Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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18z GFS vs 18z euro AI. Really close honestly Gfs probably begins negatively tilting slightly earlier
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The GFS uses some of its initialization data from the prior runs 6hr forecast. When I saw the 6z gfs I had a feeling 12z run would do what it did. It takes a few cycles to purge itself. I feel like the cmc ensemble mean is a very realistic outcome, but eps is highly concerning. Anyway, going forward the next time period to keep an eye on is the 5th which grew some legs on the Ai & some other ensemble means today.
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Thing is the northern stream is sitting in S Canada right now. It isn’t like this is energy coming off the PAC and poorly sampled. Not saying it can’t happen, but I don’t expect any type of giant shifts personally. I hope I’m wrong though.
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So absolutely frustrating that literally all we needed was that TPV to stretch slightly farther W and we probably see a blizzard from VA to SNE. Still, rooting on folks in SE
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Just this small amount of tilt changes everything. This is a hair pulling event because the potential is off the charts and just these small factors are fighting against it
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The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
Heisy replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
Hey just an outsider (Philly) visiting,, just curious, I see you state it is bullish for DC-Boston but the snow map posted seemed generally light. Hopefully we all cash in. I don’t know anything about this new model heh. -
Here is an h5 comparison of the 18z euro vs 6z to show what’s changed in 12 hours. In the grand scheme of things not a whole lot, but in an explosive redeveloping system like this every small change matters. I think one of the biggest changes is the 50/50 positioning.
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That 966 one looks fun .
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Yea that wasn’t going to escape .
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Took me a while this morning, my side of street is where all the snow goes. Shoveled when the snow changed to sleet, this morning when I woke up I had like 2-4” on my sidewalk of just crust I could walk across without sinking in .
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Ji is slacking .
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This model was really good last week, it had the fulll tpv phase in the medium long range when we were still in the suppression mode. .
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Yeah when the Ukie & Ai came out I had a feeling this would happen. Not throwing in the towel yet, if that bowling ball is farther N in latitude it still would work. The “what could have beens” are the hardest part of this hobby lol. Just a small change turned the euro from the Blizzard of 26 to OTS .
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I’m 40 but I still get a lump in my stomach before these runs lol .
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I wouldn’t definitively say that, there are eps members that tuck this into the Delmarva. Even into C PA. Not saying it’s likely, but not impossible. I guess you can say that for any event though lol .
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I can’t believe this might happen lol .
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CMC is the important run today, it’s been doing very well .
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We take at this range absolutely .
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100% agree, for the city more worried of a tucked solution vs a miss. We shall see! Exciting times .
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That’s a good analog, what the euro is showing is honestly a once in a lifetime potential event. I’m that serious lol. Things usually screw us so I’m not going all in yet obviously, but that euro run was a blizzard for whoever stayed in ccb for duration. Blizzard of 26 literally. .
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EPS .
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Can you post 00z comparison .
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Those low heights at the core of this have to be a record for southern mid Atlantic, wild. 5-6 days out. A lot can go right or wrong, it’s a very tactile setup, not many events progress like the H5 of this. As posters on our discord mentioned, Blizzard of 66’, March 2001 are similar type events where the west side of a tpv dropped south and created a coastal. This is happening in primo winter time so… still, all options on the table at this range. .
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6z euro, someone pinch me, wake me up lol .
