J.Spin

We’ve had some general flurries around here at the house today, but it’s been clouding up more as we’ve gotten into the afternoon, and the flakes are starting to come down more consistently. This is a little early per the specifics in our point forecast, but based on the radar, this could be due to the approach of the next system: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1217 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 904 AM EST Tuesday...Weak clipper low pressure system centered north of the Great Lakes will track towards our region today, then cross the area overnight. Light snow showers will spread into our area from the west this afternoon, continuing to spread across the area overnight.

Event totals: 12.2” Snow/1.59” L.E. The rate of snowfall has really wound down since midday yesterday, with just a couple rounds with a tenth of an inch of snow since then. So I think the above totals are likely the final numbers here for Winter Storm Malcolm. I cored the snowpack this morning to get an idea of the change in the snowpack L.E. due to the storm and got 1.84” of liquid. That’s a bit lower than I’d expected based on the amount of total liquid picked up in the storm, and the NOHRSC modeling for our site suggests something more in the range of ~2.3” of liquid in the snowpack. But the snowpack in place before the storm wasn’t all that dense, so perhaps a lot of liquid ended up percolating through. I’ll grab another core today and let it melt just to make sure the first one wasn’t from a poor sampling spot. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 13.3 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 12.5 inches

And with that, we’ve finally hit the 24” mark at the stake for the first time this season. Indeed, most low-angle, well maintained glades should be skiable around here at this point in my experience. They absolutely are of course, since we didn’t just limp to the 24” depth, we sailed right past it. On top of that, it’s not as if we got here with just fluff, it was done with a lot of meaty snow, so way more than just the low-angle glades are viable. From what I’ve seen out on the mountain over the past few days, most medium-angle trees and natural trails are in decent shape as well. People are venturing into the steeper areas off piste too, but you can tell those spots need a bit more snowpack. That’s where the classic 40” rule comes into play. So where does this season sit among others with respect to reaching 24” at the stake? Well, we knew it was on the late side, but now that the data are in, we can take a look. Indeed, we’re pretty far out there with a date of Jan 17th – that’s 1.8 σ beyond the mean date of December 13th, and this puts us in the bottom 3-4% of seasons. It’s probably about once in every 30 seasons or so that it should fall this late based on the available data. Looking at the updated plot below for dates of reaching 24”, you can see that only three other seasons on Mansfield had later dates than this for reaching a 24” snowpack depth. I can’t immediately speak to the robustness of the total liquid equivalent in the pack of the those seasons relative to this season, but none of those seasons hit it with the 30” that this one did: 2015-2016: January 18th, with exactly 24” at the stake 1964-1965: January 20th, with 27” at the stake 1979-1980: January 23rd, with exactly 24” at the stake

Sorry about that, and thanks for the clarification – I updated it in my post. I think I just read the 17” from the SMR Snow and Weather Report text (I usually find that when the resorts have a text detail section, they are pretty good at keeping storm totals up to date vs. the standard 24-, 48-, 72-hour numbers) but the way it was worded made me miss the 1” new part at the beginning. I do see that they’ve got 18” now in the 48-hour total (image below), but I don’t think I would have been able to get to the 19” without your help. Man, look at that amazing storm total consistency all the way down the spine from Jay to the ‘bush – essentially ±1”.

That looks like the biggest jump of the season for the Mansfield snowpack depth. It’s still below average of course, but this coming week could help a bit if more of the typical bread and butter storms roll through.

We know what image a total precipitation forecast map like that calls for, but I'm not quite as suicidal as you to be posting any sort of stuff regarding prognostications for the upcoming week in the main pattern thread.

I’ve updated the north to south listing of available snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas for Winter Storm Malcolm as of today. Things have leveled off up and down the state for the most part, with the storm totals in the Northern and Central Greens typically in the 18-20” range along the spine, and a couple of standouts like Killington and Middlebury nearing the 2-foot mark. Heading south from Okemo, storm totals generally appear to be in the 14-16” range, except for Stratton, which really stands out with the 24” number. The accumulation there must be highly localized because geographically, Stratton is extremely close to Bromley and Magic. Jay Peak: 19” Burke: 9” Smuggler’s Notch: 19” Stowe: 19” Bolton Valley: 19” Mad River Glen: 19” Sugarbush: 20” Middlebury: 24” Suicide Six: 9” Pico: 23” Killington: 23” Okemo: 16” Bromley: 17” Magic Mountain: 16” Stratton: 24” Mount Snow: 14”

