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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    End of 6z control vs 00z… and slp/precip location. Def some significant changes to the H5 pattern. Pretty sure that was going to be small/significant hit there .
  2. Heisy
    Was about to post that, that was wacky fun to follow lol… .
  3. Heisy
    Can we score during the handlebar mustache pattern .
  4. Heisy
    Ukie still south vs gfs/euro. Pretty wild model differences for this range .
  5. Heisy
    Hope this is right and not the OP cmc .
  6. Heisy
    Surprised no one posted the control, it’s 10:1 but is basically the extended euro. This was a sick run for your region .
  7. Heisy
    This run was likely going to clobber just Nw of Philly beyond 90 with ccb precip. Surprised down here, blip or real deal? Def a south push this run .
  8. Heisy
    I’m in Philly and i have major doubts we see anything either. GFS is horrid at snow forecasting. I’m also selling the cmc it’s been all over the place run to run. Seems to be playing catch-up. I gotta place in poconos I could potentially drive to if 15”+ is forecasted when we get close .
  9. Heisy
    Better visible here. Look at the angle of the confluence. All because that darn piece diving in faster. Really annoyingly that close .
  10. Heisy
    That lobe is killing us. The runs from 00z and before kept it separate. Finally 6z caved and phases it a bit and it’s swinging the main low farther N .
  11. Heisy
    Bet this comes farther N because GFS finally caved to other data and shows more interaction with the tpv lobe. Almost acts like a seesaw to swing it N .
  12. Heisy
    End of 6z control changed the pac pattern up a bit vs 00z euro run. Wonder if 12z can muster up anything with the STJ during 12z run .
  13. Heisy
    Blizzard of 24 24 has a better ring to it anyway .
  14. Heisy
    Yeah, GEFS still looks decent fwiw .
  15. Heisy
    Ha you beat me to it. Made my post before I saw yours. Now THIS is a map I want to see hang around. There’s actually room for amplification .
  16. Heisy
    I’ve said since Jan I loved the sound of the 2/24/24 blizzard… well…. THIS to me looks more conducive for a classic storm than anything I see before imo, but we’ll see It is wayyyy out there obviously .
  17. Heisy
    Either gonna be a huge score for the GFS or an epic fail .
  18. Heisy
    Cmc at least sped up the N/S. I want the Ukie to show something similar and then I’ll get a little excited before the euro .
  19. Heisy
    6z control is not good, sped up the main wave and it drives the SLP over Pa, so the op was going to be bad. If 12z doesn’t correct I’d likely move my focus to 16-18th. This event was always a long shot to begin with since it was the first wave of the pattern change and we have marginal cold air .
  20. Heisy
    Icon hangs energy back like euro but then actually brings it pretty far N, I’ll take that progression though. .
  21. Heisy
    Yes because it’s separating the N/S and main shortwave. Until one camp caves it’s hard to take any run serious. GFS is usually the one that does the caving so I’d lean euro evolution personally. .
  22. Heisy
    Didn’t realize there was a new thread. Here is 18z control. Still way different evolution than GFS. No initial phase and NS heads E. I think this looks decent .
  23. Heisy
    The control has always been the OP run at slightly lower resolution. Next year we won’t have an OP we will be relying on the EPS and control As for the GFS and temps. Who cares? It has a completely different evolution than the euro so until that’s settled it doesn’t matter. This looks like it may have ended up phasing with the second NS piece as well. See what happens at 00z .
  24. Heisy
    18z control improved on 12z. Less compressed flow. Has the same evolution (different than GFS camp) This looks like it was gonna work… .
  25. Heisy
    We’re probably another 24 hours or so of figuring out which progression wins out. Not sure which I prefer honestly. Perfect world to me is a euro progression and a phase with 2nd N/S piece vs GFS where yea you’ll have a stronger storm but there’s no lead wave to reinforce colder temps .
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