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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    Eps rolling now we’ll have a good idea at its end range how the storm would have ended up .
  2. Heisy
    Lol at me saying 5 minutes before the run to probably expect an out to sea run or 2. This is absolutely fine. It’s the GFS’ cave run. Get the trailer wave backed up a little farther W in future runs and we good. The GFS doing this just gives more credit towards euro camp. Cya all at 00z .
  3. Heisy
    12z gfs was much faster because it was still in the middle of deciding between which wave to focus on. 18z is much more aligned with icon/euro progression . Trailer wave now gaining traction at this hour, it’s a bit farther E than Euro though so this might be out to sea but I’m happy about the GFS caving to that progression .
  4. Heisy
    Can tell the GFS has morphed itself into the trailer wave idea as well, the trough is much farther backed up W vs prior runs. Timing will be more like euro .
  5. Heisy
    Yea, and the type of system this is evolving into is also very reliant on timing. I could see the GFS squash everything to the SE for a suite or 2 wouldn’t be shocked if that happened. Probably be a good thing. We want the EPS to stay the course and improve though .
  6. Heisy
    Yeppers, I didn’t foresee that possibility until I noticed the 6z eps/control hint at it. It allows the Front running wave to press the cold a little better. Then question becomes how much drag does the trailer wave have. If you noticed, the 12z euro actually missed a phase down south. Wonder if that would have been better or worst for us though. .
  7. Heisy
    18z icon vs 12z euro, pretty amazing similarities .
  8. Heisy
    Fan of the icon at the end of its run. In fact I bet that would have lead to very euro like solution if it went beyond 120, happy hour time . Almost looks identical to euro
  9. Heisy
    Right where we want it… .
  10. Heisy
    Without a decent 50/50 in this setup you strengthen the low too much its gonna cut or develop too late, not much room for improvement unless the wave is really flat but then you lose precip. Look at the difference in the Atlantic. The second time period is a much more conducive setup for mid Atlantic. .
  11. Heisy
    GEFS vs 18z, that’s not what we want to see at 50/50 region .
  12. Heisy
    The 18z eps didn’t look like it trended the right way with the potential 50/50 so my hopes aren’t that high, but I’m with you. Buy me a window seat .
  13. Heisy
    Gfs vs 12z euro, still way different. Not encouraged that the cmc and icon look more like the GFS. Maybe the euro caves tonight? .
  14. Heisy
    Remember it could always be worst, check out the difference on the snow map for this event just 3 days out lol .
  15. Heisy
    Early on, for better or worse there gonna be some changes on the GFS .
  16. Heisy
    18z control is kind of odd at end of run. Just posting cause it tends to follow OP pretty closely and im bored. Trough is really positively tilted. It almost looks like it was gonna dig and close off at the back end of the trough, which would have maybe allowed the front to clear first. Almost anafrontal… Here is 18z eps as well .
  17. Heisy
    My theory holds, those two pieces I mentioned were farther apart, hence a worst “snow” run. The runs that phases those waves quicker (like 00z euro) allowed spacing between the tpv and main shortwave and end better for us .
  18. Heisy
    18z gfs Gfs vs euro around day 5, a lot to iron out .
  19. Heisy
    One minor detail I noticed. I’m a sicko and like to compare “good” outcome runs “bad” outcome runs for snow. Today what I noticed is that the model runs that are better for us tend to have these two shortwaves phasing better. The farther apart these two the worst the outcome ends up being for our region fwiw. .
  20. Heisy
    Actually Check that Brooklyn, I didn’t really do a deep dive beyond the 20th yet. On second look, wow. Stealing some of this from Brian on our forum… This isn’t an Atlantic blocking pattern, but -EPO, Cold air available. Split flow. Cold air gradient where we want it to be I bet anomalies are BN for temps .
  21. Heisy
    Yea I think there mores of northern stream redeveloper threat around the 20th. Eps not really on that today, but GEFS was… .
  22. Heisy
    It does look at the moment that there might be a pattern relaxation beyond the 22-23rd. Hopefully we’re able to take advantage during these two time frames .
  23. Heisy
    Not sure anyone noticed, but last nights euro and todays had freezing rain for our regions. Guess the cold dome is strong enough .
  24. Heisy
    Only thing I’m not happy about right now is it does seem like the models are sending us the faint signal they like C PA up thru interior NE. Ignore the amount, just the placement. .
  25. Heisy
    Exactly, this isn’t a snowstorm without that 50/50 trending in better spot/stronger. Unless the main wave ends up being really really flat and we just get snow showers/light snow. Any deep trough with that TPV position neeeds a 50/50. .
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