J.Spin

I figured that could use a little FYP – you might need to adjust your expectations now that we’re going to be moving into the time of year with potentially more upslope precipitation. Even over here that type of stuff happens, and we’ve got pretty solid radar coverage of the spine of the Northern Greens and meteorologists at BTV that really focus on fine tuning forecasts in the mountains that are just to their east. From what I’ve seen, coverage over there in the Whites is tougher because the radar source is farther away and/or there are so many surrounding mountains. Per that previous discussion, no, you’re probably not going to have a 40” storm sneak up on you out of nowhere in this day and age, but you’re likely to have the potential for a lot of precipitation that might not be visible/expected. I’m pretty sure Alex has experienced some of that, but it’s one of the reasons folks are excited to have another person reporting out of that area – there’s a lot that goes on that the models and radar don’t necessarily catch.

I think most people on the forum would accept it if they had to, but there would likely be some complaining in the process. It’s hard to know the exact distribution on how all of that would fall, but many people aren’t really keen on what they call “nuisance snow”.

On the composite imagining you can definitely see a northwest flow with that appearance of continuous rebuilding via upslope forcing:

As we can see, Raindance doesn’t have any of those blanket (150-200%) of average areas that forecasters will unwittingly still put out in low variance climates where 200% of normal snowfall is actually +5-6 σ from the mean and has less than 0.00003% chance of happening. That 125 sitting right over our site on the map (which I assume is actually for BTV of course) would still be quite a potent season. It would be up there well above +1 σ and put our site in the 200” range for snowfall. It’s certainly not unprecedented, as 2007-2008 delivered more than 200” here, and I guess it shouldn’t be too surprising with the way 2007-2008 is heavily enriched in the applied analogs. The “Locally 130% of higher” listed in this area on the second map showing regions of snowfall deviations would be pushing things above 1.5 σ and snowfall toward 210”+ if it were to happen at our site. That’s still not out of the question, but obviously more easily achieved at the higher variance sites around here vs. the more mountain-influenced, lower variance sites. In any event, very few of our local skiers would complain if we had to negotiate another ‘07-‘08-esque season though.

I was going to mention that as well, so I’m glad folks brought it up. A temperature map with those warm colors on it doesn’t really indicate an issue – especially as one goes further north. In fact, in the heart of winter up here, I’d typically rather see it a bit on the warm side vs. the opposite. Even if there’s no correlation with increased precipitation, at least in means we’re not freezing our azzes off quite as much. PF nicely pointed out where the actual departures start to matter in the north. Of course, the whole thing is moot anyway. The only real utility in these long-range forecasts is for refinement on the development end of the methodologies for eventual use down the road (or I guess something to keep weather weenies occupied); there isn’t any practical forecast utility at this point.

There’s no doubt about some sort of change in the recent precipitation regime at our site – after only 6 days with precipitation from Sep 1-27, we’ve had measurable every day for the past 7 days, with over 3” of liquid. It absolutely feels like more of a fall pattern in the NNE mountains now with rounds of synoptic precipitation scattered in among more showery/unsettled days. We’ve definitely had some uncommon/surprising short term runs with low precipitation recently, but liquid at our site from June through September was 17.55”, which is only 1.94” below average. It feels more like it was the consistency of the precipitation that was off vs. the longer-term monthly/summer totals that would be associated with any sort of long-term drought issue.

Liquid Totals September: 2.79” (-0.96”) Calendar Year: 37.21” (-2.21”) Water Year: 52.31” (-1.07”) So September is complete, and thus the 2020 water year is as well. Both were about an inch below the average I have in my data set, but certainly nothing too extreme. Calendar year water is running a couple inches behind average pace, but has gotten a notable boost with 3-4” of liquid here in the past week.

