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rjvanals

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Everything posted by rjvanals

  1. rjvanals
    The 4pm sounding in DC that’s showing rain is borderline for snow which is the main difference between this and the past two runs
  2. rjvanals
    06z EPS Mean for 1 inch plus is 82% for DCA which is the highest it's been in the past 4 cycles. The 4 inch mean is holding steady the past few cycles around 30% for DCA.
  3. rjvanals
    Euro is showing a pronounced warm layer from 850-700 close to the cities in the key 93-96 hr window that the GFS doesn't have. 925 layer is definitely better and 850 is marginally better closer to the cities than the 12z run.
  4. rjvanals
    its a good run compared to 18z (has DCA at 32)
  5. rjvanals
    12 z EPS has 31, 69 for 4,1 inch chances for DC 6 z EPS had 35, 65 for 4,1 inch chances for DC 12 z EPS has 92, 55 for 4,1 inch chances for Germantown 6z EPS had 78, 49 for 4,1 inch changes for Germantown
  6. rjvanals
    The storm is still 4 days and ~16 model cycles until onset. The final solution isn’t going to be exactly like any of the 12z runs today (for better or worse) so no reason to punt this yet
  7. rjvanals
    Worth staying up for the Euro (and having an earthquake) but it reminds me a bit of the 12/16/20 storm where 4-5 days out we looked good for significant snow but the mix line quickly punched into the immediate metro. It was still a pretty fun storm with some high initial rates.
  8. rjvanals
    @psuhoffmanand a few others honed in on this window around Christmas
  9. rjvanals
    We need the Low a further south than St. Mary's County for snow in immediate DMV but we could at least all get on the board w this track
  10. rjvanals
    18z GFS is better for immediate metro
  11. rjvanals
    Yeah I could see this being like the mid Jan 2022 storm as the cold air is a bit stronger out front on the euro vs it’s 0z run
  12. rjvanals
    It’s a week out and w the 1/4 system not yet resolved we have room/time for significant changes
  13. rjvanals
    Euro misses south it looks like; has a major difference w GFS w what happens w the 1/4 storm in the Canadian maritimes
  14. rjvanals
    GFS is interesting for the 1/7 storm
  15. rjvanals
    We got blue on the GFS for the 1/7 storm
  16. rjvanals
    It close enough to watch. This run we get fringed w light precip but it’s cold enough at the 925 level we’d snow if the precip was heavier
  17. rjvanals
    12/11: 1.6”
  18. rjvanals
    Similar scenes to mine. Went 1.4 conservatively but it was likely closer to 2 here.
  19. rjvanals
    1.4in here w snow starting to wind down
  20. rjvanals
    Looking at some of the road cams in the band the ICC is snow covered as you get closer to 270
  21. rjvanals
    Yeah the band is legit w snow sticking to the driveway and slush buildup on the street
  22. rjvanals
    Light snow in Potomac, 34f w enough accumulation to make a slush ball off the cars hood
  23. rjvanals
    Snow mixing in; 35f
  24. rjvanals
    12 z NAM looks to speed up a changeover but gets the precip out much quicker than earlier runs
  25. rjvanals
    Euro looks somewhat sleety in the metros w a change to snow looking at soundings.
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