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rjvanals

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Everything posted by rjvanals

  1. rjvanals
    GEFS does show a bit of a signal for this
  2. rjvanals
    GEFS ensembles don’t show any real OV low signal anymore for 1/6
  3. rjvanals
    Any solution showing 4 inches of snow in New Orleans and accumulating snow in Tallahassee for 1/9 shouldn’t be viewed as a likely outcome
  4. rjvanals
    GFS having snow in the Gulf of Mexico probably means it’s out to lunch
  5. rjvanals
    Yeah I’m mentally preparing myself for the disappointment of screwing up a bad pattern
  6. rjvanals
    It’s going to suck in a week when we have no snow and none on the horizon due to suppression
  7. rjvanals
    Good news is that s/w isn't showing up in any of the other guidance and without it we'd have had a good result
  8. rjvanals
    The shortwave over MN is screwing things up imo
  9. rjvanals
    Before worrying about storms 10 days out remember the GFS is still showing fairly big swings for the 1/1 rainstorm which will have a downstream effect
  10. rjvanals
    Absolutely this is a good pattern just need to cash in and keep expectations in check
  11. rjvanals
    Good news is Syracuse looks to be in a productive lake effect pattern 1/8-1/11 with a general NW flow
  12. rjvanals
    One concern I have is the ensembles aren't showing a ton of chances for P>4" in the next 15 days liking south of us for 1/7 and a Miller B signal for 1/9.
  13. rjvanals
    GFS is on it's own for the borderline threat on 1/2 but both the GFS and Euro show threats on 1/7 and 1/9 so hopefully some quality tracking coming up
  14. rjvanals
    It’s not even Christmas so not throwing in the towel but it seems like we can’t get the good pattern inside 10 (or even better 7) days the past few winters so some ptsd
  15. rjvanals
    Yeah but the post from Stormchasserchuck calling out the progression we saw today makes me worried
  16. rjvanals
    It's annoying the rug is being pulled again
  17. rjvanals
    Tuesday morning could be a disaster on the roads if the NAMs are correct
  18. rjvanals
    Driving on the ICC this morning I was surprised to see snow on the shoulders and exit ramps from ~MM 8-13
  19. rjvanals
    Anything in that little pocket near Tyson’s?
  20. rjvanals
    Progressed from flurries to very light snow here
  21. rjvanals
    Flurries in Potomac
  22. rjvanals
    18z euro would give most of us a white Christmas
  23. rjvanals
    If we’re talking about Jan/Feb 2021 we got unlucky as the storms hit to the south of DC or just north of DC https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/12/27/dc-snow-hole/ We also had the storm around Presidents’ Day where a small warm layer at ~5000 ft turned a 6-10 inch snow event into a sleet fest around DC despite cold low level temps. We probably had a bottom 10 percent outcome for that set up and I’d take our chances w it again.
  24. rjvanals
    Interesting that the 12z models still give us a bit of hope for WAA snow on Christmas
  25. rjvanals
    Coastal is a loss at this point but maybe we can get some mood flakes with the system dying in the Ohio Valley
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