mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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And one of yesterday's runs of the Euro gave you next to nothing.
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I dodge that bullet, but now have my eye on the line further south. Meanwhile, it continues to pour.
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Moved to me west. But tornado in DC proper associated with the southern end of the same line.
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https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=CTP&wwa=tornado warning
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Tornado warning just to my ssw in Carrol County, MD. I think it heads just to my west.
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Funny. Models are always too far east or south with east coast storms on the long and medium range (even into the short range sometimes), especially in Niñas. Happens year round, but we usually only notice it in the winter.
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74dp out there is nasty. Oye...BWI is 77
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Bubbler, you getting crushed right now?
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Generally speaking, modeling did a lousy job with long and medium range forecasts, with only some short term forecasts being acceptable all things considered.
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A very surprising 2.5" overnight. I checked the radar going back 6.5 hours and looks like I was right under the train track of oranges and yellows. Time sensitive link. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0B-1-200-100-usa-rad
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I don't keep a running total, so I can't say. But you may be right.
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Meh...tornadoes can go to helicity.
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12z Rgem is 5-6" here. Hope that's wrong.
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The Euro has never been the same since the 2017 alleged "update", so I'm not sure how much it can be trusted.
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6z Euro is sorta nbd considering other modeling.
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Bubbler, radar looks good over your way now with these appetizers.
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Well, let's not forget that Enso 3.4 only goes from 120W to 170W. If you look at that prog, most of the strongest anomalies are west of that. In fact, the strongest are west of 160E, which is the limit of Enso 4. So even assuming this prog verifies, I doubt it has a huge impact in Enso 3 and 3.4. Just mho.
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Absolutely. It always goes too cold for Niñas and too warm for Niños. Euro looks to have the best idea from the start.
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Except for the Euro, all modeling was too cold and have been weakening the Nina all summer. Euro has been stuck at cold Neutral to weak Nina and will be right if medium to long range trade wind burst forecasts continue to fail. That's not to say the Roni will be anything other than a solid Niña.
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Exactly 3" in the rain gauge this morning which includes the 2.1" I reported last night.
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2.1" so far with a break for mow...and water in the basement thanks to a blocked gutter. "No", not the one I mentioned earlier I cleaned. Gotta get that cleared out before the "real" big show in 2 days.
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18z Euro wind gusts look bad for an extended period when you consider the amount of rain to fall.
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18z Euro qpf.
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Still pouring here. Gotta be at 2"+ at this point.
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Thanks, but I'm on my phone.
