The discussion is like that from GSP as well! It will hopefully not stick with confusing patterns for the models for the remainder of the springtime. Looking at the current overview, the additional layers of complexity are evident!
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 306 AM EDT Monday: You would be hard-pressed to find a fcst
with bigger differences between the model guidance out on days
5-7 than what we are presented with this morning. Before we get to
that, we still have decent agreement for Thursday with a cold front
running up against the mtns early in the day, warranting a chance
over the mtns for the first half of the day. The guidance agrees the
front will weaken and cross the rest of the fcst area dry in the
afternoon, but not early enough to keep temps from making it back
into the lower 80s over the Piedmont regions. The cooler air will
finally make it into the region for Friday, with temps returning
to normal, or maybe slightly below normal. From that point onward,
though, the operational models diverge wildly and significantly
as we get into next weekend, with both models sticking to their
guns. In the near corner we have the GFS which has dry sfc high
pressure moving slowly over the southeast and Carolinas with zonal
flow aloft and a srn stream system hanging back over nrn Mexico.
In the far corner we have the ECMWF with a progressive srn stream
system that appears to feed on a tropical connection to develop
widespread heavy rain and possible flash flooding associated with
low pressure moving up the spine of the Appalachians. Wow. Needless
to say, confidence is low. In this situation, we prefer to stick
close to the previous fcst, the guidance from WPC, and the model
blends until a consensus starts to form, so we will keep a chance of
rain with temps near normal, which may seem unpalatable, but right
now there are no good, safe bets. We look forward to a resolution.