WEATHER53

One method of improvement would be to shorten the time frame length of prediction The wind events we’ve had twice in last two weeks were perfectly handled because nothing was said until 3 days in advance. The most recent models failure began about 10 days ago with an impulse traversing the nation and supposedly setting off low pressure down south that comes up here. Too speculative that’s DC would get a bomb based on 7/8 days of required perfection as that impulse traverses the nation. Models can’t perform in mid Atlantic for wintry precip that far out and in those circumstances . So cut it out. For some reason NHC does not have such problems. Excuses are that it’s just all too complex. So just eliminate what can’t be done accurately and don’t latch onto impulse Before they even come ashore out west . Wait until 3/4 days out and something is actually existing on this half side of the country

33.6F still windy at 25* gusts but 40’s 50’s over and it was fun when on . Wind chill rough now,

It’s a good question and yes right around here does pose problems that all snow Buffalo or no snow Myrtle Beach do not. However it seems like that could be recognized and programmed in. There is No Doubt they have problems with winter frozen in the mid Atlantic that they do not have in other regions nor with other precip types and weather event types for the mid Atlantic

Thank you. When it shows 20” and two days later zero, what am I supposed to learn and take with me as to their value?

Do you believe that models are efficient with mid Atlantic winter storms? You provide great commentary and I bring Ernest and not trying to stir up

Down to 36.5 at 5pm after a high of 39.5

We can just watch it performing even worse.

37F full sun not bad but shade and these winds feels like 25 at best

I expected protect the supplier pushback. What the name for that? Starts with an “a”

It’s a tough fact to face that after two decades Im pulling away from this. Did not even look at 11pm updates last night and already had cut it down to twice a day anyway . Models can’t do their job as far as frozen storms in the mid Atlantic. Some will defend adamantly the supplier as selling good shit or I use it wrongly but is easy to see what that smacks of. Carry on but this broken record of repeat poor performance is going nowhere while you still buy it .

Misdiagnosed to begin with

They put huge pressure on Pepco to trim trees and it has had excellent results

4pm update Three hat blow offs in last 10 minutes so I’m now home slice with hat on backward. More later

The first car shaker just hit me at 3:34pm

Now a downpour. Let’s see what temp does

Winds started at 3:15 and now temp falling

Ravens rule I’m likely going to have to hoist a flying trash can lid warning Those things can do a real Odd Job on ya!!!.

Thanks however I read this as “it is but it isn’t”. More ambiguity.

Irrelevant The number of 4” snows that turn into 15+ is like 1,2. The number of 15* that turn into partly cloudy, rain or 4” is at the least 10X the former

That’s because it’s the only precip and weather type that creates impossibility for accurate forecasting according to many responses.

It’s interesting how upset the kids get and resort to name calling , excuse making . Winter storms in mid Atlantic are just impossibly difficult to predict unlike all the other occurrent seasonal weather.

Wow a voice of reason identifying need for change . I guess it’s up to two now.

Someone made a sort of new suggestion that Nothing. actually falls apart at the last minute . All the information and parameter possibilities were evidenced all along it’s just that models can’t correctly identify it. Hurricanes almost shit simple to predict accurately and winter storms around here mostly not.

So it’s trusting the provided info that’s the problem? It’s provided but not to be considered? I dont agree. Many models showed 20” for many runs. Then in the blink of an eye it’s gone. That’s not science. NHC Never predicts a category 1 hitting Miami and we end up with a Cat 3 in Daytona . They don’t then excuse themselves with how complicated it all is.

What occurrent event has actually been tracked? I’ve now seen several new to me comments close to “tracking for days is what is the fun and any snow is just a bonus” Do most of us feel like that?