J.Spin

Well remember, for the vast majority of people there, it simply means a 5 to 10-minute walk back to their dorm or apartment in town. Or, it just means not leaving their dorm or apartment at all for their afternoon class that’s been cancelled. For the small percentage of folks that live out of town it’s a huge hassle, but canceling classes (especially for the medical students who essentially have class all day, every day) is a big logistical issue. I definitely didn’t want to drive back and forth to the mountains in this though unless absolutely necessary, so my teaching assistants and I worked extra yesterday so we could cancel our midday meeting today. That was probably the best approach, but not everyone’s Friday schedule would have permitted that option.

Event totals: 6.9” Snow/1.24” L.E. The noontime core analysis contains some of the sleet that fell after this morning’s observations, so the density isn’t fully representative of the current snow that falling. The next analysis should give us an idea of that density. In any event, this last round of precipitation brought another half inch of liquid equivalent, so we simply flew past the 1” L.E. mark for the storm. Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 3.0 inches New Liquid: 0.50 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 6.0 Snow Density: 16.7% H2O Temperature: 25.5 F Sky: Snow (2 to 10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 12.5 inches

We just got the call that UVM is closing as of 1:30 P.M. (a declared "state of campus emergency" due to blowing and drifting snow creating impassable roads and walkways and inaccessible parking lots), so it wasn’t a pre-planned full snow day, but even a half day closing here means that this is a pretty impressive event.

I was going to comment that it was probably still transitioning – I just checked their live webcam and they’re snowing at the main base.

Sleet had generally taken over from the snow grains as the predominant precipitation over the past hour or two, but now we’ve got snow mixing back in here in Waterbury.

I’ve got the latest BTV NWS projected snowfall map below – it does look like they pushed accumulations south a bit vs. yesterday evening. Around here it seems like just a couple inches of tweaking based on the latest guidance, but it could be more impactful in some areas.

It’s interesting that you guys are getting freezing/glazing precipitation farther north – there’s definitely a thick layer atop our pack from the sleet and these snow grains, but the only hint of freezing precipitation I’ve seen was just the faintest whiff of something on the rain gauge at observations time this morning. I was going to say that maybe these snow grains we’re getting are very tiny sleet pellets that are small enough freeze on the way down, but I don’t think that’s it. I’m not sure if sleet even gets that small, and these snow grains have hard, irregular edges like snow grains do. I guess the atmosphere is doing a lot of different stuff around the area right now.

Event totals: 3.9” Snow/0.74” L.E. Since 6:00 P.M. yesterday evening we’ve had some sleet here, but much of the time the precipitation has been very small snow grains. That precipitation type seems to have dominated since the southwest flow of moisture pushed into the area more heavily around midnight. The snow grains have been incredibly small, often 1 mm in diameter at most, and they pack very densely – the 0.8” of accumulation we’ve picked up overnight (which I can tell from handling the core has a bit of sleet in there as well from earlier) contained 0.32” of liquid. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.8 inches New Liquid: 0.32 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 2.5 Snow Density: 40.0% H2O Temperature: 27.8 F Sky: Light Snow (1 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

On the BTV NWS area advisories map there’s been an expansion of Winter Storm Warnings off to the west since my last post, so I’ve added the updated map below. I’ve also included the latest map for projected accumulations, which continues to show the highest totals along the Canadian border. Our point forecast here calls for an additional 8-14” on top of what we’ve had, which may be a bit high relative to the mapping, but we’re right on the edge of the 12-18” shading, so that’s reasonably in sync.

Event totals: 3.1” Snow/0.42” L.E. The family was home due to a snow day, so they were able to put out a noontime board that allowed me to get an intermediate reading on today’s snow density. After the 6:00 A.M. clearing we picked up 0.4” of snow containing 0.08” of liquid, and then from 12:00 P.M. to 6:00 P.M. the accumulation was as detailed below. We had quite a burst of sleet earlier this evening, but there’s also been snow mixed in as well. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.10 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 3.0 Snow Density: 33.3% H2O Temperature: 28.0 F Sky: Sleet/Snow Snow at the stake: 9.5 inches

I got an alert yesterday afternoon that we were upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning in our county, and as the BTV NWS advisory map shows below, the northern counties across NY, VT, and NH are under a similar warning. The updated projected accumulations map suggests the highest accumulations will be along the northern part of the state with areas in the 18-24” shading.

Event totals: 2.4” Snow/0.24” L.E. The snow falling this morning was composed of small 1-2 mm flakes, and I’m not sure what the flake structure was in the wee hours, but the core came in a very straightforward 10 to 1 for the snow to liquid ratio. Driving toward Burlington this morning, the snow accumulations seemed to drop off a bit once I hit Jonesville on the western slopes, and they may have picked up a bit less snow, but I think the shallower snow cover there before the storm was what contributed to much of that impression Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.4 inches New Liquid: 0.24 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 20.7 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 9.0 inches

Correlating data from my site, Mansfield at PF’s ~3,000’ plot should be averaging roughly three storm cycles per season with >24”, two per season with >30”, one per season >36”, one per season >40”, and a cycle of >48” about every other season. I’m not sure if he’s even had a >24” storm cycle yet this season? I think he’s probably due based on the statistics.

