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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    I agree. But most modeling was going in a different direction and some were questioning whether this Niño was coupling.
  2. mitchnick
    It all waxes and wanes. Nothing new in the earth's history will come of it. But I can see how using RONI could "upset" some who think (or make a living from) the end of the world is coming.
  3. mitchnick
    So anything that dares to minimize CC can't be better. Typical coming from the paid CC spokesman, Ben Knoll.
  4. mitchnick
    They were pretty good last winter with maintaining the cold. I haven't followed them since March.
  5. mitchnick
    Euro weeklies say "not so fast." https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202610020000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202610120000
  6. mitchnick
    Euro weeklies say "what a way to run an historic warm Niño. " @GaWx https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202610020000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202610120000
  7. mitchnick
    Don't know if anyone noticed, but many of the MR models are showing a big hit of BN over the Conus east of the Mississippi at the end of their runs for the past few days. 18z EuroAi and Gfs are pretty impressive with 12z support on the Gefs and Geps. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026100218&fh=360 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026100218&fh=384 Edit: Euro weeklies are on board too as the first 3 weeks (surprisingly) are BN in much of the east. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202610020000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202610120000
  8. mitchnick
    But cool air is on the way and not far away for that matter. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/hazards?obs=true&wfo=ctp&hazard=true&hazard_type=all&hazard_opacity=80&tab=legend
  9. mitchnick
    The October "mother of all WWB" has been on the Cfs2 for close to 2 months. Hard to believe with that model, but true nonetheless.
  10. mitchnick
    On the + side, it likely means it's a stronger push of colder air. I'll take that as a "not so negative" considering temp will likely be our biggest problem come December.
  11. mitchnick
    All 3 ensembles are showing just that thru the end of their runs today (again.)
  12. mitchnick
  13. mitchnick
    Enjoy it for now. It's gone after tomorrow.
  14. mitchnick
    Practicing for winter. Ukie ensembles.
  15. mitchnick
    From the bottom of the barrel, the Icon ensembles.
  16. mitchnick
    Wasn't the EuroAi and Eps combo the winning team over the weekend?
  17. mitchnick
    6z Eps
  18. mitchnick
    The +NAO strengthened thru mid October on all the ensembles last night fwiw.
  19. mitchnick
    It's fairly close in all respects to what the Cfs2 has been showing, just around .5C cooler. Unfortunately, that probably won't happen with the Niño level.
  20. mitchnick
    October Cansip update
  21. mitchnick
    Yes, but 500mb, temps and precip look ok. Check the winter thread in your forum.
  22. mitchnick
    I've been saying that for years, especially since the 2017 or 2018 "upgrade."
  23. mitchnick
    @40/70 Benchmark Cansips D-M
  24. mitchnick
    Cansips on TT (not all products yet) https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026100100&fh=0
  25. mitchnick
    Cansips for Canada probalistic forecast. You'll need to guess for US outside northern tier. 4-6 month period covers JFM. It's dated today. https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/prob_e.html
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