Heisy

Don’t kill me too much, I know we have a window for something hopefully between 1/2-10, but this being the snow mean from the 6z GEFS through 300 hours is sad and discouraging. Just one run though . .

Wouldn’t really worry about the first couple days of Jan at this point. Looks like we may very well may get a SSW. I’m all in around mid month to Feb This is epic here .

Yea we’re in the warm sector of a cold front there… at that stage It has entered the plains. It would eventually come East, as I mentioned we’d warm up for a few days ahead of any arctic blast. That’s if GFS is even close to being right who knows… .

I was in Dover NJ for that event. Originally drove to Allentown and I think a few runs of the NAM and others freaked me out as there was shift to the N. Drove to Dover as it was starting. Was a good decision even though Allentown still got crushed as well Feb 2013 went to Marlboro MA (great storm but missed the prime band that went through CT etc) March 2013: the storm that slammed SNE I actually drove to NW VA as it originally looked great there. Ended up with like 6” of slop 2015 went to RI, missed the bulk in C MA 2020 went to Lewistown Pa, this one haunted me because The King Walt Drag PM me to go to Binghamton NY the morning of and I didn’t see it. I got slotted during the night of the storm and only ended up with like 14-16” if I recall while just N of me got 2’+ Went to Estes Park Colorado 2021. Fun storm just because of the location. Wasn’t as much snow as I was hoping for though. And of course the 2022 event Coastalwx referenced where I finally practically jackpotted .

I’ve done the same countless times. Gets me in that snowstorm mood. That was a fun trip. First time I ever made it to pretty much the jackpot region. Hoping to score a big event at home for once. .

Strat playing a role on the GFS .

And boom look what shows up at the end of the model run… .

Gonna see some severe arctic outbreaks show up on models come Mid Jan if this is right .

I remember the GFS run during Christmas Day that clobbered us. My buddy was texting me, we still didn’t believe it until the euro that night came On board. Here in Philly the lead up of the event was more fun than the actually storm itself since we sort of got fringed of the good stuff, still a great memory. .

Probably some of the best runs of the year last night. This is getting close to textbook. Always ways we can fail but I’m starting to gain a lot of confidence we’ll see accumulating snow first 10 days of January. Also, check out the strat as posted by a user on our Philly sub. .

I think this event is probably a long shot. It then looks like Jan 2-5th is next on the docket based on the timing of all the shortwaves. Will have more cold air to work with. Just gotta time one of these STJ waves with a TPV diving SE out ahead of it. Let’s make it happen already, I’m really itching to track something .

EPS still looks good to me headed into January, but it doesn’t look as good as it did on the Sunday 12z run .

You can sort of see the heights near the 50/50 land look more prominent on 18z GEFS. Gonna take a lot of work for cities to get snow during this time frame, but inland can def be looking at a big one if things roll right .

If it plays out as currently pronged we’d need to time the N/S 50/50 perfectly with the meandering big ULL down south. This run we had some decent confluence setup for a bit. the airmass headed into the event is putrid. Think the main low is gonna take way too long though. Even if this one misses/rain it gives me hope for Jan and Feb because we’re plenty of STJ influenced storms. Matter of time till we time something we’ll especially if we get -EPO .

18z gfs actually building in a 50/50 low for the 28th time frame event. Could get interesting… .

Yep, starting to feel really good about January. The 28-New Years range event is a long shot. Unless a 50/50 forms out ahead of the main low that’s a Rainer, but after that it’s game on. .

This was the best EPS run we’ve had all year .

This is a polar jet short wave , if it closed off in a good spot it would be fine for snow and plenty cold. It’s why we’ve seen some model runs actually show snow from the second shortwave. The problem is getting it to close off in an ideal spot. Long shot .

I’ll roll the dice with this look at this range .

Euro was tantalizingly close. Need a little better spacing between the two lows. Worth monitoring for sure .

Yea sure, I was just curious in general about any analogs for this type of system .

Will, any events off the top of your head with a similar trailer wave that blew up? Pretty odd setup to me with such a strong lead storm .

Gfs trended better with diving the N/S farther S. It does have the same piece. Just not far enough S yet. Ukie on board as well btw. Focuses over NYC though. At this range just focusing on the larger features. .

NSFW .

12z cmc might be really good… waiting for next frame that H5 looks sweet though .