mitchnick

Euro site. I'll post yesterday's on top and today's on the bottom for weeks 2, 3, 4 and 6. Week 5 was similar.

Wow. Weeklies just cooled BIG time.

AI has threats again but the cold actually has 2 of the threats pushed a little east of ideal. Probably good at this range.

Eps snow mean pretty good at 268hrs with 3" at BWI and 2.5" at DCA. Better than the operational.

I'm glad to see you posting Heisy. When I heard them say that jet crashed in NE Philly, I was worried about you.

Gfs seems to have the boundary 75-100 miles further south from the Gem.

Ggem is snow to mix for 2/10-2/11. Better north.

2/10-2/20 could be one of the snowiest periods in 15 years IF we're on the right side of the boundary.

Ughh cold push to strong. Changes every run.

Incoming on gfs at 240hrs

I'll take the 12z Gfs for 2/5

Add the Icon to the Gfs.

If you're wondering why so wet in February, this link is the 200mb jet starting at 0 hours on the Eps. Scroll through to the end of the run. It's a firehouse across the country. Gefs is the same. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=namer&pkg=uv250&runtime=2025020100&fh=0

You mean over on the rain totals and under on the snow totals.

6z AI continues with multiple threats of snow or snow to mix. It keeps shifting around but suffice to say the 10th-17th has the most snow threats, consistentwith the ensemblesand operationals. I'll let you figure out details from TT once it's out in around an hour.

You want to use the (bc) version, or bias corrected of both. That said, the reason the Gefs are warmer than the Eps is, in most likelihood, their MJO forecasts. And you're right, let's hope the Eps is closer. Bias corrected are included at this link. http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html

Good stuff starts on the 11th on the AI.

It always takes multiple things to go wrong and it looks like the copter was primary cause and the tower's question as to whether he saw the jet coming in without identifying the location of the jet (i.e. at your 11 o'clock) is a secondary. But that assumes no mechanical failures. However I agree, just seems so obvious in retrospect it shouldn't have happened.

0z AI another great run. Check it out on TT. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025020100&fh=6

It IS the best long range run of the season. You're going to be one busy sob in February! Lol People that don't like maps aren't going to be happy. Anyway, I came in to post the PA Eps map and I should have known you'd ninja me. I posted it anyway because it's so pretty.

500mb map looks decent for all 3 AI events. Here's a link to the 500mb anomalies starting from just befor storm 1. Move forward to see the rest of the 5H anomalies. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025013118&fh=258

Total storm qpf from Pivotal.

Pivotal has the precip shield further for the 2nd one a little further offshore than as it appeared to me on the Euro site. But storm 3 is definitely better on Pivotal than it looked on the Euro site.

Actually, the last storm might be better than the other two if that's possible. It starts real cold. Here's the 850 temp/500mb

AI 18z has a little frozen on the 5/6 next week. No big deal. Now. Take your children out of the room. Once you take out, you can continue to read this. Click on this link and move forward in time. From DC northward, the storm is mostly snow. This is 2/11 BUT...continue to move forward in time to Thursday 2/13. That storm is all snow from even southern VA. It's more an I95 storm, but it's an absolute MONSTER! Have a nice rest of your evening. Disregard the 3rd one at the end of the run even though that would at least start as snow too. Lol https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501311800&interval=12&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502111200