weathafella

Lol…their lifespan was 30 something.

Ok op huggers-today’s euro is snowy for many of us.

Paul, I think your approach narrows the possibilities. I mean isn’t AI inherently “better computing” considering the concept is deep learning? I think AI can be tweaked when we see where it needs to be quickly. As a crude example, my phone quickly learns how I use “muthufukka”. Phones five years ago took much longer and my next phone should even learn it faster.

Why do you have disdain for AI weather models?

I think there’s opportunity every 3/4 days. Obviously this first one is warm but based on guidance I’m seeing we’ll have lots of chances. We should be a lot more active and the hope is the boundary is favorable for us. It will be sometimes but we obviously are playing with fire a lot.

Inverted flake light snow now.

The ensembles in the 8-15 range are much more favorable vs the ops. It seems silly get tall wrapped up in op forecasts in a difficult pattern on clown range.

Moving the goalposts I see. Hard to do with the kind they use now…. 100% knew the details of this disappearing by later this week. Amount’s through 12/25 are still debatable but you must have a joyless life if you can’t appreciate the beauty of a little snow we have today.

Quite beautiful looking at the trees from my favorite chair. About an inch with light snow falling. https://imgur.com/a/PIoLL5v

Not really. If aloft is 925 maybe zr but if it’s 850 it’s likely sleet. Kind of reminds me of the gtg at Clarkes Boston a week before Christmas in 2017. Guidance universally had a huge torch starting in 5 days. Scooter and Will pulled up the 84 hour NAM which indicated the CAD signals. Got cut off at the pass with some ice and snow followed by deep cold for a few weeks.

Great presentation Ryan. If anything my advice would be to use a virtual background.

Gfs AI was 2 inches to the pike region.

Yes gfs coming in decent.

Do we have worthwhile local mets anymore?

Actually it’s a 5 day anomaly so probably 34/20 right at the coast.

Gfs looks decent to me

You don’t look it!

Recalculating…40?

Qpf field looks like dogshit at 42.

I’m 79 and counting. I’m surmising you are 42ish

Our man! Part of the crew kicked into the back room at JJ Foleys in 2009.

My understanding is the deep learn aspect more or less upgrades the AI models continuously. Maybe if someone knows differently my understanding can be improved. I think in a fairly short time the human involvement will need to evolve to understand tinier nuances to tweak forecasting.

Honestly if that actually turns out to be the case Skynet should do better in subsequent similar setups.

Skynet hopefully is right. Solid advisory event for most of sne.

It was epic! I was in the 8th grade in NNJ and woke up Sunday 12/11 with “provisional heavy snow warning”. That was the precursor to today’s winter storm watch. But more importantly after a mega torch in the early days of December culminating in temperatures near 70 on 12/4. It was in the mid 40s on the 10th so imagine my surprise (and joy) to awaken to high clouds and 25. My mother made me sweep the garage that morning and for once I happily complied as I warded off the oak leaves blowing into the north facing garage. By the time I was done the temperature dropped into the low 20s. My Giants were playing Washington in DC and at the start of the broadcast the announcer exclaimed “we’re having a blizzard!” I remember one TD pass from YA Tittle to Del Shofner with Shofner ending up in a snow bank. It started snowing around 3pm and it was fairly light for the first 6 hours and I was starting to lose hope. Finally it started picking up and by time I fell asleep it was snowing pretty hard. I woke up at 5AM Monday and it was raging. Snow tapered off close to Noon. Temperatures during the meat of the storm were near 10. The storm paralyzed the megopolis. It was the first of 3 big ones that winter. The other 2 were the JFK inaugural storm and the widespread 2 footer February 3-4. The February storm was the pattern changer and winter was never the same that year but what a 2 month run!