wxman
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Everything posted by wxman
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I was looking at that on radarscope, not sure why you're not snowing been snowing here for a while.
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Solid inch down with steady light to almost moderate snow. Temp 22.
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Snow really picking up, bordering on moderate, happened quick.
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Steady light snow now. Driveway covered and lawn getting there. Temp 24.
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First tiny flakes now falling. Let the games begin, and good luck to all!
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To state the obvious (but why not) this has the potential to be one for the ages around here in central and northern NJ. Impossible to say until all is said and done but looking at the consensus of the models, which keep getting better (for most), this could be a GOAT.
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It seems the big ones always start earlier than expected...the busts are always delayed.
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It's a pretty wide spread of solutions relatively close in to game time. Does Doylestown get 30" or 7"? This is the kind of spread that one expects last Thursday at 12Z.
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Very volatile and unstable situation. Places in eastern Pa that got 2 feet plus on the RGEM get 7" on the NAM.
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Why is it that even if all the models were showing a direct hit we would not be the least bit surprised of a shift a few hundred miles to screw us? YES, I get what the models are showing and a miss makes perfect sense at this time, but the models aren't close to perfect at this range and enough of a shift could still happen that gets us into the good snows. Could also miss further south or develop too late, but this will hold my interest until at least the 00z runs tomorrow.
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January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread
wxman replied to Stormlover74's topic in New York City Metro
Well, if you take the GFS as depicted at hr 126 and move the features NW by 100 miles then much of central NJ would be into significant snow. What's "much more"? If we move those features NW by 200 miles we'd be looking at P-type issues. Anyway, I would feel no more confident in a snowstorm next Friday even if the GFS showed exactly the right setup at this range. -
January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread
wxman replied to Stormlover74's topic in New York City Metro
No, but the modeling could EASILY adjusted the latitude of the key players 100 miles or more in that timeframe, and that's all it would take and then some. By 2pm the euro could show a nice hit and the GFS nothing a few hours later. There is a nice storm signal and that's really all that's important at this point. -
January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread
wxman replied to Stormlover74's topic in New York City Metro
"caved"? This is out over 120 hrs. -
Obs and nowcast Sun 9A Jan 3 - 6A Mon Jan 4 2021
wxman replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
snowing here at 33 ground is white. -
December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
wxman replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Hard to measure and compacted down but total OTG is 5.5" with steady light snow still falling. 24 degrees.- 1,011 replies
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Between 3-1/2 and 4-1/2". Hard to measure with the blowing. temp steady at 23.
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It's snowing like a beast. I see it and radar confirms it. Just blasted over 2". Maybe you live in a microclimate.
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
wxman replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Pouring snow as of now, 1.5" down. temp 23- 1,011 replies
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Enjoy, I like reading your posts in your sub forum.
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
wxman replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
1" down. 23 degrees.- 1,011 replies
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
wxman replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Moderate snow, everything but roads (treated) now covered. Temp 26/DP 21- 1,011 replies
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Love, you Walt, and your a pros pro, of course.....but "To me one bad sign... too much sun 6-8 hrs before an event starts. The classics have a long slow process of thickening and lowering cigs." I mean, really? That sounds like something I might say, LOL. In any event, clouds are lowering and thickening here. Best of luck to all!
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Yup. 13-16+ all of NJ from Raritan bay north.
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