I think you’d mentioned she’s at UVM? For UVM specifically to call an official snow day/winter weather day closing it typically has to be something very impactful – it’s probably a once-a-decade sort of occurrence. Since a majority of the students can simply walk to class from their dorms or downtown, the travel isn’t a big issue, and the equipment is on hand to handle most storms. It’s more common for individual classes to be cancelled if professors that live out of town can’t get it due to travel issues. Even without official cancellation though, substantial winter storm days often still feel like snow days because people will trim their schedules for travel reasons, and with the ski culture atmosphere around here you’ll find a lot of people prioritizing that and potentially planning their schedule around it. The local primary/secondary schools will certainly call snow days for much less snow, depending on the timing and intensity of the snowfall.

As of this morning I see we’re under a Winter Storm Watch in the area, and the BTV NWS has a preliminary snowfall map out with areas of NVT showing projected accumulations in the general 12-18” range:

Thanks for the analysis – I haven’t done that one but it’s a nice way to sort of knock out extreme values, and it seems to reinforce my thoughts on that ~160” number.

Event totals: 0.4” Snow/0.01” L.E. We’ve had continued very light snow from this latest shortwave, with a bit more falling as I left the house this morning. We’ll see if there’s anything to add when I check later today. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 27.3 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.01” L.E. We picked up a final tenth of an inch of accumulation overnight from the shortwave that had been affecting the area, but this evening’s snow is being considered part of this next shortwave currently affecting the area as discussed by the BTV NWS. Details from the 8:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0 Snow Density: 3.3% H2O Temperature: 30.2 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 5 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches

Here at our site I recorded 22.5” from that storm cycle, which was about a third of the month’s snowfall. It looks like the other relatively large storm from the month was Winter Storm Harper with 15.2” of snow. I have the summary table for January 2019 at our site below:

My best estimate for annual snowfall here at our site is ~160”. You can see from the table below that the mean for this site during our 13-year period of record thus far is 155.9”, but that’s likely a bit low due to the very aberrant 2015-2016 season. The table shows how that season sticks out like a sore thumb compared to all the others. Indeed, the statistical analysis reveals that season is an incredible 2.24 S.D. below the mean, which is essentially a 1 in 100-year event. It’s a real value that should be included in the data of course, it’s just that the data set isn’t quite large enough to absorb a number like that without taking a substantial hit (that is probably overdone). When that season was first added to the data set, it was such a dramatic difference from all the other seasons that it dropped the snowfall mean down into the 140s, but it’s slowly been creeping back up with help from the past three solid seasons to where it is now. Without that outlier season the average snowfall comes in at 162.9”. That may be a bit high of course, but ~160” seems about where I’d expect it to end up as the 2015-2016 number gets appropriately diluted.

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/Trace L.E. Very light snow/flurries today brought another tenth of an inch of snow that contained less that 0.01” of liquid. Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 26.2 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches

January Totals Accumulating Storms: 10 Snowfall: 34.4” Liquid Equivalent: 3.93” January snowfall this season was surprisingly similar to what we picked in December – probably a bit behind the long term average, but certainly decent and well within a standard deviation of the mean. I think I heard PF mention that January temperatures were well above average around here, so if we can get comfortable temperatures like that and still manage at least a reasonably snowy result, that’s a nice way to run a month vs. getting stuck in the dry, arctic cold. Last January dropped twice as much snow as this one though, so it’s on a whole different level, but I’d say this was a nice wintry month. Checking on season progress, we’re currently at 82.4” of snowfall, which is only about an inch behind average pace. We’ve been maintaining a fairly steady and average snowfall routine for over a month now, and that’s been the trend as we hit roughly the midway point in the snowfall season.

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/Trace L.E. Light snow and flurries started up at some point overnight with this latest shortwave trough affecting the area. As of now, the BTV NWS discussion suggests that potential snow tomorrow would be from a stronger trough with better surface reflection and moisture content, so I’ll try to parse any accumulations out accordingly. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 27.3 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches

Substantial distances of east-west travel in NNE definitely take a while with no interstate and all those mountain ranges and sub-ranges to get around. A little bit of travel inconvenience is part of the charm though, and a small price to pay for all the awesome geography.

LOL PF, you are brave to even post that sort of stuff in that storm thread. But yeah, it looks like our next potential snow events are that Friday/Saturday period, and then on Monday. They’re not super strong signals at this point on all models, but worth watching because those refreshers can really bump up the surface conditions that extra notch for an outing.