mitchnick

I was looking at a 90 with 2 of the closest stations 82 and another at 84. I think it comes down to micro climates and equipment. Jmho

That's why I never bother to look at Wunderground station temps unless I'm waiting for cold air to arrive waiting for a changeover from rain to snow. You just don't know where the station is situated and how accurate that particular station is. There shouldn't be that much of a difference over such short distances without micro climates and/or faulty wx instruments. I see the inexplicable variations within a mile of my house at locations with only a few feet asl' apart.

With all those 82's close by, I think some of those higher numbers may have the sun shining on the wx stations.

I believe it was @brooklynwx99 that posted WB is the Control run of the Cfs2. I believe what you posted is the Control run because it has the "(C)" after the words "CFS Monthly" top, left. I could be wrong, of course. Lol

Never?

Cfs2 is always a moving target. It was actually a touch warmer than Don's map a few days ago when it had the +1C just north of mby instead of just south. Once updated November forecasts come in over the next couple of weeks, it'll be time to shift to the weekly guidance where there's "a little" more accuracy.

I posted weeks ago I thought the best chances for the Mid Atlantic for anything decent was between 1/15-2/25. Still believe that's the case, but should have added nuisance potential thru the winter (1" or less.) I doubt a big year, but 20/21 sucked down there while I had over 30". I don't believe I'll ever see that this year short of a fluke event.

Not a long list, but at least indicative of a winter favoring neutral. Again, that supports the idea of an up and down winter being favored. I do believe you can scratch 89/90 off the list as November is not looking anonymously cold like 11/89 (assuming that you are using the month of December to identify the winter.) Unfortunately, very few winters on that list I'd be interested in reliving! Lol

Strengthening MJO wave on weeklies. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_index?base_time=202410190000 Pretty decent agreement with other modeling too. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Which direction in the sky is that?

67 here

Post pandemic, prices are crazy. I replaced windows in 3 house over the years myself with average price of $250/window. They're fine and the few issues I had were quickly resolved by manufacturer. I did put some more expensive ones in my sunroom, but that's because I went overkill with triple panes. Nowadays, middle of the road windows installed are often close to $1000 a window. They're nuts.

The windows are definitely a contributor, but don't waste the money on new ones. You'll never get a return on them no matter what any window salesman tells you. Trust me on this one.

Twitter?

When I bought this house, I checked out the attic more closely than the 2-bit inspector we hired. Even though we had aluminum ventilated soffit, they never cut holes in the plywood soffit underneath. I realized that when I didn't see any sunlight coming in around the front and rear of the house; in fact, they didn't do it for any other soffits around the house. It made a noticeable difference once I got things opened up. That's the only reason why I mentioned it. You forgot to mention what the cheapskates would do.

If you need ac in November, you may want to check to see your attic ventilation is adequate. Whether 1 or 2 story, with the sun pretty weak in November, an adequately ventilated attic along with proper insulation (which I know you have), should stay cool enough unless you prefer a morgue climate.

My brother-in-law's wife is from Western PA and she does not allow heat before Thanksgiving. He must really love her after over 30 years of that.

BWI is -2.4 for the month. Yesterday's low of 32 is in the books. Sorry TCC. Interestingly, Mt. Mansfield in Vermont tied its 2010 record of earliest 1 foot snowfall yesterday. I wonder if TCC is headed up there to confirm the measurement?

Notwithstanding the recent trades, as of 10/16, Oisst SSTA for ENSO 1+2, 3, 3.4 and 4 respectively are only: -0.077; +0.058; -0.138 & +0.031. Those are solid La Nada numbers. https://cyclonicwx.com/sst.php

If the 5 minute reading showed it matches temp, albeit contrary to TCC's narrative, then it's likely accurate. It's going into the books and that's pretty much all that matters. Inter hour mins and maxes are not unusual at any station. Living 2 miles north of the reporting site for over 30 years, I can't remember one time where their reading was questionably different than mine.

I always use the Cfs2 website as TT don't look right compared to it. Only problem is no 500mb anomaly maps. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html It's got daily monthly and weekly forecasts under the links under "Cfs2 Related Links." They do have 500mb anomaly maps.

Meh...consider the source. Doom and gloom makes money for some and transfers power. I leave it in God's hands and don't worry about to be quite honest.

The reporting station is near the end of a runway. I've always thought that had something to do with higher numbers than neighboring reports. Maybe they had fewer takeoff or closed that runway, because we all know the world's going to end as a firery ball any month now.

When I referenced 1901 it was a reference to my age. Quite the coincidence that 1901 had a similar fall at MDT as I never looked at that chart. Lol

I remember fall 01 was dry as heck too. Terrible winter after it. P.s. I am referring to 2001 and not 1901.