TWCCraig

3.6 for the low here The maps from the Euro a few days ago showing well below 0 here didn't verify, but we ended up colder than models like the GFS/CMC. A blend of these models had the best forecast. I recently pointed out how the Euro was too cold, particularly over the ocean. Case in point, this morning 6z Euro initialized with -15 for Provincetown on Cape Cod. However, the coldest it got there was around -4. It's interesting that this model has some sort issue when extremely cold air masses move over water. It doesn't make sense for it to be -15 in Provincetown, but only -10 in Boston.

Euro is still way too cold. Pretty amazing that 24 hours out it'll have a forecast for -17 in Provincetown, on Cape Cod, surrounded by water. In fact, the Euro has the entire Gulf of Maine below 0 all the way to the 40/70. It's not going to get that cold over 40+ degree ocean.

We need the 31st to stay above freezing the entire day which may be tough. Otherwise it would be a tie

Pretty cool sky for a winter day. Sunshine and dark ominous clouds to the north

26 coldest temp so far this January. Absolutely unreal. Reminds me a bit of December 2015, even though that was warmer compared to normal.

Finally getting some snow here

Still no freezes yet in NYC this January. This could make a run for top 3. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature <= 32 Missing Count 1 2023 0 19 2 1932 4 0 3 2006 10 0 - 1990 10 0 5 2020 11 0 - 2002 11 0 - 1933 11 0 8 2017 12 0 - 1950 12 1 10 2012 13 0 - 1998 13 0 12 1880 14 0 13 1937 15 0 - 1906 15 0 15 2021 16 0

This has been trending west for some time now

NYC will definitely make a run for the fewest amount of minimum temperatures below 32 in January. Might not see a freeze until the end of the month. Insane to think about, what is usually the coldest month of the year that we can't even get a single freeze

NYC tied the record at 66 with the latest hourly observation. 000SXUS71 KOKX 041746RERNYCRECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY1246 PM EST WED JAN 4 2023...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT CENTRAL PARK NY...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 66 WAS TIED AT CENTRAL PARK NY TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 66 SET IN 1950.THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF THE TEMPERATURE CONTINUES TO RISE.ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI).$$

RGEM and GEM-LAM nailed today's temperatures. They were the only models showing 60+ temps for LI, until the HRRR did as well. They were the only models showing the possibility of 70+ degrees in NJ

ISP already broke their record at 65 64 here and starting to fall slowly. Sea breeze might be kicking in now

Temperatures could end up higher if there's less clouds tomorrow. HRRR would tie the record at NYC at 66 (1950). RGEM has 68 in the city. Newark and places S&W of the city could see 70s. NWS has 58 for me, I think we reach 60 here at least

RGEM and the higher resolution HRDPS both have 70's for Wednesday

No CAA. Strong winds like we had with the past cold snap help to even the surface temps out more. With strong winds, temps are more uniform. On days like today with no CAA, rural and suburban sites see radiational cooling, which doesn't happen in the city because of UHI. With an incoming warm air mass, the warm air is basically "overrunning" the cold air since warm air is less dense, meaning you have warming aloft but a lot of low level cold air still in place which can take longer to mix out. This time of year we can get some crazy inversions with warm air aloft and colder temps at the surface. Not the correct thread, but some places will see 60 today!

With how close some observation sites came to reaching 50 degrees today, I think it's pretty likely that tomorrow will reach and/or exceed 50 degrees.

2017 Though that was more/less a below average month in general with a few warmups here and there. Last week of Dec was very cold, over a week of sub-freezing highs

A sad day for what is a great website for GOES satellite data. Doesn't affect our area but it was cool being able to see the entire western hemisphere (both north & south). Bandwidth issues... any other great satellite websites out there?

Flakes flying in West Islip

28.8 or 29 if you round, was the low here before clouds moved in

34 already, should freeze easily tonight. Will be the first freeze of the season

The only places on Long Island that have dropped below freezing so far, thus ending the growing season, are the pine barrens out east. Freeze warnings/watches, in my opinion, should be issued until we actually drop below 32. Not sure about Upton's reasoning since ISP and much of the island hasn't had a freeze yet. They have the city in a freeze watch, but it will likely stay above freezing in the city. With enough radiational cooling and calm winds, most of the island could see a freeze Monday night/Tuesday morning. Personally, I would have the whole island under a freeze watch, and exclude the city.

Another 70+ day in November. Crazy Winds are stronger now than they were last night

NYC has yet to drop below 40 degrees so far this season. We will likely drop below 40 degrees on Monday (11/14), making this the second latest sub-40 degree reading on record Season First Value Missing Last Value Missing Difference 1938-1939 11-15 (1938) 37 0 04-18 (1939) 39 0 153 1946-1947 11-13 (1946) 38 0 05-10 (1947) 36 0 177 1977-1978 11-12 (1977) 37 0 05-01 (1978) 38 0 169 1916-1917 11-12 (1916) 38 0 05-04 (1917) 38 0 172 1994-1995 11-11 (1994) 38 0 04-10 (1995) 34 0 149 1898-1899 11-11 (1898) 38 0 04-17 (1899) 39 0 156 1961-1962 11-09 (1961) 35 0 04-17 (1962) 34 0 158 1943-1944 11-09 (1943) 38 0 04-15 (1944) 37 0 157 2019-2020 11-08 (2019) 29 0 05-10 (2020) 39 0 183 2017-2018 11-08 (2017) 39 0 04-21 (2018) 39 0 163 1955-1956 11-08 (1955) 38 0 05-17 (1956) 39 0 190 1971-1972 11-07 (1971) 34 0 04-26 (1972) 38 0 170

Dewpoints are in the 20's in the city with temps in the low 70's. Crazy from the 60 degree dewpoints we just had