mitchnick

The Geps is trending toward the -Nao ridge bleeding south just as the Gefs. Put this Geps 500mb anomalies from 12z today post 348hrs+. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2024020512&fh=348

It's called...the writing is on the wall. This is the 5th Gfs run in a row to show the ridge (see attachment) and Gefs are starting to show the popping of the ridge too.

I was in college when it came out. Perfect college mentality movie. Lol I think it was intended as a raunchier version of Grove Tube, which came out 2 or 3 years earlier.

Back to our miserable weather, top map is 18z Gfs at 15hrs (tomorrow) and the bottom map is 366hrs., which is 2/21 well into the alleged great pattern. Notice any worthwhile differences? Me neither. I had a feeling we'd end up with this garbage. Models really do suk.

I just watched that trailer, and don't remember 90% of it, but it has been 46 years, sooo...

It was rated R so I'm sure it was probably in the movie, I just don't remember.

Was it catholic high school girls in trouble? Edit: That was a skit of sorts where they advertised a movie by Samuel Bronkowitz called catholic high school girls in trouble. Then it showed a bunch of naked women in a shower.

I saw it in a movie theater when it first came out, but I can't remember the last scene.

Shocking, isn't it. But yesterday's snow have been a big problem for me, so no complaints this time.

Gefs total qpf thru 366hrs. One has to be concerned about precip imho.

At 240hrs, that may be the look, but there's a NW'ly flow over PA, so that limits us to clippers. Then I believe it degrades to a Ridge extending south from the deeply negative NAO into a similar look as hour 0 on the 12z Gefs. That's the way it looks to me now based on everything, not just ensembles, and considering the prevalent pattern we've been in. Iow, I rate the chances of the pattern reverting back to the look we've had for the past 2 weeks as high until we get closer in time to the 15th to reassess.

Ukie looks to show suppression thru its 144hr run and beyond that period.

And look what's showing up again at the end of the Gfs run. 4th in a row.

Honestly, I just don't get some of the posts in other forums. The weeklies look great, but ensembles and operationals don't imho.

Yep. Precipitable water says it all.

Other than an unimpressive clipper at 240hrs on the Gfs, nothing on the Gfs or Canadian thru 246hrs.

BN temps with BN snow in a Niño is every weenie's nightmare.

Both 0z and 6z runs of the Gfs end with a monster ridge in the east. Recall 18z ended the same way. We're talking the 2/20-21 period, right smack in the middle of the "great period." Something is screwed up. EDIT: I continue to not like the monster Greenland ridge as it's bound to bleed south and negate all the good.

Eps still has a signal for early next week, but I highly doubt yesterday's 12z run will come close to verifying snowfall wise.

Beat me! Meh, I went from 14" to 1.4". Gotta love all this great technology.

Gone on 6z and replaced with a much weaker system. It's a mirage anyway.

Euro says completely bye-bye to any storm, Eps suggest otherwise. Geps snowfall made a big jump. I wish I had slept later.

Finally, Gfs produces decent fantasy storm that will never happen unfortunately.

I started posting my concerns yesterday and I feel no better with today's modeling advertising different problems, none of which bring us any closer to legit snow threats. Euro 12z looked decent, but I doubt that threat holds in light of the Euro's performance at that range. Like I said in a recent post, if the Gefs are correct, we should be seeing similar patterns on the operational Gfs at least 1 or 2 runs out of 4 daily runs for the period after 2/14. Instead, all it shows are some of the same crap patterns we've seen this year.