rjvanals
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Everything posted by rjvanals
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I remember that one and could see that as a scenario where this could bust.
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This place will be hopping on Sunday once we whiff and Philly and NYC score
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Euro Weeklies unfortunately don’t look great today
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We have 2 things that have to go nearly perfectly with this storm: 1. The storm needs to develop in time and not shift north 2. We have marginal surface temps with little margin for error Hopefully we get lucky but its thread the needle
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Euro doesn’t have enough spacing between the two weak systems and both fail
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12z runs are pretty depressing today
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Sun poking through w light snow in Potomac
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1.3” in Potomac as the snow tapers off
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Light snow but with poor snow growth
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Very light snow in Potomac w small flakes
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Snowing at Wintergreen based on webcams
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Hope the NAM is right
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This is what makes me nervous being on the north side of the forecast precip shield
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3k NAM has dry air eat up all our snow
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EPS are a slight step back compared to 12z both in terms of total precip and chances for 1”
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18z Euro wasn’t ideal although qpf w such small amounts is basically noise
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The March 6 2013 "storm" was the most painful bust especially coming off the terrible 11/12 and 12/13 winters.
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Canadian is a close miss south
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Having snow miss us to the south sucks but I'd rather it be a "storm" like this where the upside is 4" rather than be a storm with real upside
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Thanks! Unfortunately the warm nose at 800 was well modeled and deep enough to fully melt the dendrites which explains the lack of sleet even in the immediate NW suburbs. Any thoughts on if this would’ve worked had it been Jan 2nd rather than Dec2nd? My hunch is this exact storm evolution wouldn’t have worked in the DC metro even in prime climo
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Curious what the actual temp profile was when the precip moved in to see how where the warm layer was and how much we actually missed by.
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Unfortunate win by the NAMs who said for days the warm layer would win out south of the M/D line
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Looks like the thin warm nose has screwed everyone not west of Hagerstown w this event
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Looking at the 3k NAM the warm layer in the initial thump has been getting less pronounced over the past few runs and is really only ~1000 ft deep around 6k feet. If this layer could cool just a degree we could get a nice thump even in DC metro
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FWIW the HRRR continues to trend a bit colder close to the metros