The “October snow portends poor winter snowfall” myth is always fun to watch run through the forum this time of year. Even down here in the valley we essentially get snow every October, and the subsequent seasons can’t all be bad – or maybe they all have been bad, which means it could be very interesting if we ever get to see what a good snowfall season is like. In any event, I see that one way to address the issue is to look at the way Tamarack did, with a snowfall threshold. If I apply the simple 1” threshold, in the 14 seasons in my data set there are 7 that fall into the category of <1” of October snowfall, and 7 that fall into the category of ≥1” of October snowfall. The mean snowfall for those seasons is 153.1” and 156.7”, respectively. So I’d say that settles the matter rather solidly – snow weenies can stop wishing away October snowfall as some harbinger of doom and finally embrace it. They know they want it to snow in October anyway, so now they don’t have to be conflicted. One would have to be a fool to give up literally inches of additional snowfall each season by forcefully wishing away October flakes.

Well put - I don’t think we were in any sort of real drought in our area, but a 2”+ L.E. storm would definitely take care of any short term dryness. Indeed, it brought the month to 2.79” of liquid here at our site, which is only 0.74 σ below the mean. The new water year starts tomorrow, so today’s entry concludes the 2020 water year with 52.31” of liquid. That’s really just an inch or two below average according to my data, so not consistent with any sort of longer-term drought in our area at this point.

Yeah, as people have noted, the process of going from color to leaf drop is apparently relatively quick up here in general, and this year is doing that typical progression, augmented by that cold spell to push it forward a bit. I assume Mother Nature knows that as we hit October in this area, snow can fall at any time, and the trees are hopefully on a good pace to avoid the type of fiasco that SNE faced several years back when they had that October snow with lots of leaves still on the trees. There are already some of those early shots of snow for the elevations popping up in the models.

Even as of a couple of days ago we were already past my preference for peak down here in our area of the Winooski Valley. Having some fallen leaves on the ground is a nice look, but once bare trees appear, it’s past peak for me, and even as of this weekend we already had some notable areas of stick season trees. Ahead of the precipitation, the winds from this current system are bringing the leaves down like rain in the yard, so after this passes we’re going to be well on our way into stick season.

I do recall seeing that map, and it’s quite a gradient of snowfall from north to south, but I don’t recall that it impressed upon me that areas in the Northeast actually had what one would describe as a “horrible winter”. I see places in northern CT with 60-70” of snow, which seems pretty decent for down there as far as I know. Even down in southern CT, much of the shading is the orange 20-30” range, which isn’t really off from average by more than a foot for those coastal spots is it? I do see now that places like NYC and Long Island are in that brown <20” shading, but aren’t the snowfall averages in the mid-20” range down there anyway? I might not have really focused much on the areas in brown though, since they are on the edge of the map and outside New England, and at quick glance I might have thought those areas were brown because the data simply weren’t plotted. Didn’t that winter have substantially more snowfall than this past one down in those areas though? For you and me, our observation sites aren’t even on the map, but there’s that same issue I mentioned in our discussion about that Northeast regional snowfall map in the NNE thread – you’ve got a fantastic level of gradation up to 100”, with literally shading for every 10” above 20”, but then all the gradations stop and it’s one solid color above 100”. We had over 200” at our site that winter, and even though that’s a bit north of what’s shown, there must still be a lot of gradient in that fuchsia area that would be really interesting to see. With that information you’d get an even better sense for the regional snowfall gradient. If one kept going with the 10” gradations, you’d probably have almost an additional 10 levels up there and that would make for a great visual. You can’t fault Will for not adding that, since he may not have the data to really do it up to his standards, and it’s not an area of focus for the map, but it would definitely be informative. I was going to say that maybe the snowfall nuances up there were out of his region of expertise, but after that recent discussion about microclimates in NNH, it clear that his annual snowfall microclimate knowledge extends well into NNE.

It was actually funny to hear some of the less than stellar comments even mentioned in the presence of 2007-2008 – I didn’t know it was possible to put those two things together. Around here it’s typically just spoken of with reverence, or you get comments like you guys have given. In the past 20 seasons I think most folks would place it only behind 2000-2001. Will’s strong December theme would certainly fit around here though – nearly 70” that December to help push the season to 200”+ for a very solid winter.

