J.Spin

LOL Phin, I know you pointed out the other day that you’ve sort of got those requisite weenie gripes that you have to post to stay sane… but others of us wouldn’t be doing our jobs if we didn’t push back with a dose of reality as well. We did just have four storms in the past week… storms that were forecast by the models extremely well, and I specifically made that post with the snow totals at our site from those systems to highlight how the systems had delivered after we’d discussed them. The irony is that we’re literally in the middle of another storm right now, and then there are three more shown in the models through Thursday. I highlighted those potential systems in that post as well. Don’t let that Mid-Atlantic winter mentality trick you into thinking that nothing is happening because there’s not some blockbuster storm on your doorstep. I do see weenies in the forum frequently underplay most smaller systems because they’re waiting for the next “fix” of a big system, or smaller snows are just a nuisance to them, or whatever. Heck, I’ve seen them mentally melt the snow and move on before the system even arrives. I get it, many of them live in feast or famine climates farther south where smaller systems either rarely happen, or the snow just melts away soon after it stops, or whatever. You don’t live there. And it does seem that systems getting “shredded” has been the latest fad terminology in the sub-forum this season. Yes, there’s ongoing research about potential changes in various aspects of atmospheric circulation, but looking from the outside, the conversations seem rather arbitrary and driven by thoughts like “Why did that system that was shown on some model a week out for my tiny little corner of the planet disappear on me?” or “There’s got to be a reason that we’re not getting those twice weekly coastal systems bombing out over the benchmark like we always do… there just has to be!” In the end, it simply seems like the stochastic processes of weather, but it’s a “discussion” forum, so folks have to discuss something. Let the late Bill Paxton help you out a bit here with some perspective…

Great additions of all those snowy eastern North America spots. Those MI and NY sites have always seemed to be tops for relatively low elevation areas due to that lake influence. If it weren’t for elevation, it would basically be no contest on the annual snowfall for those sites sitting downwind of those moisture sources. Some of those sites actually could be in contention for the highest i annual snowfall on the entire continent for those elevations, simply because it’s hard to get to quite those levels on the west coast right down near sea level. If those sites are getting up to 1,000’ or more in elevation though, it might not quite cut it vs. spots like Alyeska. While they report an average of 213” a season there at their base elevation of 250’, that quickly rises to 530” at mid-mountain. If there are any of those sites off the lakes that are really snowy down near sea level though, it would seem like they could be in contention. I always check on the Chic Chocs as well to see what the latest averages are that they’re reporting, and I continue to see numbers in the range of 240”, 275”, and even close to 300”, but I’ve just never seen anything yet that has them really pushing well past that 300” mark. I’ve even checked out Newfoundland and Greenland to see if anything has yet popped up to really suggest numbers pushing past that 300” barrier, but I tend to find numbers in the 150” to 250” range. Part of the issue is that as you head farther north, snow preservation becomes fantastic, but being on the eastern side of a continent in the northern hemisphere, you’re moving into a much drier climate. And with the cold temperatures, bodies of water are frozen much of the winter and can’t contribute to snowfall like they otherwise would. As we know, the Northern Greens have sort of a stacked setup in many aspects of acquiring snow in that they’ve got some decent elevation, decent latitude, ~4,000’ of relief from the lowlands off to the northwest, the shape of the range is in the form of a 250-mile long N-S spine that’s somewhat perpendicular to prevailing winds, they’re downwind of the Great Lakes to get moisture from that source, they’re close enough to the coast to get in on most coastal storms to some degree, etc., etc. There probably are some spots in eastern North America that average more annual snowfall than the high elevations of the Northern Greens, but I just haven’t found anything consistent enough yet to really make the case. It’s likely one of those situations where there’s just no one in those places observing it year after year, while we’ve got the resorts here that are doing it in a fairly public way, constantly. Obviously there are many folks that take issue with the numbers that come out of places like Jay Peak, since they’re a business, and getting snow is certainly in their best interest. That issue of trustworthiness comes up frequently here in the thread, but the ridiculous snowfall they seem get there was only reinforced, yet again, when we were there in the backcountry skiing in 20” of champagne on Sunday. That’s sort of the same thing going on with those sites downwind of the lakes though – there may be sites that are getting more overall frozen winter moisture (such as Mt. Washington in NH), but in the end, the highest snowfall “numbers” might end up coming out of places that get a solid amount of moisture and capitalize on it with snow that has the dendritic structure for incredible loft. We know the Northern Greens often do that extremely well, and that could be a “secret sauce” component among all those factors contributing to the snowfall that I listed above that pushes the numbers over the top.