Event totals: 12.0” Snow/1.59” L.E. The additional snow that fell this morning was just like what had fallen earlier – right in that 3.5-4.0% H2O range. It’s a piece of cake to shovel, or you could clear it with a leaf blower as well. Or, just pack it down; it compresses quite easily of course. Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.8 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 26.7 Snow Density: 3.8% H2O Temperature: 30.9 F Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 13.0 inches

Yeah, I was even wondering if we were going to get anything overnight, but there was 3”+ on the boards at observations time, and it’s still be coming down fairly steadily. Snow density analysis came in at 3.5%, so this is great topping – even the BV snow report commented on it. We know what this is alright…

Event totals: 11.2” Snow/1.56” L.E. I guess we weren’t nearly at the end of the system yet, because we woke up to another solid accumulation of champagne flakes here. The mountain reported similar accumulations to bring their storm total to 19”. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 3.1 inches New Liquid: 0.11 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 28.2 Snow Density: 3.5% H2O Temperature: 30.9 F Sky: Snow (2-10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 13.0 inches

The family was up at Bolton Valley for a ski session this morning, and I’ll pass along a few updates. The mountain reported an additional 6” of snow as of their early report today, making for a 14” storm total at that point. That will probably go up a bit more for tomorrow since it was still snowing while were there, and indeed the snowfall was heavy at times. They had a resort-wide power outage in the morning (presumably some heavy, wet snow and/or winds brought something down on the Bolton Valley Access Road), so that delayed opening a bit. We’d planned to just do lift-served skiing on alpine gear today, but catching wind of the power outage via the snow report, we brought Telemark gear as well, and ascended via the Timberline uphill route to make a quick run there while we waited for the Timberline Quad to open. We switched over to alpine gear once the Timberline Quad started loading, and the skiing was great. While we were hanging out, we checked total snowpack depth on the Spell Binder trail at around the 2,000’ elevation mark, and generally got depths of 18-20”. Due to high winds, the uppermost lifts (Vista Quad and Wilderness Double) never opened, so we ended up skiing in just the 1,500’ to 2,500’ elevation range on Timberline. I know from my experience at the resort yesterday that the snow was notably drier on the upper mountain, so what we skied today in those lower elevations was a bit on the denser side. The powder had certainly become drier overall with the overnight addition of upslope snow vs. just the dense snow from yesterday, but I bet the snow is even drier in the upper elevations of the main mountain. With that said, the snow at Timberline was still fantastic, with lots of untracked powder available as ski patrol did their checks and other work to get new trails open. The mountain is planning to run all the lifts tomorrow as long as the winds die down, so there could be some nice turns on the lifts that didn’t open at all today. A few shots from this morning:

Event totals: 8.1” Snow/1.45” L.E. There’s still a bit of snow falling out there, so we’ll see if there’s anything else to add to this event overnight. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0 Snow Density: 2.5% H2O Temperature: 30.9 F Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

Event totals: 7.7” Snow/1.44” L.E. The snow definitely dried out substantially with this morning’s round of precipitation – it’s certainly down into upslope snow territory at 3.3% H2O. Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.5 inches New Liquid: 0.05 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0 Snow Density: 3.3% H2O Temperature: 33.4 F Sky: Light Snow (2-12 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 10.5 inches

Yeah, good call – we picked up roughly 1” in the 7:00 A.M. to 8:00 A.M. period.

Event totals: 6.2” Snow/1.39” L.E. The accumulating snow is definitely starting to get more loft to it after some very dense readings yesterday – it had come down to 11.5% H2O (~9:1) by the midnight last night, and as of this morning’s reading, the six-hour stack had come down to 8.3% H2O (~12:1). Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.8 inches New Liquid: 0.15 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 12.0 Snow Density: 8.3% H2O Temperature: 32.5 F Sky: Snow (2-10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

Event totals: 4.4” Snow/1.24” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.3 inches New Liquid: 0.15 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 8.7 Snow Density: 11.5% H2O Temperature: 32.7 F Sky: Snow (2-10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 8.0 inches

The snowpack at the Mt. Mansfield Stake appears to have taken a recent 8” jump to get to 22”, so we’re really knocking on the door to 24” now. With the density of this snow that just fell, it would be very surprising if they didn’t hit 24” by tomorrow.

