J.Spin

Driving home from BTV into the mountains on I-89 is always nice because you get those expansive views of the spine from the Mansfield area down through Bolton Mountain and on to Camel’s Hump. Today was one of those days where you got the extra treat of watching a storm roll in during the drive, and I could literally see the spine get enveloped in snowfall from north to south and top to bottom. Then you start to see flakes through the windshield, and the intensity just continues to increase as you push into the mountains. I stopped off at Richmond Market for some groceries, and the snowfall was already picking up with a very wintry wind that had the feel of an incoming system. The snowfall intensity often continues to increase as I head east toward our place, but today it stayed fairly consistent and even dropped off a bit, and I can see on the radar that the moisture is still focused in the CPV and western slopes with a northerly flow. We’re getting some flakes here with a bit of accumulation, but I bet the western slopes are doing better based on the radar.

Ha, that was great! I went through a bunch of their reports over the past month or two, and it looks like a fun cast of characters. How long have they been doing those reports?

With those snow ratios, and the temperature cycling that the existing snow had seen, I knew it was going to be pretty much a “dust on crust” setup out there as you indicated – but with a half foot of snow, at least it’s more of a “Northern Greens” sort of dust on crust experience. I had just a bit of time to stop in at Bolton for some turns on my way in to Burlington yesterday, so I visited Timberline to see how the conditions were faring. My plan was to hit some low-angle stuff on my fat skis, and that was indeed about the only terrain that offered up bottomless turns. Anything above that angle and you were hitting the subsurface – and that subsurface snow on anything that hadn’t been groomed is indeed loud. Moderate angle turns were still decent with that new snow to push back on, but the low-angle powder was the best. I had some nice turns on the mellow inclines of Villager and Spur in the fresh snow. Groomed terrain was also pretty nice where they’d been able to till up the old stuff and get some new snow into it, although that depended on the time they’d groomed. Some spots were groomed before the new snow fell, so it was powder on top of that. The resort was being cautious and hadn’t even open the ungroomed terrain yesterday, and that was probably wise, since the powder made it dangerous in some cases by simply hiding the moonscape below. I think they had reported about a half foot of new snow in the morning report, but I was generally finding 6-8” in my depth checks in the 1,500’ – 2,500’ elevation range. I see they’re reporting 9” in the past 48 hours in this morning’s report. My boys headed up for some turns in the afternoon, and my younger son said it was pretty hilarious in that “It was like skiing powder, but still skiing on the base.” We were talking last night at dinner about how what they skied was literally the antithesis of “bottomless powder”. I guess one could call that “bottomful powder” in that line of terminology. “Dust on crust” also gets that point across, although I typically don’t think of 6-8” of snow when I think of dust. In any event, it was a good aesthetic refresher for the pack both down at the house and up on the hill, and hopefully we’ll have a bit more to add in the next couple of days. A couple images from yesterday:

The BTV NWS felt the impact was enough to put up some Winter Weather Advisories up in parts of the Adirondacks and western slopes of the Northern Greens: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 932 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...Overall, total snow accumulations between 7 PM tonight and 7 PM Friday will be 3 to 6 inches across the aforementioned locations, with 6 to 8 inches possible at elevations above 1000 ft. For such reasons, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect. Due to the fluffy nature of the snow, blowing snow will also be a concern during this time. We’ll see how it plays out, but the map’s got that general 6-8” shading along the spine, and a touch of 8-12” shading up near Jay Peak. The point forecast at our site in the valley is in the 3-6” range, which looks right in line with the event total snowfall map.

This is a perfect example of where those higher annual snowfall numbers come from for the resorts of the Northern Greens. I’ve mentioned in before about how many a casual skier assumes it’s some sort of ski resort marketing BS. “Yeah, right, resort X reports 100” of extra snowfall compared to any of the resorts to the north, south, east, or west of them. – they’re so full of sh!t” The reality of the situation is that when these smaller events happen over the course of 6 to 8 months during a winter season, they simply add up. Obviously the folks in this thread are aware of the snowfall because they see the forecasts and reports from around here in real time, but it won’t stop the typical Monday morning quarterbacks from throwing up the B.S. flags because Jay Peak is somehow reporting a another 300” season when nobody else appears to be close to that number. It’s March now, so many skiers farther south have already checked out and will be oblivious to the fact that it’s still snowing.

Event totals: 6.0” Snow/0.18” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.8 inches New Liquid: 0.04 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: 28.4 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 5 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 20.0 inches

It’s March now, and this is Vermont, so…

We had 0.14” of L.E. here from the event as of morning observations, and now that most of the CoCoRaHS reports for the morning are in, I’m seeing 0.10” to 0.20” of L.E. in general around the area. It’s certainly not a solid resurfacing yet, but it should be enough to up the fun factor of turns a bit. We’ll see if Mother Nature decides to keep working on it over the next few days.

I’m seeing an additional 0.6” here since the morning clearing, so nothing like last night’s rates, but there’s still a nice steady snow coming down out there, with medium-sized upslope flakes topping out in the 1 to 1.5 cm range. The BTV NWS AFD does mention an increase in moisture tonight though, so we’ll be able to see what transpires during that period. I suspect that in many locations in March, the “good news” they start off with could easily be taken sarcastically, but you know in this case with the BTV NWS, it’s not: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 619 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 608 AM EST Wednesday...Good news more energy arrives toward 00z this evening with better moisture, so anticipate another round of light upslope snow showers to develop. Temps warm into the mid 20s to l/m 30s today with winds shifting to the northwest by midday.

