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mitchnick

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  1. mitchnick
    Jamstec updated October forecast out. Snowman19, you'll need some time alone in a locked room with its absurd SSTA forecast. Here are the DJF maps for SSTA, surface temps and precip. Link to all info here: https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html
  2. mitchnick
    My problem is grubs. I had the same problem at my Maryland house, all 32 years I lived there. Must be the clay soil there and here too.
  3. mitchnick
    I was going to mow tomorrow and then fertilize. Looks like I need a bag of Sevin instead of Weed and Feed. Thanks! Too bad I still plan on cutting it at 1" once we get a forecast for accumulating snow.
  4. mitchnick
    With the atmosphere always trying to balance things out, and conventional wisdom being temps are going to be BN (PV temps) thanks to water vapor, why wouldn't that balancing process include warming eposodes (blocking) or SSW events? Just a thought.
  5. mitchnick
    First of all, they don't state how much above normal. Second, take out 82, 97, & 15 since we're getting that high this year, and possibly 72. I'm sure that makes a difference, if not in percentages as shown, definitely in the degree of AN.
  6. mitchnick
    Idk if I'd call Nino 1+2 +2.3C well over 2C, but I do know that there's a very clear trend on this graph.
  7. mitchnick
    This SSTA animation shows it nicely as well. https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html
  8. mitchnick
    @GaWx This JMA site hasn't updated yet, but it should any day. It has temp and precip anomalies. https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html
  9. mitchnick
    Note as well all the ensemble members that fall off a cliff later in the period on the weeklies. A surprising number of the litetally off the chart weak while there are no members off the chart strong like those weak.
  10. mitchnick
    1.1" looking in my cheap rain gauge. Models did pretty well until the last minute coming in around .75". Thursday and Friday they were in the 1-1.25" range.
  11. mitchnick
    Should have come. One more deviant won't hurt.
  12. mitchnick
    Nice line pressing east and it doesn't seem to be weakening coming over the mountains.
  13. mitchnick
    Cfs finally sniffing out a jump in 3 and 3.4. I use the seasonal prog instead of monthly because it's far less jumpy.
  14. mitchnick
    Bubbler, you got your 70's at MDT yesterday. Mby yard max was 66.6 and THV was 69. Air was dry and that, along with few clouds, allowed temps to jump.
  15. mitchnick
    It's in a little low spot right on rt. 30. The aircraft fly right over 30 and low. Helicopters take off a couple hundred feet from the road. It's always been a cold spot. I remember when I lived 2 miles north of BWI how incredibly colder it was than BWI on clear, cold nights. I'm now only about 12 or 13 miles away from it as the crow flies and have only been lower a handfull of times in the last 4 years.
  16. mitchnick
    From his postings attached in this forum, I doubt he would say that this Nino has progressed as he thought it would 2 months ago.
  17. mitchnick
    9/23 update had months 11/23-3/24 anomalies at 2.4, 2.7, 2.9, 2.7, 2.3. 2 weeks later with today's update those numbers are 2.0, 2.2, 2.5, 2.5, 2.2.
  18. mitchnick
    You need to learn how to read spouses. Just replace "they" with "you."
  19. mitchnick
    @GaWx Cfs updated October. Slight change from 20 days ago. Had the right area for the coolest temps I suppose.
  20. mitchnick
    Cfs updated 850 October forecast. Better late than never.
  21. mitchnick
    More Ukmet seasonal forecast. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob-skill
  22. mitchnick
    UKMET updated https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59041-2023-2024-winterenso-disco/?do=findComment&comment=7025659
  23. mitchnick
    I was in my 3rd year at UMBC. It was very elevation dependent. If you/anyone is familiar with the UMBC campus, there is a loop around the campus with the west side the first hill of any elevation on the piedmont, with east being the coastal plain. This wx d*ck cut classes to go up to the top of loop to watch it snow and accumulate some vs go to class at the bottom of the hill and watch wet snow and rain fall. But there is a song written about me, so I've got that going for me.
  24. mitchnick
    41.5 for the low in the hamlet of Hanover.
  25. mitchnick
    Nino 4 has been cooling off lately: When in the fall/winter does it have to reach that temp which gives the warm signal and for how many months?
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