Phin, your site has been really interesting to watch thus far this winter to learn about the climate there. It’s funny, because your neighbor has obviously been reporting detailed CoCoRaHS observations from that area for several years, so we certainly could have monitored things closely there if we’d wanted to get a feel for the climate, but there’s no replacement for having someone actively reporting and engaging in conversation here in the thread to really get the whole picture. Your area clearly gets in on those daily NNE mountain snows. As the table below shows, there’s been at least a trace of snow on 21 out of 25 days so far this month at your neighbor’s NH-CS-10 CoCoRaHS site. That’s actually the same number of days with snow we’ve had here at our site (VT-WS-19), so it’s very comparable in that regard. You may be getting at something with the “Jack of all trades” line of thinking though. And it’s not as if your site is even just average in those various categories – it’s basically well above average in everything. But seeing this month’s data from your neighbor’s site, side by side with the data for the same period from our site (see table below), it’s obvious that something is different. The month has basically felt about average here at our site with respect to snowfall, and the numbers speak to that, but the numbers for your neighbor’s site this month are probably a bit behind average pace for whatever reason. I’m starting think that maybe your area is a bit more dependent on synoptic systems vs. the Northern Greens? I wouldn’t have thought that based on the fact that you certainly seem to get in on the daily snows, but maybe your area really capitalizes more on those synoptic systems to get to those annual snowfall averages? This month does seem like it’s been a bit lean on those larger synoptic systems, and maybe that’s the difference. And I know at times it feels like you’re not getting a lot of snow, or seems like the snow is infrequent, but you have to remember some of the sites that people are reporting from in this thread. You’re literally getting reports from PF on the eastern flanks of Mansfield, and now bwt from Jay Peak, and various other sites throughout the Northern Greens from people that live here or are visiting the local resorts. You’re taking some serious big league annual snow totals for sites at elevation in the Northern Greens. These sites almost certainly have the highest annual snowfall in the U.S. east of the Rockies (with sites like Mt. Washington, or at least its eastern flanks, potentially in contention as well), and arguably in all of eastern North America. These sites blow away annual snowfall at the low-tier snowfall resorts in the Rockies like Sun Valley or Lake Louse, and can go head-to-head with the typical well-known mid-tier snowfall resorts out there (Vail, Aspen, etc.) Those sites have the advantage of much better snow preservation, but you’ll notice that the annual snowfall is not all that different. I know you’re not trying to directly compare the climate at your house to 3,000’ in the Northern Greens, but seeing these mountain sites with day after day of ridiculous snows that sometimes feel like they come out of nowhere, I imagine it can be a bit hard to keep perspective on just how much show you’re actually getting.

I was surprised at the 2” comment, and that’s definitely how it’s gone at your neighbor’s site, but those were certainly a couple of solid days at the beginning of the month with back-to-back reports of 6”+ for the morning CoCoRaHS submissions:

Well, I think we’ve finished with the systems that were modeled to be in the queue from our conversation back on Friday, so we can now look back at how they played out. That last one was six days out back when we were discussing this week, and it really came through just as the modeling suggested. Here are the totals for each storm at our site: 1. 7.7” 2. 3.0” 3. 0.5” 4. 1.8” Sum: 13.0” I’m typically quite impressed with the way the models can dial in these northern steam systems so well. The GFS suggests that Mother Nature just keeps the systems rolling on in, with another four systems over the next several days: 1. Saturday night 2. Sunday night 3. Monday/Tuesday 4. Wednesday/Thursday There’s definitely some variance among the models, with that last one being somewhat weak and to the north on the GFS, but the pattern certainly looks to stay active the way it’s been this week.

Event totals: 1.8” Snow/0.12” L.E. We’ve mostly cleared out now, so I’d say the above totals are the final numbers for this system at our site. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 3.3 Snow Density: 30.0% H2O Temperature: 24.1 F Sky: Mostly Clear Snow at the stake: 19.5 inches

Event totals: 1.5” Snow/0.11” L.E. I found 1.5” on the boards this morning, and from our webcam I see that there’s been a bit more today that I’ll measure when I get home. There definitely was some dense stuff on the front end of this because it started out with fairly warm temperatures. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.5 inches New Liquid: 0.11 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 13.6 Snow Density: 7.3% H2O Temperature: 28.4 F Sky: Mostly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 20.0 inches