With Winter Storm Malcolm moving into the area early this morning, there was a major PNW vibe around in the valley – we had huge, moisture-laden flakes falling all morning at the house, and driving through just 2-3” of unplowed snow on the road felt like you were moving through concrete. It reminded me of being back at Snoqualmie Pass/Alpental. I gave Mother Nature some time to continue putting down the new snow, then headed up to the mountain for a session this afternoon. I’d brought gear for both skinning and lift-served skiing, unsure about whether or not there would be COVID-19-related lift queues. When I reached the Timberline Base and saw the Timberline Quad running for the first time this season with virtually nobody there, it was an easy decision to opt for lift-served. There were actually no queues at any of the lifts this afternoon, and it was walk-up all the time with numerous empty chairs, so presumably the opening of more terrain took care of any issues that had been creating backups. In terms of the snow, it was unquestionably dense down at 1,500’. I was actually happy with my choice to go with lift-served turns because I appreciated having some packed snow in places and the ability to wander off to the sides into the powder as desired. The powder would have been a bit easier on my fat skis, but on my midfat Teles it was definitely a workout staying for long periods in the deep, dense untracked snow. I was happy for some quick reprieves on the groomed areas. Groomed terrain was skiing very nicely – the packed snow was certainly dense, but not to the level of that slick, wet pack snow that can get rather grabby. The snow got substantially drier with elevation – in the top 500’ of vertical, say from the Vista Summit on down to 2,600’ or 2,700’, the snow was in a totally different league relative to the base. Jumping into untracked powder made for smooth, easy turns; the snow had just lost enough density that it just wasn’t pushing me around on my midfat Teles. Down below those elevations, the powder began to get a bit more dense, but you could definitely give yourself and extra margin of comfort on a pair of alpine fat skis, or especially a snowboard. As of this afternoon’s additional snow from the storm, we’d picked up 1.09” of liquid equivalent down at the house, so the mountains must have had at least that much, and whatever they did get, it represented a major resurfacing of the slopes. Ropes were dropping all over the place, and within one trip over to the main mountain, I came back to find that they’d opened up Tattle Tale, apparently even the steep headwall section, which speaks to how meaty this snow was. They even had Spillway open on all natural snow, and that’s a steep minefield of boulders and stumps. I figured people were just poaching it until I saw the rope opened at the top. In terms of the depth of new snow that fell from Winter Storm Malcolm, it was difficult to tell because there was already some decent loose snow below this new stuff, and there hasn’t been a major thaw in quite a while to consolidate the base. When I got off the top of the Timberline Quad at the Timberline Summit, I stuck in my measurement pole and it went up to 18”. This represented the entire snowpack at that elevation from what I could tell. Based on occasional probing around and measuring during the afternoon, I came to the conclusion that there must have been at least 8” that had fallen up high, and the resort’s afternoon report says 8” at elevation, so that makes sense. I’ve added a few shots from the afternoon at Bolton Valley below, and you can see from that first shot how the dense snow down at 1,500’ was giving the area a definite PNW feel:

Here’s the north to south listing of available snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas for Winter Storm Malcolm thus far, using data from areas that have made an afternoon update. When MRG came in with 10” as I was working my way down, I figured totals would be well into the teens by the time I got to the southern part of the state, but there were notable ups and downs, and only modest additional increases topping out at the 12” mark. Jay Peak: 5” Smuggler’s Notch: 6” Stowe: 8” Bolton Valley: 8” Mad River Glen: 10” Sugarbush: 6” Pico: 8” Killington: 8” Okemo: 11” Bromley: 8” Magic Mountain: 10” Stratton: 12” Mount Snow: 12”

I haven’t felt that the ECMWF model has picked up terrain nuances/upslope as well as many of the other models lately, for whatever reason.

Ahh, roger that, just needed clarification, it sounds like you’ve got it. I think we’ve got the appropriate analogy for upslope on the back side of synoptic storm in the NNE thread now.

With bread and butter being clippers, shortwaves, LES, etc., I actually think the better fit for the upslope on the back side of a big synoptic storm is…

On that note, it looks like the flow is starting to shift on the radar. You can see the echoes just beginning to push past the Chittenden/Washington county line and the snow is starting to pick up here.

Event totals: 3.1” Snow/1.09” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.9 inches New Liquid: 0.19 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 4.7 Snow Density: 21.1% H2O Temperature: 32.7 F Sky: Light Snow (1-5 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 7.5 inches

I just got back from an afternoon session at the mountain, and even with just this first part of Winter Storm Malcolm, there’s really only one way to describe its impact for the resorts around here…