I agree, it definitely seems like a quality map – based on comments I’ve seen here it appears that it’s generally matching people’s snowfall quite well. And naturally, my perspective stems from being someone in the solid yellow area where the needle is pegged and you don’t get that additional level of detail. I think it would have been cool if they could even have just added a couple more gradations (maybe even if they covered up to 300” or 350” in 50” gradations. You’d obviously be able to get a little more sense for how things played out along the spine, up there in NNH, and that huge expanse of solid yellow up in northern Maine. In this case they’ve got the lake-effect belts in WNY/NNY on the map as well, so you’d get some detail there. It’s a great map in any case – it’s never going to be easy to effectively cover a region where the snowfall goes from roughly 0” up to 300” in one fell swoop and provide sufficient detail for everyone.

Those broader regional snowfall maps are great, but a downside of where you live now is that you’re typically going to be off scale and get stuffed into the highest gradation. The scale on that map is even nonlinear, but it still stops at 120”, which is probably well below the amount of snow that fell at your site. You can see how NNH is just one solid color, so it’s hard to get a sense for any distribution in those high snowfall areas. Unless you happen to have a numeric entry right near you, maps like that aren’t as helpful as they could be.

I was a bit too busy this week to check in on this thread, but boy that NNE microclimate discussion really exploded. I can certainly imagine Phin’s plow guy being there every day at times during the season, but he must do some sort of friendly service thing where he doesn’t charge $80 for every little visit to sweep away the upslope. I checked my snow data in line with the 2-inch number that Will tossed out there, and here at our site we average 24 days a season with 2 inches of snowfall or more, so that would run about $2,000 if he was strict on that sort of rule. I would check with your neighbors though to see what sort of plans they’re going with, just to make sure that it’s not standard around there to choose some flat rate for the season. I agree that it’s probably good to get a feel for it the first season, then eventually get a system where you can take care of snow maintenance on your own if you want to. Like PF said, we typically just drive over stuff below a certain liquid equivalent and pack it down. We actually have a decent pitch to our driveway, and I find the packed snow is totally fine if the weather stays consistently cold. It’s when there’s a notable thaw or mixed precipitation that it could start to get hairy and you have to pull out the crampons/microspikes/YakTraX/etc. When you do have a pack already down, it gives you some flexibility to let rain or freezing rain or sleet fall on it, then easily clear it away with the snow and preserve the texture of what’s underneath. If your climate is like what PF and I have over here, and what Alex probably sees as well, you can be looking at 100+ days of flakes in the air. It’s where the “snow globe” terminology comes from. Over here when tourists are confused because the forecast says “snow showers” and they end up with inches on their cars each morning, locals have given up trying to explain the nuances of upslope and microclimates and they just hand them one of these: Ultimately though, it is really nice to have some flexibility with the driveway clearing in this kind of winter climate. I’m lucky in that our driveway is only ~100’ long, so I can take care of it with the snow blower at my leisure. If it’s a powder morning and we want to zip off to the slopes for fresh tracks, I can just blow out a car’s width in a few minutes and we’re on our way. I think most plow guys get at it pretty quickly/early, but depending on how many customers they have and where you sit on their route, I guess it’s possible it could be slower after a big storm. It should be a fun experience though learning what works for your property and climate; at least you’ve gone into it partly for that snow experience so it should be a good time vs. someone who moved to a spot like that and had no clue about the climate. I’m sure you’ve seen the various versions of this classic tale: https://www.sunnyskyz.com/blog/2606/The-Diary-Of-A-Snow-Shoveler

Ha, nice perspective. The radiational cooling can probably help with snowpack retention a bit, but it seems to be CAD that is more important in that regard. In any case, precipitation is what you want to maximize when it comes to snowfall. It looks like the Randolph NH-CS-10 CoCoRaHS site near you has averaged 55.70” of total annual liquid over the past decade, suggesting their average is pretty similar to what we get here at our site, or even a bit more with the extra elevation. One figures your site will be right in that range as well, so you’ll have plenty of precip to work with. I’m not sure what Alex’s site gets for annual precipitation, but it’s probably similar? I think there’s a direction in which that site gets some downsloping? But, if that’s the case, it may be compensated by the gains from upslope.

