Heisy

Better phasing occurring .

Euro looks better with N stream so far thru 74 .

GEFs looks like the 12z euro Ai fwiw. I’m really hoping euro makes a nice stride here. If not by 00z .

GEFS looks somewhat similar to the 12z euro Ai fwiw, little touch more aggressive .

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The GEFS is phasing! .

Don’t worry about specifics, worry about the phase early on. Icon and GFS just surprisingly brought it back. This is an all or nothing situation, anxiously awaiting Euro .

This is how tentative of a situation this is. You strengthen that N stream just a touch and it’s able to dive over the ridge and crash S. Just that small difference is what makes this go from a BECS or a flat wave that heads out to sea. I’m anxiously awaiting euro lol .

One time! Lock it up, I’m not getting excited yet but if euro comes back at 18z I’ll lose my marbles lol .

Holy fook .

Mitch, folks…. .

It’s diving all the way in, going to have to create some kind of big event… .

Yep the trough is better positioned, it’s going to definitely be close .

Yep, looks very 6z GFS esque, common… .

You can tell the streams are better aligned here… common… .

GFS has a stronger shortwave headed over the ridge, good sign early on… .

Early on the GFS has a stronger vort going above the ridge .

That was a phase, you can see N shortwave diving in. .

Yea and also the northern vort is diving in, that’s a big step to what we want… really hope gfs or euro give us something .

Good post, that was my point earlier this morning that the phase we need is almost at day 4 so I was hoping by 18z today we started seeing some hits across guidance. Then the 6z euro happened lol. Going to be tough but I guess you never know I know you guys hurting, but down here in Philly I haven’t seen a 6” snowstorm in like 4 years

Take a look at difference of the shortwaves at top of ridge from current 12z euro and 00z euro. Newer runs weakened it. I really think this is what is partly hurting us. That shortwave isn’t as strong so isn’t diving as far S. .

Excited for you DC weenies, enjoy it. Let us up N get next Saturday though, appreciate it .

I agree, I was just relating to MJO. 6z euro going to the way it did mattered, but we can still quickly reverse it at 12z .

Yep, next few suites are bigger than normal. Very tentative with that energy diving over the ridge. Yes MJO 6-18z euro runs can be wacky. I really want to see both the GFS and euro have it again at 12z and icon/cmc starting to show some phasing. Euro Ai being close again would be good as well. We’ll see .

Yeah the storm hits us day 7, but this is a phasing event where the phase happens day 4-5. We need the models to hop on fast imo. Getting close to that 84-96 hour mark. Next few model suites are huge if this is going to happen. This isn’t like Mondays event where you’re just hoping for a N or S trend based on strength of the 50/50 and main wave, this is either the event will happen or it won’t based on if it phases properly. You could get a partial phase but that likely means something like last nights GFS, Just my opinion from experience. If by 00z tonight models aren’t on board id be worried. .