mjwise

We will see if today's high risk areas merge (or should have been merged in retrospect). If the separate high risk areas stay separate for the duration, that will be a first at least (I think?).

I think this might be the first day one high risk day with two non-contiguous high risk areas. At least I can't find any others.

From a review of IEM VTEC, KLOX hasn't previously issued a Blizzard Warning since 1986 at least, when the IEM VTEC database starts (and is populated by KLOX warnings starting in that year). Winter storm warnings for the LA-area mountains typically occur once or twice a year or so, but not blizzard warnings. I'm also not sure when "Blizzard Warnings" started as a standardized product. ETA: This article claims a blizzard warning was issued in 1989, but it doesn't appear in IEM VTEC. ETA2: This tweet shows the 1989 blizzard warning, which was embedded into a weather summary. That's probably why it doesn't appear in IEM VTEC.

Given the zone forecast yesterday called for 0.25" of ice, I'm a little mystified as to the lack of an ice storm warning then.

One report of 0.6" in Lenawee County is the highest I've seen, but IWX hasn't posted reports yet. Around 0.5" in the I-94 corridor.

The view from DeKalb. Even the grass crusted up nicely. A few isolated slick spots on roads - but they are generally fine at least in town. Still 32 out - GFS seems to have gotten this one right (never really had us warming up during precip the way the NAM, Euro, and other hires models showed). My point and click was predicting a trace, this is in the realm of 0.1"-0.15". Oops.

Hm, I'd like to see that reflected on a sounding. Freezing-melting-freezing-melting.

Power flickered and heard something blow up in the distance in Dekalb. I can see where this is going. We need 32.5 degrees.

19Z HRRR has ticked cooler. ZR in Ann Arbor from now until 11PM ET.

Same here. Rain is coming down moderately here. Ground is too warm for any ice but elevated surfaces and wires are a definite problem. HRRR says we should bump above freezing soon but seeing more persistent ZR in other short term models. HRRR for SE MI is just ugly - Hilldale, Jackson, Washtenaw counties looking at 8+ more hours of moderate to heavy ZR.

The SREF plumes are fun across MN. Marshall area in western MN seems to be the max. The 9Z mean is 26.8", with a range of 17.5" to 36.8".

Somehow it got down to 1 degree in DeKalb last night. I swear the point and click low was a solid 10 degrees (or more) above that. ETA: Yep, per the Zone forecast: De Kalb- Including the cities of DeKalb and Sycamore 814 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2023 .REST OF TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 11. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Yes. Seems like there hasn't been a full latitude CONUS trough predicted for some time, complete with the hardly ever seen 90% Below contour. Point and click high for Sat and Sun is 33 here.

ECMWF and GFS are both advertising a pretty potent temp drop plowing through eastern Nebraska and western Iowa Thursday evening - mid 60's to mid 20's in about 6 hours.

Not severe here, but that was a howling wind and cloud of leaf debris that just swept over us.

Just a quick storm last night, but Dekalb has had 1'+ of rain since August 1. What a run after a dry aug/sep the last two years.

I glanced at a few model soundings and it looked like it was mixing to something like 550mb or 600mb in the plains. It's done this a few (or more...) times this year. Mixing is only part of the problem though. The GFS in the medium to long range tends to get constipated and just amplifies existing features in situ beyond all reasonable bounds. It's not just ridges; the GFS amplified some mega-cutoffs in the spring/early summer too where a ULL would just sit and spin and get deeper and deeper at 500mb for days on end.

Not severe locally (DKB airport gusted to 40MPH) but two quality storms in two days is nice.

91 reached at Midway. Warmest day in DeKalb in 3 weeks, a juicy 83/76 out.

90's in DeKalb: May - 3 June - 6 July - 2 August (assuming current forecasts hold true through the 31st) - 1 (only a 91, and we haven't had a high over 82 since that) May and June had me thinking we were in for a real steamer on par with 2012, but summer in most of this subforum just kind of rolled over after the solstice heat.

Strong E-W gradient to precipitation this month in northern Illinois. DeKalb is up to 6.48" for the month, 1.7" from this last system. Freeport is the bullseye, over a foot of rain this month. Looks like spring outside here.

ARW/ARW2 seemed to do the best. HRDPS and RGEM in second. GGEM/CMC best of the globals. The NAM, FV3 and the rest of the globals (and their ensembles) far behind that. GFS probably in dead last - forecasting 0.1" for a city that got a foot of rain in the ensuing 36 hours. I wish the forecasting of LLJ-driven events was just a little better - they have historically produced the most severe/acute summer flood events in this part of the country and they still are just not modeled well at all. Same issue a decade+ ago. Convection is hard to model well, but the globals are still far away.

DeKalb officially ended up with 4.3" over about 30 hours from Sunday ~4AM to Monday ~10AM. Biggest rain event since I moved here a few years ago, and totals northwest were far higher. It's another under- or impoperly-modeled nocturnal LLJ event to add to a growing list this year, reminiscent of 2011. The GFS and the ECMWF were both poor, displacing the axis precipitation a hundred or more miles north just a few hours out, predicting a few tenths for locations that got nearly a foot of rain. (The mesoscale models managed it better as far as placement but still undermodeled the totals by a lot)

Dekalb ended up with more 90s in May (3) than July (2). Would not have guessed that at the beginning of July.