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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Since when did you surrender your weenie membership?
  2. mitchnick
    But 850's are all above 0 before and during the storm.
  3. mitchnick
    Differences between AI and EPS is pretty stark. In fact, differences between 0z Gem and AI were substantial too despite a similar result, which probably a red flag.
  4. mitchnick
    Still in the game, but would love to see the AI lock in for a hit. Otoh, it wasn’t until around 120hrs out before it locked in for last week.
  5. mitchnick
    And that’s based on 91/20 climo too.
  6. mitchnick
    6z AI further north. Hits NYC north.
  7. mitchnick
    Meh...fun over 6z AI further north and hits north of NYC.
  8. mitchnick
    I checked out total QPF on TT, and it had the .5"/.75" line just to my south and I figured ratios would not be as great as last week. Obviously, it’s early and it could easily change, but this is the time frame when things usually start to hone in on the right answer. And the fact that the same 2 models that did well last week support it makes it a little more credible despite other modeling not yet on board.
  9. mitchnick
    THV bottomed at -2
  10. mitchnick
    I didn't want to say it in the MA forum in light of what happened to most areas down there for fear of my life. It's got the late cold influx too just like last week.
  11. mitchnick
    I was on ne.weather too. Had over 14" at BWI
  12. mitchnick
    I was thinking the same thing, but was an experienced enough of a not to post it!
  13. mitchnick
    Subsurface warming building in the west and spreading east while the subsurface cold has peaked.
  14. mitchnick
    Forcing disappears after this easterly burst with most modeling heading for the COD. Here's the Eps. https://charts.ecmwf.int/permalinks/time-longitudes-sections-extended-range-forecast-72885
  15. mitchnick
    Last night's end of Eps got colder. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=T850a&runtime=2025012500&fh=360
  16. mitchnick
    Ninja'd lol
  17. mitchnick
    Sorry for the disjointed posts on the AI. I just started looking at this, so I don't have all aspects of it down. Lol One last post. Perfect vort pass for us. Move it forward frombthis spot. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=eus&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025012500&fh=168
  18. mitchnick
    Cold air actually feeds in as the storm progresses if you move it forward. P.s. Similar track to last week's storm when you think about it.
  19. mitchnick
    And looky what the AI is now doing, but temps are warmish but give it tome to trend. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025012500&fh=168
  20. mitchnick
    Geps is colder than Eps at the end of its 12z run. It was not too many days sgo it was ending AN and the warmest of the 3 ensembles.
  21. mitchnick
    They play it indoors a lot to avoid it, but that's a good question.
  22. mitchnick
    Today’s weeklies. They are run off the 0z EPS from the night before. Sort of a major change between last night's 0z EPS and today's 12z. If 0z tonight follows today's 12z, I'm bettin' tomorrow's weeklies will be better. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202501240000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502030000
  23. mitchnick
    Just tired of seeing them win like I was tired of seeing the Giants and Patriots win in past years.
  24. mitchnick
    Anybody but Kansas City, and I'm not even a real football fan.
  25. mitchnick
    End of Eps looks nice. Like the AI, SER basically history with BN temps.
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