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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Yes, but like all the rest, is not perfect. Heisey seems to follow it closer than I do and he believes it's done very well. Past 240 hrs, imho it's no better than any of the ensembles. But you know how it goes, they all have hot hands and cold ones, but never know which it is until the forecast period has past.
  2. mitchnick
    Good, because the 18z EuroAI removed all chances of snow and now looks like the 18z Gfs operational by pushing the boundary off the coast.
  3. mitchnick
    I admit this is all a waste of time (lol), but imho if you don't have that ridging you're just going to have a storm too far off the coast. Fortunately, all the modeling will change enough come 0z that we'll never know.
  4. mitchnick
    You may be right, but I also mentioned the boundary was pushed off the coast. Comparing the 18z Gefs to 12z Geps and you can see on the Geps the ridge nosing west onto the eastern seaboard. Eps looks very similar to Geps. That's my point, whether calling it overwhelmingly cold or pushing the boundary too far off the coast is irrelevant to my point really. Gfs/Gefs, if correct, will not get us to a result like the other 2 suites imho.
  5. mitchnick
    It'll be next weekend at this time before we have a better handle, and probably won't have it nailed down by then either. Lol
  6. mitchnick
    But the 12z Gefs were pretty cold. They pushed the boundary off the coast at 240hrs and didn't have the overrunning. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=850t_anom-mean&rh=2025011112&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  7. mitchnick
    Gfs used to have that bias big time but that seemed to have been corrected. But as long as the ensembles look good, I'll just sit tight.
  8. mitchnick
    I was referring to the day 10 period. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850t_anom&rh=2025011118&fh=234&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  9. mitchnick
    May as well since Gfs continues to overwhelm the pattern with cold.
  10. mitchnick
    Yep. Mid December and January 31/February 1. Snow on the ground entire month of February with like 4 events.
  11. mitchnick
    Yeah, it was decent up in Hanover with around 32-34" I believe. I'm less than 10 miles north of him.
  12. mitchnick
    It's on TT now.
  13. mitchnick
    Can't tell with those cheesy maps. Too strong of a cold push unless I'm wrong.
  14. mitchnick
    12z Euro AI had a stronger cold press, so not so much snow around and past day 9 fwiw.
  15. mitchnick
    And then blocking may reappear as it often does late in seasons that featured blocking early. No guarantees, but it's not so simple. Heck, 95/96 was a Niña and had no problem being cold and snowy in February for many on the east coast.
  16. mitchnick
    Without the December and early January snows, I don't see how this year can compare to 13/14 unless we get crazy February and March snows.
  17. mitchnick
    It's a measure of the Pacific, not a driver.
  18. mitchnick
    Ughh. Hate the Euro. Lol
  19. mitchnick
    Gem is a gem.
  20. mitchnick
    Just gunna post. It's bringing something out of the GOM. Where it goes???
  21. mitchnick
    S&E again with the system. Ughh
  22. mitchnick
    Gem has that trough stuck in the sw. Where have we seen that before?
  23. mitchnick
    Ninjad
  24. mitchnick
    Gem may have something post 180hrs
  25. mitchnick
    Looks like 1 on Thursday to me.
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