WEATHER53
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Everything posted by WEATHER53
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
WEATHER53 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
It was still a big one three days out. Let see if models can do Anything accurate outside of 72 hours. -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
WEATHER53 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
From now on I’m going to wait until 24 hours remaining to comment -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
WEATHER53 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Which usually means not nice is forthcoming -
Thanks for snow pics snd I’m getting more westerly component to wind and temp down 1.3F since 3pm which may be darkness oncoming or maybe Magic!
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Winchester and Frederick have really revitalized in last 1-10 years.!
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When did this weather discussion board become a model adherence board or watch out?
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And you ventured forth what?
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The models did another terrible job and within 4 days showed ranges of 1-11” . By yesterday most of them had a solution like what has happened. The most I ever went for was 3-6”. They very well may be the “best we have” but they didn’t get it until about 24 hours in advance so despite you being in denial, they do not warrant “respect” .
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Past prime sun time and I’ve dropped from 36.8 to 35.5. where is low centered? Maybe when it gets east of our longitude something better might happen.
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We have a forecasting technique which has undergone very little improvement in 20 years. Imagine if all other sciences had done same
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Frederick house reporting snow with close to 0.5” on grassy surfaces and 31F. 36 and sleet and rain here in Kemp Mill
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Sleet and rain and 34 Another lousy model outcome. I’ve seen 1-11” in last 5 days for me. The solution:Pour all the money into 72 hours or less. They can do that. Guidance? To what? -Failure !
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Actual at 8 is35 and predicted was 35.
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The reason those temps will be difficult is the clouds are here by 10-11pm and we won’t get the steady 1 degree per hour we did last night with clear skies thru dawn
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Actual at 5pm is 38 vs predicted 40 A good sign also is that most stations dropped 2/3F between 4 to 5pm
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I think we get sufficient clouds by 10pm to slow the temp drop to just 2/3 more degrees the rest of the overnight. I think its the low dews that have a slightly more positive effects
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Just now the snow line moves south and east. Looking at current conditions including unexpected snows well to sw and realizing dews and cold are durable for another 24-27 hours from now are likely creeping into NWS product and not just entirely what models say
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Just clutch your pearls and wait to be told what weather you can get
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At 1pm DCA has risen from 27F to 39F but dew point just from 16 to 19. That’s 4-1 which won’t hold at onset of steady but assures at least a 50/50 meeting between dews and air temp. Here’s how I see things for DCA so it would be better just 20 miles further north and west Friday 5pm. Clear 40 Friday 8pm Mostly clear 34 10pm increasing clouds 32/dew point 22 1am Cloudy 29/ 23 Temps steady thereafter 9am cloudy 35/25 10am steady light to moderate snow, 31/29
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Weather wise we are currently seeing unfolding right in front of us the effect of the strong cold high and low dews with unexpected snow to our sw i continue to doubt this low gets further north than Va/NC border or lower than 1000mb until it’s east-ene of OC There is considerable to look forward to
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When there is not instigation then there are no responses.
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Good points and thank you for identifying the instigator and I will consider being less responsive and more ignoring
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And noting due respect, name calling follows personal insults and disrespect
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There are lots of experience to be shared here. A few insist that only a few should do that.
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Incorrect. We just experienced the coldest, lowest dew point of the season and it got here about 20 hours ago and won’t go away quick
