IWXwx

Same out here. We may even see some lake effect down this way. After my niece complained on Facebook about the cold temps predicted for Halloween, I suggested that she dress the kiddos up as Ralphie's brother in A Christmas Story, so at least they will be warm.

It appears that you are acclimated to living in the south. Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that the southern expression for dumbass?

We've flip flopped. 0.23" in the past 36 days here.

Never gets old

wow

Not the Great lakes, but a tree at my friends' convenience store here in Huntington had an infestation.

Yeah, the Tigers/Cubs are in a rain delay. It looks like the NE suburbs are getting a second round of lighter rain, but may miss downtown.

Never gets old. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 93. Monday Sunny, with a high near 95. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 91.

IWX trolling warministas. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 89. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 63. Monday Sunny, with a high near 89. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 89.

This has been a copy and paste summer in these parts. Today's IND discussion is the latest to paste this: "An amplified trough/ridge pattern will support northwesterly flow aloft throughout the majority of the forecast period. Northwesterly flow may lead to "ridge-riding" mesoscale convective systems. Models struggle to pick up on the timing and intensity of MCS features, especially where mesoscale factors largely determine convective location and intensity. As such, pin pointing exact timing of any significant round of convection will be a bit tricky."

We had 2.36" of much needed rain overnight. It looks like multiple chances to add on to that this week. We may finally break this abnormally dry weather for awhile.

I didn't realize that about beetles and drought, but I've noticed a sharp decline in the numbers in my garden this year, so it makes sense.

I'm not being a smartass, so bear with me. Join CoCoRaHS and report your daily precip. I've done it since 2006, missing only four or five days. The more reports an area gets, the better the mesoscale/microscale accuracy is in a given location for the Drought Monitor. Here is an example of precip reports for June for Indiana with and without CoCoRaHS reports. I understand that it takes more than you reporting to make a significant difference, but every little bit helps. If all of the weenies here that closely monitor the weather would report, it would make a significant difference.

I heard two claps of thunder as it rolled through here. EDIT: Oh...and picked up a whopping 0.03"

For all of the Indiana posters who are watching the severe threat being pushed father north into Michigan with each model run, IND is throwing out a bone by tossing the CAM guidance. It will be interesting to see what SPC says in their Day 1 update. Potential for severe weather is increasing for Central Indiana for this evening and into tonight. Aloft, a shortwave trough, already evident on satellite imagery in Minnesota, dives southeastward into the lower Great Lakes region by tonight. At the surface, a quasistationary NW-SE oriented boundary extends from Southern Minnesota to Southern Indiana. RAP mesoanalysis data shows a sharp Theta-E and SBCAPE gradient along this boundary as well as a PWAT and low level moisture max along and southwest of this line. A southwesterly 20-35 kt low level jet is currently flowing perpendicular to this boundary, increasing lift right along it, and also increasing low level shear to values conducive for organized convective development. The presence of this sharp boundary and a related instability gradient, along with mean 850-300mb winds out of the NW, suggests southeastward storm propagation along this boundary and into the region. Moist air advection into Central Indiana today will be aided by both the persistent low level jet today and the rainfall from earlier this morning, likely keeping dew points and low level moisture values above what CAMs guidance has been showing for this afternoon and evening. Latest satellite imagery this morning also shows high clouds associated with thunderstorm blow off across much of Southern Illinois and Indiana. These clouds may further enhance the instability boundary during the day by setting up a differential heating boundary between the clearer skies further north and cloudier skies further south. With all this being said, confidence is increasing in deviating from short term guidance, which shows the current MCV in Minnesota pushing towards Northern Indiana and Southern Michigan today. Additional convective development expected along said MCV. Our current thinking is that this complex will follow the axis of higher dew points/moisture and ride along the instability/theta-E gradient with the mean 850-300mb flow southeastward toward Central Indiana. Potential is there for additional convective development along and south of the path of the MCV along the aforementioned boundary within Central Indiana. While this does deviate from what CAMs guidance is showing, CAMs did not pick up well on the early morning convection which will influence the evolution of storms later this afternoon. CAMs are also notorious for over-mixing the PBL and drying out the lower levels too much within this type of atmospheric set-up. We will have to keep a close eye on the track of the MCV to the north through the day, as its track will be pivotal in determining where the best severe threat is this afternoon through tonight.

He completely understands how probabilities work. He is just playing to his sheep. It is unfortunate that this misdirection is so rampant in the public realm today. Leaders used to work for the betterment of the whole, but no longer.

IWX is hedging their bets on the late week heat. Our point 89's us Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. lol

Golf balls are all that have been reported so far, but wouldn't doubt that there are some bigger stones EDIT: Just had a report of hen egg size (2") in Mishawaka

Dropping golf balls east of South Bend and through Mishawaka

It's not often that you see an MD for almost the whole mitt and the whole mitt only. EDIT: Jinx to @Powerball. You just beat me to it

TOL, DTW, and FWA area posters might consider making plans to keep their vehicles safely under cover later today (unless you already need some body work.)

Just the opposite up here. I'm wishing for some of that storm action, as they keep dodging Huntington. Yesterday, we had one go north, one go south, and one that was zeroing in on town and just disintegrated, leaving us with a DAB. Today, storms formed along the cool front just to our southwest, which is part of the line you are experiencing.

"Humidity 4%" wow lol