Heisy

Icon just having an event on the EC at this range is a positive sign. We take .

The parade of pac waves actually helps us as it speeds up any wave and doesn’t allow them to get too amped. Just need support from a 50/50 and we should be good .

If we get lucky the 7-8th event phases in with the TPV, creates another 50/50 and we stay on the right side of the gradient for a front ended Jan 9-11. It’s certainly possible if the block is real like in the EPs etc .

A lot closer this run vs previous, but not there yet .

12z euro looks more like cmc with the phasing N/S shortwave than previous runs. Could be close here if we get the phase/turn corner .

Brighten the mood, 12z icon goes ape lol .

Even look at last nights 00z euro control for another example. It has this block and not an inch of snow anywhere near us. It goes from this…. To this… Yet no snow anywhere because of same reasons you mentioned. Not that I care what the model shows verbatim, just another example .

Wave gets obliterated by the 50/50 above and that strong pac wave crashing on shore behind it speeding it up. There will be a HP wedged to the NE of us as this thing comes N for a short time it seems. I think there could be a thin line of accumulating to the north of this thing. In future runs I’d root on for the main shortwave to have more latitude as it heads east because it’s going to get shredded no matter what. What is discouraging is the one model today that brought the low far enough N was the CMC and it ended up being too warm except for far NW burbs. Cmc didn’t look as good as the GFS in SE canada though so who knows. Pretty strong thread the needle situation, but I guess it’s something to track at least. PS Best look of the day for this storm was probably the 12z JMA at 192 lol. .

That’s pretty much the consensus it seems. We have two semi long shots, both sort of thread the needle on the dates you mentioned. Then after that 7-8th wave there’s a warm spell for 1-3 days between 8-10th. Then we latch our hope on the AO and see how far S and E that western Canada cold dump can go. Sound about right? .

Hope this is wrong, it just never wants to come east lol. .

I know this isn’t horrible but it’s frustrating we can’t get the cold anomalies farther SE. they just want to hang in central conus .looks like a def warm up between 8-11th before this hopefully pushes east, well see .

Pretty good agreement between 12z OP and 6z ensemble with how pattern progresses. Probably get a couple day warm up ahead of the cold push. Then we hope that trough can push east and a block forms. .

See if this comes up the coast or gets crushed .

12z cmc and gfs have better TPV positioning and cold press out ahead of the potential Jan 6-8 wave. Like i mentioned both with more phasing with the N stream. Could be good here we’ll see .

I think the more N stream energy we have interject into the 3-5th wave will help us with the 6-8th wave. Just something to keep an eye on. .

Gonna be a big cold dump out west around 8-10. Been on GFS and other models multiple runs now. I think we’re realistically pushing till mid month+ for a snow threat. .

Canadian gives us hope. Monster 50/50 low. Probably would shred any low anyway, Its ensembles like an event between day 9-11 I’m sure it’ll be gone though in 11 hours .

This storm has major issues I think. We don’t snow with Lps in the lakes. There’s no cold Press out ahead of it. Just that cutoff low that doesn’t really do anything. The mean is skewed by what Psu mentioned earlier imo. Warm and wet chilly and dry, there’s a reason the snow mean is putrid up to this point. Hope it changes but not feeling great .

I’m almost 40 and still have the original weenie in my heart. HM on our board gave us some hope about MJO wave. At least Ne is struggling with us this time. Now they feel the pain too. .

Yea and that’s a sign the setup isn’t that good. There’s too much ridging ahead of the low. There’s a N/S push but it’s timed with the low so we have a LP sitting at the lakes. Does nothing to help hold in any cold. .

I realize that, it gets there eventually but we’re pushing 15 days then. It would def warm up ahead of that. Getting a little nervous that’s all. Negative Weenie vibes. I’m trying to hold it in lol .

I’m done. At this point let’s see how long we can go without an inch of snow. 3 years? 5 years? A decade? Maybe it’s possible idk? .

12z euro has that Jan 4-5 event but there’s just no room for it to do anything. The timing with the shortwave behind it and the N/S are horrible. Then it looks likes it’s about to cook up another rain storm day 10+ This gives me ptsd from last few years. Blocking with SE ridge. Someone get me a dog .

End of cmc run looks juicy. Probably need a little movement in key pieces, but it’s close. I personally like 6-8th as the time frame to watch .

Yea hopefully just a blip run, that would suck. Weeklies look good for SSW but they’re last night .