mjwise

Nice baroclinic support so far into June with the GEFS, EPS, and AIFS ensemble means all showing a 992-995mb low traversing southern Lake Michigan late Wednesday. Looks like most likely a cool rain for MBY.

No signs of any real summertime heat in the ensembles at least through the solstice for the GLOV.

Outside this forum, but Raleigh, NC is having a terrible year. They just set their (drought-assisted) 14th record high of the year down there, and their record period goes back to 1887. Ugh.

This was an NBM issue. The ensemble runs (both EPS and GEFS were doing it) as of Wed-Thurs last week were forecasting the development of a stout 588-591 dam ridge centered over eastern IA and western IL between Tuesday and Saturday of this week but then there were big changes across the ensembles by Saturday to a much more progressive pattern. The NBM apparently doesn't like big changes developing in the ensembles between days 5-8 and tried to "correct" what it saw as an error on its own. The extended forecast grids for our area were a mess for a couple of days because I don't think the local offices are supposed to alter the extended forecasts anymore from what NBM generates.

Subsevere rocking and rolling IMBY at least. Plenty of lightning and thunder though.

First 90 of the year for Chicago today.

Model sounding here for 18z is nearly 5000 SBCAPE with minimal to no capping, 87/76 T/Td, and PWAT of 2 inches. Charged! Already felt quite juicy out tonight.

Enhanced for severe wind also expanded into Chicagoland on the new D2.

Looks like it's real. Another report out of the same area at 111 MPH with debarked trees.

I never start threads but I thought there should be one for this with a Day 3 enhanced and Day 4 30% severe delineation already posted. Smarter people can discuss.

That ridge is fading fast in the models. LOT still had us well into the 90s for Thurs and Fri next week on this morning's forecast package but I think they're going to have to pull back on that. ETA: LOT noted in the morning discussion the point and click and zone forecasts are married to the NBM and that appears to be having some issues.

Up to about 6.8" for the month and over 11" across Mar-Apr to date. We had just 0.01" in Feb so quite an upgrade. Most of WI-IL border region is well over 10" month to date.

Here we got them for such a long period because DeKalb was right on the border of two different polygons separated by some time and the mixed E and NE motion of the squall line made them challenging to draw.

We got tornado sirens for about an hour here because of the orientation and timing of the warnings. No real wind here but great summer like squall line light show even into the cold pool.

A minute of slightly larger than pea-sized pingers in DeKalb at the tail end of the line.

88/80/105 in DeKalb. Full corn transpiration mode activated. Just disgusting.

I think that was the best storm we've had all year in Dekalb. Just a nice, seasonably strong afternoon storm that we didn't see at all in April or May.

5 convective complexes between Sat afternoon and Monday evening here. 3 garden variety and 2 severe. Over 10" of rain since astronomical summer began. Some totals over 13" up towards Rockford in that time period. Great run for us here. Of course half my garden has paid the price for it but at least it was top shelf convection? I'd be hard-pressed to come up with a more impressive ~30 day summer stretch I've experienced pretty much anywhere.

Looks like the biggest wind occurred in a Kewanee to Camp Grove line. There was a measured 105 MPH gust in that area and reports of at least one blowdown of a corn field. Glad we didn't get that up this way.

19Z special sounding at DVN, Powder keg ready to blow.

Upgrade to moderate flash flooding risk this evening for Rockford and Chicago. It will all depend on how progressive this evening's line is and if we see a significant WAA wing and/or training occurring on the back end.

Enough tree limbs down here to crush about half of my garden. It just has not been a good garden year.

Really good light show in the small leading WAA wing. ETA: Big boy wind with this line. No wind report at KDKB on the 9:15 observation. The ASOS is damaged per the METAR report.

The HRRR is insistent on convection erupting and a linear looking MCS congealing very quickly around 7-8PM in the IA/IL/WI tri-state region and then bowing southeast across S WI, N IL into NW IN in the late evening/early overnight hours. The HRDPS supports that as does the 3km NAM. The globals sort of show that for today but have better support for a similar looking setup tomorrow night. We may pull off the rare "MCS wave" getting three consecutive nights of evening or nocturnal boomers here if it all comes together. ETA: Upgrade to Enhanced on Day 2 for E IA/N IL/N IN.

The first three weeks of June were lousy here - too warm, too dry and led up to the hot but not unbearable week of 90s but then the switch got flipped and we got a few big boy LLJ firehose events and we greened back up nicely. The ensembles also have not been able to resolve the CONUS pattern very well even in a general sense beyond day 8-9 or so. There's been too much depiction of some vague full latitude ridge that would be suggestive of a plains death ridge type setup that then vanishes in the mid range. It could still happen of course but the ensemble models performance doesn't seem great this year.