air continues to hold strong, which is quite likely, snowfall amounts will be reduced further with the early afternoon update. When the spine disappeared and that first pulse hit the mountains on Thursday afternoon, it seemed like it was the start of typical upslope event, but that first portion of the storm from Friday into Thursday was the only one that gave us any measurable accumulation here at our site. From Friday into today it was just an additional trace. I find that the BTV NWS is reasonably conservative with respect to putting out their alerts, so for them to put out some Winter Weather Advisories means that they felt the potential was there. There’s still moisture around this weekend for some potential flakes, and then the next impulse in the stream seems to be in the Tuesday timeframe. That’s pretty marginal at this point because it’s only on some guidance, so we’ll have to see what the trends are with that: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 743 AM EST Sat Mar 6 2021 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 324 AM EST Saturday... a weak shortwave trough moves through the early morning hours on Tuesday and looks to bring maybe a few flakes across the area. Models disagree on if the bulk of the precipitation stays across the international border, but either way this looks to be a rather minor event.

We picked up a couple tenths of an inch of accumulation last night at our site, which was certainly in line with the small flakes I’d seen falling. I figured we were just a bit too far east for the moisture the radar was showing last night, and I’d see more accumulation this morning on my drive through the western slopes to BTV, but at least in the valleys, there wasn’t anything more notable than what we picked up.

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.01” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: 10.8 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 17.5 inches

I didn’t see any notable changes in the BTV NWS alerts map, but there was definitely a bit of a bump in the event total snowfall map. There’s more of that 8-12” shading in the Mansfield area now, and I see that the point forecast there through Saturday is in the 8-18” range. Down here at our site there was a small increase in the point forecast to roughly the 3-7” range.

Driving home from BTV into the mountains on I-89 is always nice because you get those expansive views of the spine from the Mansfield area down through Bolton Mountain and on to Camel’s Hump. Today was one of those days where you got the extra treat of watching a storm roll in during the drive, and I could literally see the spine get enveloped in snowfall from north to south and top to bottom. Then you start to see flakes through the windshield, and the intensity just continues to increase as you push into the mountains. I stopped off at Richmond Market for some groceries, and the snowfall was already picking up with a very wintry wind that had the feel of an incoming system. The snowfall intensity often continues to increase as I head east toward our place, but today it stayed fairly consistent and even dropped off a bit, and I can see on the radar that the moisture is still focused in the CPV and western slopes with a northerly flow. We’re getting some flakes here with a bit of accumulation, but I bet the western slopes are doing better based on the radar.

Ha, that was great! I went through a bunch of their reports over the past month or two, and it looks like a fun cast of characters. How long have they been doing those reports?

With those snow ratios, and the temperature cycling that the existing snow had seen, I knew it was going to be pretty much a “dust on crust” setup out there as you indicated – but with a half foot of snow, at least it’s more of a “Northern Greens” sort of dust on crust experience. I had just a bit of time to stop in at Bolton for some turns on my way in to Burlington yesterday, so I visited Timberline to see how the conditions were faring. My plan was to hit some low-angle stuff on my fat skis, and that was indeed about the only terrain that offered up bottomless turns. Anything above that angle and you were hitting the subsurface – and that subsurface snow on anything that hadn’t been groomed is indeed loud. Moderate angle turns were still decent with that new snow to push back on, but the low-angle powder was the best. I had some nice turns on the mellow inclines of Villager and Spur in the fresh snow. Groomed terrain was also pretty nice where they’d been able to till up the old stuff and get some new snow into it, although that depended on the time they’d groomed. Some spots were groomed before the new snow fell, so it was powder on top of that. The resort was being cautious and hadn’t even open the ungroomed terrain yesterday, and that was probably wise, since the powder made it dangerous in some cases by simply hiding the moonscape below. I think they had reported about a half foot of new snow in the morning report, but I was generally finding 6-8” in my depth checks in the 1,500’ – 2,500’ elevation range. I see they’re reporting 9” in the past 48 hours in this morning’s report. My boys headed up for some turns in the afternoon, and my younger son said it was pretty hilarious in that “It was like skiing powder, but still skiing on the base.” We were talking last night at dinner about how what they skied was literally the antithesis of “bottomless powder”. I guess one could call that “bottomful powder” in that line of terminology. “Dust on crust” also gets that point across, although I typically don’t think of 6-8” of snow when I think of dust. In any event, it was a good aesthetic refresher for the pack both down at the house and up on the hill, and hopefully we’ll have a bit more to add in the next couple of days. A couple images from yesterday:

The BTV NWS felt the impact was enough to put up some Winter Weather Advisories up in parts of the Adirondacks and western slopes of the Northern Greens: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 932 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...Overall, total snow accumulations between 7 PM tonight and 7 PM Friday will be 3 to 6 inches across the aforementioned locations, with 6 to 8 inches possible at elevations above 1000 ft. For such reasons, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect. Due to the fluffy nature of the snow, blowing snow will also be a concern during this time. We’ll see how it plays out, but the map’s got that general 6-8” shading along the spine, and a touch of 8-12” shading up near Jay Peak. The point forecast at our site in the valley is in the 3-6” range, which looks right in line with the event total snowfall map.

