frostfern

Most summer severe events are associated with heat somewhere nearby. You just have to be on the perimeter. If the perimeter of the heat dome is up in Canada that's where the severe is. Troughing is the least conducive, at least north of the OV. If you aren't right next to the GOM (aka spring dixie outbreaks), you can't really built up enough CAPE without a cap to the south or west.

Cold stratiform borefest in March/April sure. We are missing out on a lot of thunderstorms lately compared to other years.

That map is missing a lot if local details. One county south there’s been more rain. Same north and east. They smooth it out. Plus the heat hasn’t been as extreme here, but actual rain is still low.

Im in the white but locally dryer than areas in yellow. Maybe less heat. Still dry is dry. Gardens are not doing well.

Actually, though I chased, the June 13 event was also a miss south for MBY. Big stuff either missed north or south for the whole year so far. The only events that produced over an inch of rain at once were boring stratiform events in may. It's more aggravating that the long term looks like continued NW flow with transient fronts pushing through quickly and convection dying as it approaches from the NW at night, lake shadowed, etc.... Same old same old. At least you have a good chance of heavy rain tomorrow. Here it's just nothing for weeks on end.

Big whiff south here. Very typical.

zzzzzzz.......... forever.

.82" but not even close to a drought buster. Best rainfall whiffed just barely southwest as is typical here.

I wonder where tonights convective train sets up. I want that rain bullseye so bad the anxiety feels similar to anticipating a good snowstorm.

Looks like a major miss-south pattern for me next week. Just can't win anything this year. zzzzzzzz

Light stratiform zzzzzz signal. Nudge it north please.

GRR mentioned anomalously high mid-level pressure over the south pushing all the gulf moisture the into the SW US. The monsoon started way early in the desert SW. Colorado front range could see flooding storms at some point. That's where our moisture is being stolen to. They need the rain too... but it's kind of a weird pattern and it's supposed to persist for at least another week.

And all it did was make the stat record more boring. It's not like the pattern will change for July. We need like three inches to really put a dent.

Meh. Really need more of that "flat ridge" (semi-zonal but very warm/hot just south) pattern to get widespread convection with severe possibilities. No amplified NW flow, no trough, and no amplified ridge extending up into Canada. Those are the three dominant patterns this summer, unfortunately.

A few models show a general half-inch, but GRR isn't buying it. I still say better chance of a spoiler with around 0.25" area wide, but could be lower locally. Cellular activity often finds a way to dance around GRR this year. Even the north side of town isn't quite so parched as the southeast because of some more hefty nocturnal cells just barely missing around the 13th/14th.

Some rain is supposed to drop in from the northwest tonight. Really hard to believe it will make it here intact with such a dry airmass currently in place. Counting on some dynamic lift squeezing out small amounts of moisture with some lingering elevated instability moving in from the west. It will have to produce 0.11 to get GRR over an inch for the month. Hard to say if there will be anything before midnight on the 30th. Next chance might be July 1. I don't know if I should root for a miss tonight to get the rare less-than-one-inch June. Pretty boring rare stat, but whatever. I don't know if the precip will be well-spread light stratiform, or more cellular hit-and-miss with thunder. GRR has been pretty good at falling in the gap between cells this summer.

It looks like normal modern-day June climatology of the "dying nocturnal convection" slot happening just east and south of Lake Michigan. It's more pronounced than ever this year though.

South and west always performs eventually due to instability. Michigan is the biggest rain hole these modern times.

Such a horrendously boring pattern. If its going to be a drought anyways why can’t it just go all the way and be hot. If it gets hot enough maybe it eventually breaks all at once with a monster training MCS. These constant dry cold fronts do no good. Drying up precipitation moving in late at night every goddamn time too. Like a broken record and models just show more and more of the same BS into july.

Very very screwed north of I-90 and east of Lake Michigan even into July. This endless parade of weak-ass fronts that only shunt the moisture south without producing anything isn't going to cut it. Every single goddamn MCS dies when it hits Michigan, day or night. WTF? Is this climate change?

Michigan screw zone going strong. All precip deflected.

I'm trying www.ssec.wisc.edu but I'm unable to register and not getting a response.

At least may was kinda wet here. Parts of Illinois are worse. The short term is really getting dry here though, and the lake shadow messes with convective rain a lot this time of year.

The Saturday precip does the classic Great Lakes Split. Northwest Indiana and Southwest Michigan are in the screw zone between better forcing to the north and better moisture to the southwest. The Wednesday cold front is losing strength and is moisture starved by the time it gets down here too. Maybe a random popup before it comes back north as a warm front, but not likely as gulf moisture return is mostly to the west as usual. I'm not counting on any rain until July 1 at the earliest. Doom and gloom man.

Is GRR winding up with less than 1.00" of precip in June a statistic of note? It's sitting at 0.85" as of now.