mitchnick

I'll take the 12z Gfs for 2/5

Add the Icon to the Gfs.

If you're wondering why so wet in February, this link is the 200mb jet starting at 0 hours on the Eps. Scroll through to the end of the run. It's a firehouse across the country. Gefs is the same. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=namer&pkg=uv250&runtime=2025020100&fh=0

You mean over on the rain totals and under on the snow totals.

6z AI continues with multiple threats of snow or snow to mix. It keeps shifting around but suffice to say the 10th-17th has the most snow threats, consistentwith the ensemblesand operationals. I'll let you figure out details from TT once it's out in around an hour.

You want to use the (bc) version, or bias corrected of both. That said, the reason the Gefs are warmer than the Eps is, in most likelihood, their MJO forecasts. And you're right, let's hope the Eps is closer. Bias corrected are included at this link. http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html

Good stuff starts on the 11th on the AI.

It always takes multiple things to go wrong and it looks like the copter was primary cause and the tower's question as to whether he saw the jet coming in without identifying the location of the jet (i.e. at your 11 o'clock) is a secondary. But that assumes no mechanical failures. However I agree, just seems so obvious in retrospect it shouldn't have happened.

0z AI another great run. Check it out on TT. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025020100&fh=6

It IS the best long range run of the season. You're going to be one busy sob in February! Lol People that don't like maps aren't going to be happy. Anyway, I came in to post the PA Eps map and I should have known you'd ninja me. I posted it anyway because it's so pretty.

500mb map looks decent for all 3 AI events. Here's a link to the 500mb anomalies starting from just befor storm 1. Move forward to see the rest of the 5H anomalies. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025013118&fh=258

Total storm qpf from Pivotal.

Pivotal has the precip shield further for the 2nd one a little further offshore than as it appeared to me on the Euro site. But storm 3 is definitely better on Pivotal than it looked on the Euro site.

Actually, the last storm might be better than the other two if that's possible. It starts real cold. Here's the 850 temp/500mb

AI 18z has a little frozen on the 5/6 next week. No big deal. Now. Take your children out of the room. Once you take out, you can continue to read this. Click on this link and move forward in time. From DC northward, the storm is mostly snow. This is 2/11 BUT...continue to move forward in time to Thursday 2/13. That storm is all snow from even southern VA. It's more an I95 storm, but it's an absolute MONSTER! Have a nice rest of your evening. Disregard the 3rd one at the end of the run even though that would at least start as snow too. Lol https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501311800&interval=12&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502111200

At least 3 days, maybe 4 or 5.

That's what the AI has been showing.

The SER is a beast. It seems operationals and ensembles want to push the boundary south to around VA/NC border after the 10th and then throw precip north. If the SER fights back hard, it'll be a brief snow to mix to rain for most up the coast, more snow the further north, of course. But if it doesn't fight so hard, we'll get a decent snow as advertised by the Euro and Gfs intermittently over the past 2 days. Eps is still looking good after day 10 suggesting some decent members, but it's too far out to get too excited. The AI seems to do best inside 5 days. Wednesday is now 5 days away so we should start to see it hone in and then stay pretty steady come Sunday, one way or the other. Until then, it's another ensemble member. But I could easily be wrong.

Geps fwiw

Yeah, 6z warmed for the 6th. Didn't bother to post it because it pi$$ed me off. Lol In fact, the whole run sorta sucked.

Why end it in February? March can be pretty good in Niñas.

We should be in phase 7 sometime in February, but it's interesting that phase 7 in March per this site looks a lot like what ensembles are advertising in mid February.

They've been doing that since their days in the ACC back in the 70's and 80's. Dean always seemed to outsmart Lefty.

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1885138563982917803

I haven't been following the SSW threat, but I did see that the Euro is indicating a strong heat flux by day 10. Honestly, I'm sure if it means much toward a SSW, but thought it interesting after reading your post. Here's the link to the Euro strat stuff. They used to provide free all info at the link but not anymore unfortunately. https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html