I could definitely see the convenience with respect to the Little Jay when coming from that lower parking lot on Route 242. Last time I was up there with the family in the general Big Jay Basin area, we actually did head more toward Little Jay, and we were in that drainage between Big Jay and Little Jay. I went on Saturday with the intention of just making turns in Big Jay Basin, but I left the option open to head up toward the main lines from Big Jay (in that general Jailbird Chute area) depending on what skin tracks were in place. There turned out to be a well-established skin track that headed right to that area, so my plan was to continue on it until it either disappeared, or I felt that ascending on skins was getting pointless. It’s interesting to note that on Saturday, somewhere above 2,000’ I found the first obvious split in the skin track – I literally came to a “T” junction with a skin track to the left, and the other option to the right. I was heading to the right toward Big Jay Basin, but the left option would have been a good choice for the Little Jay area. It was a totally different situation on Sunday though – there had been a lot more skier traffic, so there were skin tracks and descent tracks all over the place and the obvious distinction of those skin track routes had been obliterated. As I approached the 3,000’ elevation mark on Big Jay on Saturday, the ascent was starting to get pretty silly on skins because progress was just so slow. It was around that point when I found myself sidestepping up a steep, narrow area between some trees where the person setting the skin track had essentially done the same. It was basically just a ski’s width area, so you really couldn’t even make any sort of switchback. That was the point where I knew I wasn’t going to push too much longer on the ascent. The skin track still continued a bit farther, and I stuck with it a little while longer until the track really just became hard to follow in the packed snow of the main chute area. I followed a skin track (perhaps the same one, perhaps not) off to climber’s right briefly before that seemed to disappear, and then I decided I would stop my ascent as soon as I found a reasonable spot for deskinning. I side-stepped up about an extra 30 feet or so through fairly deep powder to a nice sheltered spot where I deskinned and had a snack. I’d been there for just a few minutes when a group of five skiers, ascending on skins, appeared below me. They said hi, and thanked me for setting the skin track. I let them know that I was just following an old one made by others and was stopping where I was. It seemed like they were just going to stop there as well, but they started breaking their own trail above me and continued pushing on. I actually debated putting my skins back on and following now that someone else was breaking trail, but after watching them get maybe another 50 feet or so over the course of 5 to 10 minutes, I knew I’d made the right choice. As a group, I think they were having fun together with respect to the challenge of trying it on skins, and that’s probably the way to approach it. I wanted to get back down into the lower basin because the powder skiing was far better down there anyway, simply because it’s just so steep up on that face of Big Jay. You’re not getting bottomless turns up there unless there’s 2 to 3 feet of powder. The 12-16” of champagne was really nice up there, but you want even more for that upper terrain. Overall it’s some fantastic steep skiing of course, but I was on fat Tele gear and planning for undisturbed powder on more blueish and blackish pitches, not semi-tracked super steeps. So where I topped out was in the 3,000’ – 3,100’ elevation range, and I’d argue that it was already boot pack territory. Boot packing up there would also be quite slow though because you’re pushing up very steep terrain with lots of powder. It would be a serious slog through the snow once you were off your skis if someone hadn’t already broken trail, although you could stick to the more packed snow in some of the main chutes and that might offer some efficiency. I don’t know how far that group of five went, but if they were going all the way to the summit at ~3,800’, it must have been a lot of work. I’m sure one can make it up to the Big Jay summit by skinning that route, but it’s probably something to do if you’ve got a lot of time and want the challenge, it’s certainly not the efficient way to go. I do wonder if there’s an approach from the Little Jay side that perhaps gets it done in a practical way.

Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.06” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 35.8 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 20.5 inches

Event totals: 0.4” Snow/0.05” L.E. Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.05 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 8.0 Snow Density: 12.5% H2O Temperature: 32.9 F Sky: Light Snow (2-5 mm) Snow at the stake: 21.0 inches

Event totals: 3.0” Snow/0.19” L.E. It looks like the totals above will be the final values for this event, so that seems right in line with the 1-3”/2-4” that was in our BTV NWS point forecast. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 27.0 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 23.0 inches

Event totals: 2.9” Snow/0.19” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.6 inches New Liquid: 0.07 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 22.9 Snow Density: 4.4% H2O Temperature: 27.0 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 23.5 inches

We talked about that fantastic snow up in Big Jay Basin on Saturday, and it just kept accumulating throughout the time I was there. Here at the house, the snowfall really ramped up on Saturday night, and I figured it had to really be unloading up there in the basin, so I told the family and we all headed out for a tour on Sunday. The weather was quite a contrast between Saturday and yesterday – Saturday was relatively low visibility with constant snowfall, but yesterday there was hardly a cloud in the sky. The basin area had definitely picked up more snow since I’d left on Saturday, but it was most notable above the road elevation (~1,500’). On Saturday, I found powder in the 8-12” range down there, and it was probably closer to a consistent 12” on Sunday. Up higher, I’d found 12-16” in the 2,500’ range, but my measurements show that the powder depth had increased to roughly 20” when we were there yesterday afternoon. If one considers how dry that snow was, and whatever settling occurred, that was obviously another impressive shot of snow on Saturday night. A few shots from yesterday’s tour in Big Jay Basin:

Yeah, the daytime snow in general seemed to just accumulate at a steady pace with those synoptic-like flakes, but it’s been much more potent more recently this evening with that heavier band pushing toward the spine. Indeed, as I saw mentioned in the thread, there wasn’t much happening in the Champlain Valley today. When I was driving home, though, it quickly became obvious that it was one of those days where the mountains were getting hit. Flakes appeared around Williston, and the snowfall intensity just continued to ramp up each mile as I pushed farther and farther into the mountains. Those drive are always fun because the increase happens gradually, and by the time I reach the house it can be pounding snow, but you’re a bit desensitized to be able to compare to what it was like earlier in the drive. It wasn’t quite like that today, but it was certainly a steady, moderate snowfall here at the house.

