mjwise
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Everything posted by mjwise
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Aside from the rain, Blacksburg's high was 48 degrees Wednesday, a new record low maximum for the date. The old record was 50 in 1981.
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Those are some 10-inch pixels for 5-day QPF in the WNC mountains...
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2.19" in Blacksburg overnight.
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Hello neighbor. I was going to say don't get your hopes too high - but then I see Columbia averages all of one snowy day and 1.5 inches of snow a year. I certainly hope we do better than that. This has easily been the hottest summer in SW VA in the four years I've lived here. The past few years were significantly cooler and wetter than this, especially last year - 2018 was Roanoke's wettest year on record.
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Blacksburg 4-day storm total (from Thursday night to Monday night) was 4.1"
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Wet.
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2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread
mjwise replied to Tyler Penland's topic in Southeastern States
Glad that +ZR passed through at 31-32 degrees and not, say, 27-28 degrees. -
FWIW the CAD did overperform with this event in SW Va. We stayed snow through the entire main precip shield. Short range models almost universally had us switching to heavy ZR around 2am - never happened. Ended up with 3.5-4" of cement instead of 1" of snow and ice crust.
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2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread
mjwise replied to Tyler Penland's topic in Southeastern States
Ended up with 3.5-4" per reports in Blacksburg. All snow as far as I can tell with maybe a trace or so of ZR. Definitely above expectations. ETA: Went out to shovel some of it. Very wet snow. Light freezing drizzle now. -
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0111.html
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32/32 and SN here. Hoping for SN to hang out as long as possible.
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Still icing at the end of that rgem run in Roanoke...
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Inch of snow, inch of sleet and 1/8 inch ice on top of that in Blacksburg.
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28/28 and IP in Blacksburg.
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28/27 and nice SN in Blacksburg. 1 in snow on ground or so combined from earlier.
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30/24 and respectable SN in Blacksburg.
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The sheer quantity of foot plus reports out there is pretty amazing. In the RNK CWA, about 40 counties/independent cities had foot plus reports! This is some seriously rare air for any winter storm in this area when you think about the sheer amount of QPF and energy involved over a large area to make this sort of widespread heavy snow event happen. The heavy snow extended all the way from the northern to southern tier of the CWA with totals going over a foot going all the way to I-64. I think the NAM and SREF came closest to the extent of the heavy snow in this area. OP GFS was easily the worst of the major models.
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27/25 near Blacksburg, light snow. I'd estimate 11"-12" on ground measured after several hours of compaction. What a vast swath of foot+ totals.
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Looks it to my untrained eye, but I'm looking more in VA and during the day on Sunday (watching soundings in BUFKIT) - not focusing on overnight in NC. ETA: Latest HRRR definitely not as warm as 3km nam was earlier. I didn't realize how warm that run was.
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Not much forecasting left to do, and the only short range model to watch (HRRR) has been ticking warmer.
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Last call from RNK
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I had pretty much written this storm off yesterday as a 2-incher for Blacksburg at best after several super dry looking GFS runs up here yesterday. Of course I don't look again at anything until tonight and of course it was wagons north in the last 24 hours. Looks like we might still cash in. The 21z SREF mean here is 16.4" snow through 7pm tomorrow night with 6" and 8" low outliers. That would be a sight if it verified, but the SREF does like to overcook things.
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1.3" yesterday. Blacksburg is up to 7.87" for the month with measurable rain on 18 of 27 days. Wettest month since September 2015. Between all the wedge fog and the rain, my lawn has declared victory.
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They made left movements, yes, but not anti-poleward. If a sustained SW movement (not a stall or eye wobble) actually occurs with this storm, it's without apparent precedent in the historical record.
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Significant left/anti-poleward motion has never been observed with an Atlantic major hurricane at the mid latitudes in the 160+ year historical record either, so there's that too. Even getting to shore is an uncommon achievement for storms at this latitude.