This is a perfect example of where those higher annual snowfall numbers come from for the resorts of the Northern Greens. I’ve mentioned in before about how many a casual skier assumes it’s some sort of ski resort marketing BS. “Yeah, right, resort X reports 100” of extra snowfall compared to any of the resorts to the north, south, east, or west of them. – they’re so full of sh!t” The reality of the situation is that when these smaller events happen over the course of 6 to 8 months during a winter season, they simply add up. Obviously the folks in this thread are aware of the snowfall because they see the forecasts and reports from around here in real time, but it won’t stop the typical Monday morning quarterbacks from throwing up the B.S. flags because Jay Peak is somehow reporting a another 300” season when nobody else appears to be close to that number. It’s March now, so many skiers farther south have already checked out and will be oblivious to the fact that it’s still snowing.

Event totals: 6.0” Snow/0.18” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.8 inches New Liquid: 0.04 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: 28.4 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 5 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 20.0 inches

It’s March now, and this is Vermont, so…

We had 0.14” of L.E. here from the event as of morning observations, and now that most of the CoCoRaHS reports for the morning are in, I’m seeing 0.10” to 0.20” of L.E. in general around the area. It’s certainly not a solid resurfacing yet, but it should be enough to up the fun factor of turns a bit. We’ll see if Mother Nature decides to keep working on it over the next few days.

I’m seeing an additional 0.6” here since the morning clearing, so nothing like last night’s rates, but there’s still a nice steady snow coming down out there, with medium-sized upslope flakes topping out in the 1 to 1.5 cm range. The BTV NWS AFD does mention an increase in moisture tonight though, so we’ll be able to see what transpires during that period. I suspect that in many locations in March, the “good news” they start off with could easily be taken sarcastically, but you know in this case with the BTV NWS, it’s not: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 619 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 608 AM EST Wednesday...Good news more energy arrives toward 00z this evening with better moisture, so anticipate another round of light upslope snow showers to develop. Temps warm into the mid 20s to l/m 30s today with winds shifting to the northwest by midday.

Event totals: 5.2” Snow/0.14” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.3 inches New Liquid: 0.10 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 23.0 Snow Density: 4.3% H2O Temperature: 14.7 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 15 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 20.0 inches

You can see a couple of solid pulses crashing into the spine on the radar grab below, and those obviously held some moisture, but the snow growth and huge flakes is what put down such quick accumulation as the ratio shows. The flakes were certainly pouring down at analysis time – it was the sort of snowfall where I dump and reset one board, then go and take care of another, and after you come back to the first one, it’s already got a half inch of new snow on it. The real accumulation started at roughly 11:10 P.M., so that 2.9” that fell was in about 50 minutes. Phin did say we’d be racking up 3 to 4 inches in this area, so we’ll see what’s on the boards in the morning.

Event totals: 2.9” Snow/0.04” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.9 inches New Liquid: 0.04 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 72.5 Snow Density: 1.4% H2O Temperature: 15.3 F Sky: Heavy Snow (4 to 20 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 19.0 inches

That really ramped up fast once those stronger echoes came in – we’ve got classic huge upslope flakes falling and we just picked up 1.3” in about 20 minutes, so it’s probably somewhere in the 3”/hr range at this point. I’m planning to run an analysis at midnight, so we’ll see where things stand then. If we’re getting hit that hard down here, the mountains must be getting blitzed.

Ha, great timing on bringing this up – I had just checked that latest GFS run and it’s definitely been bumping up the snow from that moisture being thrown back from the Newfoundland/Labrador low. It’s certainly increased from the 00 Z run back 24 hours ago, but it’s been up and down over the past several days, so it’s definitely something to watch and the next potential one in the pipe after this current system. The GFS has had it for a while, but other global models are also showing it. We’ll see what the BTV NWS is thinking in their next discussion.

There are some stronger echoes appearing on the composite radar now, so we’ll see if they produce anything over this way:

We’ve got snow falling out there now, and it probably started up fairly recently based on the radar:

The BTV NWS AFD indicates that this is a decaying clipper, so it may just be petering out as it heads east: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 632 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 558 PM EST Tuesday...moderate, steadier snowfall after midnight driven by significant warm air advection evidenced by veering wind profiles within an increasingly moist, deep layer ahead of a decaying clipper sliding through southwestern Quebec.

Checking the Mansfield point forecast, it’s got 3-6” through tomorrow night, which is very much in line with those numbers. The Jay Peak point forecast is closing in on the 4-8” range, and they’ve got both spots in that 4-6” darker blue shading on the BTV NWS expected snowfall map. The latest BTV NWS AFD focuses a lot across the lake, where’s there’s a potential hotspot of accumulation and some enhanced Adirondack upslope precipitation associated with a mean 30 knot 925 mb westerly wind. It certainly looks like there’s some decent bread and butter potential via the latest output from various mesoscale models, so we’ll see how it rolls through.

February Totals Days with new snow: 23 Accumulating Storms: 12 Snowfall: 47.2” Liquid Equivalent: 2.75” SDD: 559.5 I’ve put together my numbers for February, and it looks like it came in as a solid winter month in the average range. Liquid equivalent was about a half inch low relative to average, but everything else was pretty solid.