frostfern

The Saint Lawrence valley to the northwest is close to sea level and majority of the ridges in the White Mountains are between 4000 and 5000 ft. In winter there's usually a more stable layer beginning somewhere 5000 and 10,000 feet that acts as a lid on the air flow. So the flow of air originating over the Saint Lawrence valley speeds up as it gets constricted in the vertical to pass over a 4000-5000 ft. range. Now add to this the fact that Mount Washington itself juts up 1500 feet higher than all the surrounding ridges of the White Mountains. The orographic funneling effect is due to the range as a whole, but Mount Washington sticks up even higher, right into the core of the orographic jet.

Not a good look for the prime of winter. If only I could buy this pattern in late April.

You'd think I'd be happy with three 12"+ lake effect events the past two years, but there were no follow-up clippers to keep things fresh and the thaws came so quick. I miss the prolonged snowpacks that haven't really happened since 2014.

Glad it's a glancing blow for MBY since it was never going to produce anything but painful CAD. Being on the western edge of an arctic high with some snowcover is a nice for once - while it lasts. I do like cold nights and sunshine better than mid-30s + cloudy that's been so prevalent this year. It looks like it won't even get below zero though. Timing just isn't right with the northwest breeze not dying off fast enough last night and warm advection beginning tonight already.

Last 2 winters being in the LES belt saved me. I miss the consistency of cold and clippers pre-2016 though. Long periods of mid30s + overcast + bare ground made it more depressing than average outside the excitement of a couple LES bomb events and the minor wet thump last week. Not getting my hopes up for next week, but its nice to finally have some crisp sunny cold with fresh snowcover - while it lasts. Then back to more 30s-40s and constant cloudcover.

Watching the virga circle slowly shrink.

GRR went into a lot of technical detail last discussion... I feel like I'm probably the only one who appreciates this stuff though. I think this is the kind of setting where you can get rapid changes between small grainy flakes and freezing drizzle and huge wet flakes depending on how strong the upward motion is locally. Forecasting accumulations can be hard.

Most likely another miss SE, but even weaker. I'm more hopeful for the lead clipper overperforming somehow IMBY.

Hoping the track can nudge NW like ECMWF shows, and make that a trend. Just want something better than 1-2".

Not likely north of the OV, at least not before the second week of February, and by then I'll be looking forward to spring anyways. Sun angle going up!

California really needed the rain, but the endless Pacific storm train really did a number on January. One of the most protracted boring periods in all my memory.

Anyone else find SAD especially bad this winter? Perpetually cloudy, bare ground, and in the 30s is the worst. It's just cold enough to make me want to sleep all the time, not cold enough to be invigorating. I'm not just being dramatic. I'm seriously depressed right now. Like I don't even know if I'd get excited about a snowstorm these days. Hard time caring about anything. Anhedonia and constant mental exhaustion for no reason is the worst. No end in sight.

You can have a ground blizzard with 3". There were some amazing drifts in spots Thursday morning despite not a ton of new snow having fallen yet.

There's been some heavy snow here over the past 48 hours. Probably 12" of LE fluff on top of the 4" of synoptic snow from Wednesday evening/night. The drifts are up to 3-4' in some exposed areas. The thing is the snow didn't really start to come down hard until after the wind died down a bit. Thursday morning was brutal in terms of wind and cold, but the snow was light at the time. Though there was a lot of blowing snow in the air, there was somewhat of a dry slot between the synoptic event and the lake effect event. It was nothing like GHD 1 where the strongest wind and heaviest snow occurred together. These 50-80 hour lake effect events have large totals, but they just don't really compare to a storm that drops its load all at once.

Im on the northeast fringe with this wind direction and its too cold to really accumulate anyways. Yea, the wind and pixie dust can really reduce visibility and make things treacherous, but I don’t care. Its all the misery of winter with none of the fun because the actual snowfall is a nothingburger.

Even the lake effect weak sauce. One of the bigger storm fails of all time. I couldn’t give two shits about wind and cold. The fact that there isn’t even anything to look at in fantasy model ads insult to injury.

Non-lake-effect big-dogs are rare as they are in most places in the Midwest. Chicago has been more lucky the past decade as far as getting the bullseye on the larger storms, but that wasn't always the case.

The main overrunning warm-conveyor is missing the US entirely, unfortunately. It's hard to squeeze a ton of moisture out of the cold-conveyer wrapping around from the north, but the lakes will help some hopefully. With such a deepening system there will probably be some intense frontogenesis bands on the back side pulling moisture off the lakes.

A lot of what's boosting totals here is lake enhancement. It's unfortunate the main WAA thump is so far north.

If it's the GFS, then yes. Everyone rides it when they like what they see and trashes it when they don't. When the ECMWF has a bad run in someone's back yard it's .

https://media.tenor.com/XeoO92P0kQQAAAAd/ice-cream.gif Someone post this. F’n file size limit.

I will lol. Models will probably continue to us until inside 12 hours.

Welp. Hope this is an overshoot and not a trend.

I kind of hate being right in the bullseye when it's still 100 hours out. It's bound to wiggle one way or another. A shift slightly NW would still be good if it really goes negative-tilt and the stacked low ends up due north. Wrap-around WSW-flow lake effect can really make up for the dry slot in this area. SE shifts seem more common at this range though. I so wish I could lock this exact run in.

Lock’m in.