mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Not that Nam will be right, but at typical 3:1 sleet ratios, that's about 2-2.5" imby. At least some of that should last until Tuesday, so any snow that falls will accumulate immediately.
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Except for a little snow, Nam says all this qpf falls as sleet imby.
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Been a while since I experienced a big old sleet storm. But most modeling says that's what's coming here.
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Most modeling is getting the Mjo wave into the right phases faster than just a day or 2 ago.
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12z Gefs looks to end on a familiar pattern to this year, if not better.
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Could be worse. Euro had most of ENE getting from 40"-50"+ on Tuesday or Wednesday over 1 run, and now they'll be "lucky" to see 20". Double lol
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Once any weenie sees double digits, anything less will not do! Are you with me people...ARE YOU WITH ME!!!!!? lol
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They as in modeling. Ukie is certainly best case, but the other medium range models are not showing double digits and the Euro is now under 6" for even us "southerners" for Tuesday. Thursday is looking warmish down here but better north.
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Depends on one's definition of rock and roll.
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Our big snow has apparently slipped away. If they don't stop cutting back on Tuesday's qpf, we're all fooked.
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AI has a threat next Saturday into Sunday with a lt/mod snow, highest north, before change/mix and then maybe back to snow? Technically, that's it on this run in addition to next week. It's a bit stingy on the cold but does have a storm in the midwest moving east after the end of the run on track for snow. Both will keep changing, but it's something to track before the heat and humidity return!
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AI cut back again some on qpf. Maybe .1"? That's a guess. Storm 2 probably starts as some snow then changes over. Should stay pretty cold on the surface as it's a brief warmup. Other threats on Long Range thread.
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Storm 2 on Ukie adds to totals.
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Ukie
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For DC, all the qpf here is a little snow and 90%+ sleet.
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Not in love with it either, but snow on Tuesday will accumulate on it immediately.
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12z Nam is cold as heck and heavy on the sleet.
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6z AI has a threat for Saturday 2/15 but it's not clean and has some precip issues. It has a lot of qpf. That weekend has been a period of interest for a few days. Suffice to say it will change a lot between now and then. Nothing additional of great interest on this run.
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6z AI brought south a bit the Tuesday precip similar to 18z yesterday. BUT, late Wednesday night into Thursday is mostly snow along (maybe a touch N&W) of the fall line. For places north and west that stay all snow bith events are probably low double digits. Haven't looked at the rest of run. Will post any additional threats in the Long Range thread.
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That is total, so it includes some on Saturday. This is the 11th/12th. Sorry But it's an improvement from 0z below.
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Eps mean 11th/12th
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2nd storm may not be great on the 6z, but this is a pretty sweet ending.
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AI also has rain to moderate snow next Saturday into Sunday.
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0z AI now keeps a lot of people snow for the follow up on Thursday.
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So you want to be in the bullseye on the Gfs 100+ hours out when no other modeling has you bullseyed?