Event totals: 5.2” Snow/0.14” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.3 inches New Liquid: 0.10 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 23.0 Snow Density: 4.3% H2O Temperature: 14.7 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 15 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 20.0 inches

You can see a couple of solid pulses crashing into the spine on the radar grab below, and those obviously held some moisture, but the snow growth and huge flakes is what put down such quick accumulation as the ratio shows. The flakes were certainly pouring down at analysis time – it was the sort of snowfall where I dump and reset one board, then go and take care of another, and after you come back to the first one, it’s already got a half inch of new snow on it. The real accumulation started at roughly 11:10 P.M., so that 2.9” that fell was in about 50 minutes. Phin did say we’d be racking up 3 to 4 inches in this area, so we’ll see what’s on the boards in the morning.

Event totals: 2.9” Snow/0.04” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.9 inches New Liquid: 0.04 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 72.5 Snow Density: 1.4% H2O Temperature: 15.3 F Sky: Heavy Snow (4 to 20 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 19.0 inches

That really ramped up fast once those stronger echoes came in – we’ve got classic huge upslope flakes falling and we just picked up 1.3” in about 20 minutes, so it’s probably somewhere in the 3”/hr range at this point. I’m planning to run an analysis at midnight, so we’ll see where things stand then. If we’re getting hit that hard down here, the mountains must be getting blitzed.

Ha, great timing on bringing this up – I had just checked that latest GFS run and it’s definitely been bumping up the snow from that moisture being thrown back from the Newfoundland/Labrador low. It’s certainly increased from the 00 Z run back 24 hours ago, but it’s been up and down over the past several days, so it’s definitely something to watch and the next potential one in the pipe after this current system. The GFS has had it for a while, but other global models are also showing it. We’ll see what the BTV NWS is thinking in their next discussion.

There are some stronger echoes appearing on the composite radar now, so we’ll see if they produce anything over this way:

We’ve got snow falling out there now, and it probably started up fairly recently based on the radar:

The BTV NWS AFD indicates that this is a decaying clipper, so it may just be petering out as it heads east: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 632 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 558 PM EST Tuesday...moderate, steadier snowfall after midnight driven by significant warm air advection evidenced by veering wind profiles within an increasingly moist, deep layer ahead of a decaying clipper sliding through southwestern Quebec.

Checking the Mansfield point forecast, it’s got 3-6” through tomorrow night, which is very much in line with those numbers. The Jay Peak point forecast is closing in on the 4-8” range, and they’ve got both spots in that 4-6” darker blue shading on the BTV NWS expected snowfall map. The latest BTV NWS AFD focuses a lot across the lake, where’s there’s a potential hotspot of accumulation and some enhanced Adirondack upslope precipitation associated with a mean 30 knot 925 mb westerly wind. It certainly looks like there’s some decent bread and butter potential via the latest output from various mesoscale models, so we’ll see how it rolls through.

February Totals Days with new snow: 23 Accumulating Storms: 12 Snowfall: 47.2” Liquid Equivalent: 2.75” SDD: 559.5 I’ve put together my numbers for February, and it looks like it came in as a solid winter month in the average range. Liquid equivalent was about a half inch low relative to average, but everything else was pretty solid.

Well, 0.40” of L.E. is bordering on moderate resurfacing territory for the slopes, so that’s definitely worth watching to see if the accumulations call for some turns. This is how it can be done around here though if there aren’t any major synoptic storms in the immediate future.

Thanks for the great summary with the maps PF. This March/April time of year can be when the refreshers are needed even more. If temperatures either stay cold, or stay/get warm enough for corn it’s fine, but if you cycle through warm then back to cold, you end up with hard surfaces without a refresher. Did you see that next potential refresher on Friday/Saturday? It doesn’t look like too much, but it seems to be from that low pressure up near Newfoundland/Labrador that throws some moisture back this way. It looks a bit out of the norm, and I actually have to go form CONUS view to North American view on the maps to get a feel for it. The GFS has been showing it for a number of days, but I’m seeing it on other models as well now. The BTV NWS AFD makes note of that stationary/retrograding low pressure up there, but mentions it more in the context of upcoming winds and temperatures later this week.

Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.04” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 15.0 Snow Density: 6.7% H2O Temperature: 9.3 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 16.5 inches

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.02” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: 26.8 F Sky: Light Snow (2-4 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 16.5 inches

I think that would fall on deaf ears for the most part in the main threads, but it’s nice to see that you’re watching for those northern/upslope systems. This is the thread in which to discuss those. I just took a spin through the latest run of the GFS, and there are 6 to 7 potential systems on there that could affect the area through mid-month. One sort of unique source that’s been on there for several days is that low pressure up near Newfoundland/Labrador that backs up a bit and pushes a little precipitation down this way. I don’t see any of those big synoptic storms you want yet, but it looks like there are plenty of systems that could affect the area over the next couple of weeks.

Following up on the seasonal snowfall averages I noted above, I’ve got the plot for this year’s snowfall progression with respect to average at our site. We had that strong start with a couple of storms in early November that put us well ahead of average for a while, but that surplus gradually languished through both December and January, since both those months fell below average on snowfall. It got to the point that in mid-January, we’d actually lost those early surpluses and fell behind average pace on the season. Although January overall did come in below average on snowfall, the second half of the month through about mid-February brought some modest synoptic storms that helped us get back a bit ahead of average, and then we ran around average for the rest of February to at least hold onto that bit of surplus.