frostfern

Not good here either. There were some showers today, but they barely wet the pavement. Everything more significant missed to the west. It's at least muggy... and weeds/underbrush in the spring greenup stage... so no fire danger ATM.

Good instability and shear doesn't arrive until Tuesday, at the earliest. Before that there just isn't good mid-level lapse rates or shear, except for the far northern plains. Of course ECMWF and GFS disagree on the position and timing of of fronts / synoptic waves that far out, so it's impossible to tell where the action will actually be.

I guess the pattern will change to something more zonal starting Tuesday. ECMWF has decent MUCAPE coming up the MS valley finally. Worried it will be a lot of whiff south for MBY though.

Well, so long as it isn't dry to the south higher dewpoints can still advect north at night. Dryness is not 2012 widespread. Just need a front and low level jet to be aimed right for once.

I'm hoping an MCS can ride in when the front finally sags down on Sunday or Monday. June is never a good month for Michigan drought-recovery-wise. LLJ and convection almost always stuck west.

Good luck growing anything this year in Michigan. We are so screwed.

A week out there is promise.

Well, in recent years there have been tropical remnants in early June. 2018 and 2020. I think the 2018 remnants was actually very late May.

High latitude blocking would help at this time of year. Need some zonal flow for once.

Tuesday is the only real shot of rain for Michigan with an elevated warm front, then the death ridge builds. I will get lake shadowed to hell with a ridge SE of me. Energy coming out SW-US trough misses NW, typical trend. I fear things will go brown here even before the leaves are totally full. NWS is underdoing high temps too. It think it will hit at least the upper 80s over the weekend before the front finally sags in from the north around Memorial Day.

Models trending slower and more west with the trough axis as I feared. Michigan might as well be a desert.

I don't remember being affected by the heat as a child. I was skinny and didn't really sweat. I got bigger after puberty, and only then started not liking heat. I remember the basement flooding in September the same year, but I don't remember the heat so much. September was extremely wet for some reason that year. I think it was hurricane remnants tracking through.

Greenland block in summer can sometimes mean an active pattern though, which would be good. Without any high latitude blocking low pressure systems in summer tend to head up into Canada and the trailing cold fronts come through dry. Blocking in conjunction with a SE-ridge-favorabe MJO would be the best for drought mitigation here in Michigan. That is if it can lead to a stationary boundary oscillating just N or S of I-80. The fact that it's late May rather than June means the front might still stall too far south to make me happy though.

Dissipating cutoff ejecting from the SW US will probably bring some summer-like humidity. Problem is even if that does take a path into our area, it will probably only trigger hit-and-miss diurnal stuff, concentrated wherever the lake breeze sets up. Hardly a drought breaker if there isn't a more substantial system later on in model-uncertainly-land. Also the cutoff shown hasn't even formed yet over California. If it tracks too far west we'll end up hot and dry.

The Euro changes every 3 runs. Neither is reliable at this point.

Clicking 9 days ahead, GFS has got me down. Once in a lifetime, a t-storm will come around.

Peobably not cool, but probably very boring and dry for the Great Lakes. New normal it seems.

And when the ridge finally comes its one of those super-amplified dry ones that just tilts in from the northwest. Goes from cold and boring to warm and boring. Seems low soil moisture in the western US due to AGW has made this a permanent pattern. North-displaced zonal jet patterns are hard to come by. Used to happen all the time in the 1990s.

Depends on what side of the cutoff you are on. Cutoff pattern can definitely be dry if you are in the wrong location. Cutoff just to the east in spring usually means cool and an occasional shower that doesn't amount to more than a couple hundredths of an inch... if that. It also delays the return to a zonal pattern, which has much better potential for Gulf moisture overrunning a front and/or convection. That's the only pattern that brings real moisture this time of year here.

It's more like a Port Angeles Washington style "drought" here. Gets rain-shadowed by the Olympic Mountains, but is still next to the Puget Sound so it gets the annoying stratus gloom and mist, despite being "dry" in terms of what accumulates in the bucket. Below normal precip, but only due to lack of any HEAVY rain. Worst of all possible boring worlds.

Summer 2018 was notable for being incredibly warm on average. Yet there were no real heatwaves, just long stretches with temps 3-4 degrees above average.

Part of the problem is the sirens go off for the entire county while a 40 yard wide EF0 makes a 0.5 mile long path that knocks a few trees over and damages one barn. People start thinking every warning is a false alarm because their house didn't get hit when the sirens went off. You hope if there ever is a warning for a 1/2 mile wide EF4 people will not assume it's a false alarm just because previous EF0 tornadoes affected only a tiny area. The big ones affect significantly more area, but they just haven't happened in a long time here.

It's written for California normies who confuse hurricanes and tornadoes. Normies who live anywhere near tornado ally at least know tornadoes aren't things that can be predicted like that. They only tend to believe things like their town is protected because "they always go north... follow the river... stop by the hills... etc". I don't necessarily blame people for wanting to believe they are safe for unscientific reasons, but they'd be closer to reality just saying God protected them... as that works as a more believable fill-in for a phenomena that's fundamentally pretty damn random.

Screws thunderstorm season for me though. June and July are usually dry lake shadow months recently, while April and May have enough wind flow to get elevated storms over the lake... if there is a good warm sector. Honestly tired of these troughs all the time. They're not as cold as they used to be due to AGW, but they seem to be more persistent.

It seems like they always trend the gridded forecast towards climatology. To be honest the Accuweather thing where the forecast is “heavy snow” 8 days out is worse. Would prefer a middle ground. Good thing I read the weather discussions as they will almost always mention a lower-confidence significant event before they’ve committed it to the grids.