Yeah, when I made my analyses earlier this evening, the stack on the snowboard had that obvious heft to it like synoptic snow. And your estimate was good – it was actually slightly higher than 10:1 here at 10.8:1, but I’m sure it’s ±10:1 all around our general area.

Event totals: 1.3” Snow/0.12” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.3 inches New Liquid: 0.12 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.8 Snow Density: 9.2% H2O Temperature: 28.0 F Sky: Snow (3-8 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 22.0 inches

Event totals: 7.7” Snow/0.16” L.E. After a little more snow this morning, we cleared out, so these should be the final totals at our site for Winter Storm Viola. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 14.9 F Sky: Mostly Clear Snow at the stake: 21.5 inches

Event totals: 7.5” Snow/0.16” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.7 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 70.0 Snow Density: 1.4% H2O Temperature: 18.1 F Sky: Light Snow (1-8 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 23.5 inches

Event totals: 6.8” Snow/0.15” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 3.1 inches New Liquid: 0.06 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 51.7 Snow Density: 1.9% H2O Temperature: 20.1 F Sky: Light Snow (4-20 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 24.0 inches

Below I’ve got some shots from my travels around the area today along with ski touring in the Big Jay Basin area and the east face of Big Jay. One definite theme out there today was a lot of visages of the sun through moderate to heavy snow with big flakes.

Oh yeah, that disparity is not quite as high as it would usually be. It’s due to a combination of that big storm with the intense band hitting farther south, and also, the Northern Greens are off their usual snowfall numbers for this point in the season due to that slower start. I’m sure PF can indicate what the snowfall pace is at Stowe relative to average. Average seasonal snowfall here at our site through 2/20 is ~110”, so based on the usual correlation, the local resorts should be somewhere in the 220” range, with Jay Peak on the higher side of that.

I actually did pop over to Sushi Yoshi to get dinner for the family on the way back from Jay Peak this afternoon, and I’d say even that little bit of distance up there from the center of Stowe Village showed some increased accumulations and retention of the fluff to help cover things. I assume it must continue to get better as one heads farther up the Mountain Road?

I was on Big Jay and in the Big Jay Basin area today, so that southeast side of Jay Peak seemed to really get quite a shot of new snow. I can’t say when all of it fell, and I believe I only saw 3” new on the snow report for the resort this morning when I checked. I actually never headed over the pass to the resort side, but I was wondering what it was like in terms of new snow over there. Whatever the setup has been in terms of wind direction and Froude, etc., that Big Jay Basin area today was definitely getting hit. Something similar was going on with Hyde Park and Eden as well, to a lesser degree of course. I actually headed up to the Jay Peak area to tour today because it seemed like they’d generally avoided that mixed precipitation earlier in the week from Winter Storm Uri. Indeed, they did avoid any real crust from what I saw, so obviously that’s going to help a lot with respect to the quality of the subsurface. The resort reported 6-8” from that storm, and although there wasn’t a crust, that snow was still dense. The skiing was indeed fantastic, and as I mentioned, I found as much as 16” of champagne in that area. Compared to last weekend, one can definitely nitpick a bit on the quality of the powder skiing though. The most recent snow is so ridiculously light that it’s easy to get down to the dense Winter Storm Uri snow if you’re on more than moderate/blue pitch. Then you get to that region of dense snow, and if you pressure hard enough, you’ll collapse that layer a bit because the powder below it is less dense. Essentially, the snowpack’s got an upside down issue with respect to those second and third layers down. We’re very much talking first-world powder problems here of course, but I figured it would be good to get the beta out there for anyone else thinking of heading out. Naturally, going as fat as you can will help with respect to staying up in the champagne layer, and heck, if it dumps more tonight, that surface layer of powder will be bolstered to make it even better.

Are you guys getting snow from this current pulse? The BTV NWS AFD did say low Froude Numbers at first (which I think relates to what I saw in the east side towns today), but I think the Froude was supposed to increase eventually.

Yeah, my snow had totally evaporated from both my elevated and ground boards as well today! I measured the most recent 0.6” before heading off for my ski tour in the late morning, and when I got home this evening it was gone. If it accumulated any higher, I’ll never know, since I wasn’t here. It’s such angel dust that it just sublimates I guess. I could tell that it had at least 0.01” of liquid when I was measuring it based on experience, and that would put it right in line with the previous reading as well, so that seemed like the correct L.E. to go with.