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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    Oh yea, I realize that, but besides pattern talk it’s the next potential thing on the docket. Verbatim that’s an epic ice/sleet event. Fun to look at that’s all. .
  2. Heisy
    Just for fun…also, HM mentioned on our discord that the setup could be favorable for an ice/mix front end if things go well .
  3. Heisy
    Major sleet/ice for us that run .
  4. Heisy
    Cmc is a nasty ice storm .
  5. Heisy
    CMC more resembles the Ai, doesn’t have the crazy ridge .
  6. Heisy
    Mitch if you look at 18z euro Ai that western ridge isn’t as strong so the northern stream energy is able to race eastward faster. With the big ridge on the GFS the ULL just gets trapped under it. Maybe it was an off run by the Ai, but one model is way off Check out these differences lol .
  7. Heisy
    Not sure it’ll lead to anything, but improvements at least. It’s a lot slower with the main low vs euro Ai .
  8. Heisy
    00z gfs differences thus far .
  9. Heisy
    Yep, it’s going back to what it was doing a few days ago splitting some of the shortwave off. If you look at the maps I posted you can see part of the left over energy in the southwest. This is the progression we likely need, but we also need the northern stream to cooperate .
  10. Heisy
    18z euro Ai, man, if only that northern piece dove SE ahead of the main shortwave, because it’s not overly amped. As is they come at the same time which doesn’t work for us. .
  11. Heisy
    12z euro Ai actually trended favorably if we wanted some front end. I’m not selling that just yet at this range, we’ll see what 18z brings .
  12. Heisy
    Meh, GFS and cmc now resemble the Ai, ridge rolls over, ULL gets trapped under it, we lose confluence and it’s a cutter. .
  13. Heisy
    End of the icon doesn’t look terrible. That northern piece would beat out the cutoff. FWIW .
  14. Heisy
    It’s going to basically be the same as 12z I didn’t have time to see what changed on the 12z run, but looked over it now… If you look at the older runs, the bowling ball broke East a LOT faster, now it’s meandering under the ridge. Confluence moves off by the time it finally comes E, ugh .
  15. Heisy
    It’s rolling on wxbell now .
  16. Heisy
    I’m always checking, it’sjust with these cutoff lows it’s so hard to time them right. 18z Ai have anything noteworthy? .
  17. Heisy
    Correct, the difference was around the time period the euro left energy behind and timed the northern stream with the little wave that was able to escape. Haven’t seen the Ai but I assume it did something like the CMC .
  18. Heisy
    12z euro vs 6z euro Ai… pretty close. Looks like some energy got left behind on the 12z. Timing of that northern stream wave isn’t good on the OP .
  19. Heisy
    CMC looks very close to the Ai but no confluence .
  20. Heisy
    GFS looks nice at day 8-10, that’s a decent confluence look. .
  21. Heisy
    Can’t hate where this was potentially headed. Need the northern stream to beat out the ULl to provide extra cold shot .
  22. Heisy
    Holy smokes .
  23. Heisy
    6z out? .
  24. Heisy
    Yeah HM gave a subtle March hint on our discord last night ha. 6z euro at 144 has a better northern stream push, same with EPS. It’s just a waiting game to see how the models handle the southern stream cutoff. .
  25. Heisy
    Models will be all over the place with a cutoff like this, varying speeds etc. need to get lucky with timing. Hopefully we can! .
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