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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
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  2. Heisy
    I’d also bet we see a fronto band go much farther N than modeled. So places in N and North Central PA prob get a mesonband that piles on up there .
  3. Heisy
    From the Mets on phillywx kuchera less reliable this event vs Cobb. Ratios right now been 8-10:1 using Cobb. I think a solid 4-6” call is proper at this stage, we’ll probably see a WSW for the area since there will be a chance for 6+ .
  4. Heisy
    Also will add, models currently want to take the southern wave and cut it off under the ridge, but if that can stay far enough E and phase with the incoming Northern Stream shortwave it will increase the odds of getting this thing up the coast. .
  5. Heisy
    12z euro Ai almost turns the corner with the Jan 10-11 potential event, as is it crushes the southern mid Atlantic. This one has HECS potential if everything happened perfectly for us. As is it is currently favoring the SE, but we’ll see .
  6. Heisy
    This feels like a VA event. There’s some decent agreement forming. We’ll see some tics from here on out but i highly doubt we’re in the max stripe. That’s going to be somewhere in VA. What sucks is it’s looking dry beyond this. Wave on the 10th looks too progressive at this stage .
  7. Heisy
    Discord, I don’t use discord for anything except phillywx you should try it you’ll get used to it fast man, we’re all over there .
  8. Heisy
    Hey Mitch, miss you over in the Philly forums. I like where we’re at this stage of the game. Long way to go, need the 50/50 to relax .
  9. Heisy
    The 50/50 and confluence was weaker/N. 6z euro would have been a bump N for sure, but it still would have been a very good hit. It was probably perfect, but it won’t matter in about 3 hours anyway. Pay attention to the confluence in my GIF .
  10. Heisy
    I need a dog, but my fear is 6th gets sheared and it screws up the spacing for the follow up wave. Sometimes we don’t truly cash until a block breaks down anyway. We’ll see. 00z gfs starting up shortly .
  11. Heisy
    This isn’t bad for the end of the run. What could go wrong is a piece of the TPV drops down and phases with the shortwave bringing it N (like the 6z euro Ai did). We’ll see, still think a front ender makes sense for the 6th. Would be nice GFS time .
  12. Heisy
    I think it looks fine verbatim anyway, close enough .
  13. Heisy
    The best lift is up towards PA. Dc never gets above freezing at 850. At face value it would probably be snow, mix to dry slot, but it’s very close at being a good hit vs the OP euro .
  14. Heisy
    12z euro Ai much better for the event on the 6th. Solid thump. I think the OP is on crack sending the SLP that far N with that TPV sitting in SE Canada. I don’t buy it. Ensembles generally agree. .
  15. Heisy
    Yeah it ticked better. If that setup is legit it makes sense for it to be a thump type deal. Loooong way to go though .
  16. Heisy
    Yea i agree I bet we see at least a front end type system with the potential CAD and cold air available, I’d be shocked if we get shut out .
  17. Heisy
    As long as the low doesn’t cut to Detroit and the 50/50 is real I’d expect to see colder outcomes for the 5-6th event Decent blocking here too, I doubt this thing would cut as shown .
  18. Heisy
    Better cold push here, less ridging, could lead to better event .
  19. Heisy
    End of cmc same general idea, much lass amped wave vs gfs. What’s impressive for me is that even with how strong that shortwave is on the GFS the HP is jacked and there’s strong CAD placement. It’s a good sign that the Atlantic is setup well for a snowstorm. I bet we see a lot of ensembles jump on the 5th range in the next 24 hours if this look continues Yes I realize the shortwave is too amped this run verbatim. Don’t really care about that at this stage. .
  20. Heisy
    Same overall look on 00z gfs. Confluence is better situated. HP building in. Not sure what result will be, but this is def the next time frame to look for something imo .
  21. Heisy
    Agreed, at this range I just use it as a tool to pinpoint some threats, that’s all. .
  22. Heisy
    Verbatim the main low heads a bit too far N so the overrunning thump is more Pa border into P but that setup is a frozen one with that CAD, and it’s 10 days out it’s about the overall pattern and potential vs specifics Check out this cad .
  23. Heisy
    Jan 5 wave is growing legs. Woof woof on this setup. Amazing cold dome, 50/50. Cad. SLP transfer Some hint on the 12z eps, keep an eye on it… 18z euro Ai .
  24. Heisy
    6z GFS created that event on the 3rd from the wave thats around cali on the gif below. One positive is the 12z icon has that same wave. Euro still nothing… .
  25. Heisy
    Looks like that wave around the 3rd is the first shot at something, but the trough axis isn’t great and spacing is meh. At least so far. However, that wave then potentially sets up our potential confluence for whatever else rolls off the PAC. This is fun to look at lol.. .
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