Heisy

As long as the low doesn’t cut to Detroit and the 50/50 is real I’d expect to see colder outcomes for the 5-6th event Decent blocking here too, I doubt this thing would cut as shown .

Better cold push here, less ridging, could lead to better event .

End of cmc same general idea, much lass amped wave vs gfs. What’s impressive for me is that even with how strong that shortwave is on the GFS the HP is jacked and there’s strong CAD placement. It’s a good sign that the Atlantic is setup well for a snowstorm. I bet we see a lot of ensembles jump on the 5th range in the next 24 hours if this look continues Yes I realize the shortwave is too amped this run verbatim. Don’t really care about that at this stage. .

Same overall look on 00z gfs. Confluence is better situated. HP building in. Not sure what result will be, but this is def the next time frame to look for something imo .

Agreed, at this range I just use it as a tool to pinpoint some threats, that’s all. .

Verbatim the main low heads a bit too far N so the overrunning thump is more Pa border into P but that setup is a frozen one with that CAD, and it’s 10 days out it’s about the overall pattern and potential vs specifics Check out this cad .

Jan 5 wave is growing legs. Woof woof on this setup. Amazing cold dome, 50/50. Cad. SLP transfer Some hint on the 12z eps, keep an eye on it… 18z euro Ai .

6z GFS created that event on the 3rd from the wave thats around cali on the gif below. One positive is the 12z icon has that same wave. Euro still nothing… .

Looks like that wave around the 3rd is the first shot at something, but the trough axis isn’t great and spacing is meh. At least so far. However, that wave then potentially sets up our potential confluence for whatever else rolls off the PAC. This is fun to look at lol.. .

Good times ahead ralphie. Both 18z gfs and Euro take a few waves to break down the ridge and are both close around that wave on 4-5th. If pattern plays out how it looks now we should get some snow. Merry Christmas/happy holidays .

Full on blizzard coming in on the 00z gfs for 1/4-5 . Okay, maybe not a blizzard, but MECS category. Fun to look at, steps toward euro

Dont worry about specifics. You know that. It’s very encouraging. It can all go wrong and we can get screwed again of course, but I’m really happy with everything headed into January. All you can ask for at this stage. .

.

Multiple runs in a row of the EuroAi showing this wave in the January 4-6 range. Keep expectations in check, but at least we have potential. I gotta reup weatherbell so here’s the pivotal map. .

18z euro Ai was off the chart weeniegasm Mother of god.jpg .

One of the better OP euro runs for the LR… Has a snow threat NYE and no ridge bridge .

CMC also looks better, .

Ridge rolls over too fast, we get some light stuff, but this evolution at least has a better shot at something vs the 00z/6z evolutions .

Solid improvements on the GFS, shortwave digging faster… .

12z icon looks very similar to 6z euro Ai Ridge position just unfortunately too far east. The shortwave does want to turn the corner, it’s just doing so too far east for us to get impacted outside inverted trough .

Been in this hobby for over 20 years. I’m 38, I was staying up the MRF, AVN, NGM model when I was high school lol. Models have gotten a lot better. Yeah if we’re talking about specifics yeah sure at this range it’s useless, but with today’s advancements we generally have a good idea if a winter storm is possible by day 7-8. We don’t see winter storms pop up out of no where like they did in the 2000s Last nights trend with the western ridge position etc favor a late blooming miller B. Euro AI has been fairly consistent showing that in its last few runs. Inverted trough/light snow certainly possibile, but that’s something that we won’t know until we get closer. Most, not all, but a lot of us are chasing the big dog. Big dogs usually show themselves by day 7. .

Right, but as cape just alluded this overall setup favors NE. We’ll see how it goes, just making an observation .

Euro AI was more of a late blooming miller B. 18z gfs likely a step towards a more realistic solution like that. The 12z H5 run as absurd. 1/10000 type look. It’s a Miller b setup, we know how these go… .

So there’s two waves, one on the 18-19th and then the follow up wave (the one the GFS blew up today and yesterday). We need spacing issues to resolve and models to really key on that second wave. Over the next 2 days I’d really like to see some other models jump on wave 2 idea. .

I’m personally meh. Not to sound all negative, but we got teased in the 10+ day LR all year the past 2-3 years. 00z took a baby step backward. When I see progress under 10 days I’ll get excited. The snow means on the ensembles are garbage as well. 1” mean thru 360 hours here in Philly from the 00z eps pretty much sums up what to expect over the next 15 days. December 2024 is toast imo. January could offer some hope though.