mjwise
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Everything posted by mjwise
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They made left movements, yes, but not anti-poleward. If a sustained SW movement (not a stall or eye wobble) actually occurs with this storm, it's without apparent precedent in the historical record.
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Significant left/anti-poleward motion has never been observed with an Atlantic major hurricane at the mid latitudes in the 160+ year historical record either, so there's that too. Even getting to shore is an uncommon achievement for storms at this latitude.
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As a reminder, the GFS is uncoupled from the ocean, meaning that a hurricane can sit and spin for an indefinite period and be fed with basically a static, inexhaustible energy source. These GFS runs showing Flo sitting in one place for like 48+ hours are immediately suspect for that reason alone.
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I don't think the GFS models cold water upwelling or if it does it doesn't do it very well. Cat 5 comes to a complete halt just east of the OBX and maintains Cat 5 strength for over 48 hours? I don't think so.
