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TWCCraig

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Everything posted by TWCCraig

  1. TWCCraig
    HRDPS has 95 for BDL (Windsor Locks), Connecticut tomorrow. BDL is sitting at 92 right now so mid 90's for tomorrow would be a good bet there. Crazy to be talking temps near 100 degrees in New England in April
  2. TWCCraig
    Solid 80 degrees here still with good breeze off the water
  3. TWCCraig
    82 and sunny 67 degrees just a couple miles to my SE. Happy to not be in the sea breeze today!
  4. TWCCraig
    72 and cloudy
  5. TWCCraig
    NYC is currently tied with 2012 for the warmest January 1st-March 30th period on record. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Mar 30 Missing Count 1 2023-03-30 43.1 1 - 2012-03-30 43.1 0 3 2020-03-30 42.4 0 4 1990-03-30 42.1 0 5 1998-03-30 41.7 0 6 2002-03-30 41.4 0 7 2016-03-30 40.2 0 8 1949-03-30 40.0 0 9 2006-03-30 39.8 0 - 1991-03-30 39.8 0 11 1953-03-30 39.7 0
  6. TWCCraig
    Down to 32. Moderate snow, coating on most surfaces, streets wet
  7. TWCCraig
    Need your snow fix? Here's a live feed from Maine with lots of deer. If only it was here!
  8. TWCCraig
    Pretty sure it's ice pellets. Under decent radar returns right now but my visibility is pretty high. I was under heavy snow before
  9. TWCCraig
    1.5" OTG Snow/sleet mix
  10. TWCCraig
    Most roads covered except avenues and highways. Even those have some snow. Dumping
  11. TWCCraig
    Heavy snow and breezy
  12. TWCCraig
    Solid coating down Moderate snow
  13. TWCCraig
    Mostly snow now!
  14. TWCCraig
    Just drove down the Sagtikos, middle of island is mostly snow. Once I got to the south shore it was mostly sleet
  15. TWCCraig
    No leafout but silver maples are budding and daffodils are sprouting
  16. TWCCraig
    The difference is probably resulting from using different climate averages. Tropical tidbits looks to be using CFSR 1981-2010, Weatherbell is using ECMWF ERA-5 1991-2020. Weathermodels.com appears to be using some 20-year average. The differences could also be resulting from whether it's a instantaneous snapshot of temperature anomalies, or the average of the anomalies over the past 6 to 12 hours
  17. TWCCraig
    High of 69 and dropping now with increasing clouds and a sea breeze, so I've never got into the 70's but glad to see ISP's record fall. HRRR, RGEM, HRDPS did great with temps today
  18. TWCCraig
    ISP at 69 Officially breaks the all-time warmest February temp on record. Original record was 68 set last year
  19. TWCCraig
    Most sites on Long Island are 60+ already except Montauk. Already exceeding the lower-end model forecasts for today. RGEM, HRDPS, HRRR had the right idea. HRRR has 71 later for ISP. Would be the all-time record. We'll see, we have clouds and the sea breeze which could easily prevent that
  20. TWCCraig
    HRRR has 70's tomorrow before some late afternoon rain moves in
  21. TWCCraig
  22. TWCCraig
    If NYC doesn't get 8 more freezes by the end of the month, this winter (Dec-Feb) will have the fewest number of minimum temperatures below 32 degrees on record. NYC has 24 so far December through February Rank Season Number of Days Min Temperature <= 32 Missing Count 1 2022-2023 24 18 2 1997-1998 32 0 3 2011-2012 33 0 4 2016-2017 35 0 - 2001-2002 35 0 6 2015-2016 36 0 7 2019-2020 38 0 - 1931-1932 38 0 9 1998-1999 41 0 10 1982-1983 42 0 If we count the whole season from fall to spring, 2012 looks tough to beat but top 5 is very possible October 1st through May 10th Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature <= 32 Oct 1 to May 10 Missing Count 1 2023-05-10 27 89 2 2012-05-10 37 0 3 2002-05-10 47 0 4 2020-05-10 48 0 - 2016-05-10 48 0 6 2017-05-10 49 0 - 1998-05-10 49 0 8 1999-05-10 52 0 9 1983-05-10 53 0 10 1991-05-10 54 0
  23. TWCCraig
    60 and sunny Awesome day
  24. TWCCraig
    It wasn't the radiational cooling this time, it was cold air advection. The core of the cold was to our north & east, so places north & east saw colder temps than those further west.
  25. TWCCraig
    3.6 for the low here The maps from the Euro a few days ago showing well below 0 here didn't verify, but we ended up colder than models like the GFS/CMC. A blend of these models had the best forecast. I recently pointed out how the Euro was too cold, particularly over the ocean. Case in point, this morning 6z Euro initialized with -15 for Provincetown on Cape Cod. However, the coldest it got there was around -4. It's interesting that this model has some sort issue when extremely cold air masses move over water. It doesn't make sense for it to be -15 in Provincetown, but only -10 in Boston.
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