I don’t have data for 2004-2005 because we weren’t yet in this location, but it sounds like 2007-2008 was a bit different here – January was well below average with just 27.6” of snow, and November was actually above average. For the ONDJFMAM stretch, there were some great above normal months in there with November at almost 20”, December at almost 70”, February at 55”, and March near 35”. January was surprisingly the odd man out of that great stretch. The early and late parts of the season were below average as well (October, April, and May), but relative to January those months typically bring much less snow. You guys are always coming with crazy ways to look at snow data that I would never have thought about – seasons with the most above average months; I have never looked at that, LOL. I was able to check quickly with an IF/THEN/SUM formula in my snowfall spreadsheet and the best I’ve found for ONDJFMAM is 5 above average months for the seasons of 2009-2010 (DJFAM), 2010-2011 (ODJFM), and 2016-2017 (ONFMA). Interestingly, 2009-2010 was a below average season overall (brought to 5 months by above average April and May snowfall), but the other two were both strong seasons with total snowfall of 185”+.

Ahh, got it. We’re the same as your wife though; 60 F is a good break point for us on the inside temperature, and if the house can’t maintain that ambiently then it’s time to get the heat going. I’m fine with 50s F if I’m sleeping, or working out, or not at home, but trying to sit and work at a desk for hours (or do most things in the house) in those temperatures really isn’t practical Our setback for nights is 55 F, but it never gets down to that upstairs before the heat will have kicked on via the downstairs thermostat. It’s fun to play a bit with initially turning on the heat in the fall, but we really don’t wait long – it’s not worth sitting in 50 F temperatures for an extra week in October to save what would probably amount to 10 or 20 bucks.

I’ve actually been meaning to ask PF about that when I see some of the comments about the heat coming on. I always thought it was most practical to turn it off for the summer, then you don’t have to worry about it turning on inadvertently during cool nights or these shoulder seasons when temperatures are marginal and it’s not really needed. It just seems like unnecessary wear and tear and energy use for a couple of degrees here and there, but maybe some setups have to be kept on? I know some systems are full climate control for heating/cooling, but even for a system like that I’d still have it off and regulate by windows whenever possible (which up here is essentially everything except cold season).

I saw Phin’s post about the northern stream and clipper parade in the other thread, and I brought in a related post I’d made in another thread as well. Although a clipper parade alone is not going to build a classic deep NNE snowpack, that sort of pattern can be really nice up here to keep things rolling. It’s great for keeping the slopes fresh, and, those systems can be a huge help in getting the ski surfaces back to normal if they harden up because of a warm storm that cuts to the west of us. Sometimes you just get those storms that pass west of us and bring mostly rain or mixed precipitation, and although we’ll almost always get at least a little snow on the back side, those clippers can mean the difference between the surface being something much better than just “dust on crust”. The parade is certainly something to root for in this area though – they joke in the forum about how all that has to happen is for a moose to fart around here and it will snow, and that’s because the mountains will typically make the most of any little impulse that comes through. Ideally it’s nice to have some larger synoptic systems sprinkled into the pattern, but from what I’ve seen, the northern stream can be quite productive up here.

Actually if you’re interested in NNE microclimates, especially pertaining to winter, I can’t think of a thread on any forum that would be better than this one. It’s great to have another NNE member; we’ve definitely got some of the most interesting winter microclimates around, and there are only so many of us documenting them, so the more observations and discussion related to them, the better.

You should easily get to see snow in October at your location. Last season was the first in my 14 years of records here that we didn’t get at least a trace of snow/frozen, and it just missed by a few days because we got it on Nov 3rd. So that October occurrence is ~93%. Accumulating snow occurrence here in October currently stands at ~64%, but with an extra 1,000’ of elevation, your site should probably be even higher than that.

If it’s like here, it would be the past four years with a white Thanksgiving. In 2015-2016 I see there was some snow on the ground the day before, but nothing on Thanksgiving day itself, so it looks like it just missed. Of these past four, I see that 2017-2018 was the closest to missing – we picked up 6.1” on Nov 20th that year from a Lake Superior/Lake Huron coupled lake-effect band assisted by a weak embedded shortwave along the international border. Some of that snow was still around on Thanksgiving on the 23rd, and it actually persisted all the way out to the 25th before it was reinforced by additional storms at the end of the month. Anyway, this recent four-year stretch of white Thanksgivings is the longest I see in my records, so it’s been a good run on that front.