WEATHER53

Observation and 50 year historical record keeping vs clueless and dependents solely upon models.

Definitely something to watch and the low is not going to hop all over the place. It’s a coastal. Might be too close or too mild but about an equal chance of it working . Right now for immediate DC area (Inside beltway and 20 miles in any direction outside) I will preduct 0”-30% 1-5”-30% 6-10”-20% 10”+-20%

And that look has gotten better and approaching special

That is a 9 on scale of 10 track for DC. Need low not strong as cold air very limited.

1/7ish was first thing to look good from the start and still does . Lot of convo May now drift toward that date and lessen acrimony . Mr Ji I think we have fun coming

I think waiting on indexes to do something’ does not work as well as just seeking when low pressure and high pressure will set up correctly for mid Atlantic.!I think 1/7ish is showing that. I now think it’s going to pull down quite cold air for 2-3 days after it departs

I’m not sure how much shoving a 1025 high southern Hudson Bay Area can do. Too weak .

This continues to be the one I initially expressed interest in about 5 days ago its the First snow maker sign for DC-low to south around Atlanta working northeastward with High around nipple of Hudson. That’s just light years better than low into lakes or some type of phasing scenario which usually skips DC. It might get shunted eastward but out to sea is closer to a better scenario for us than into the Lakes/Ohio valley

This is the one I have been liking . Not this model but the overall set up

Maybe evolving from cutter to out to sea to good?

Darn near perfect positioning

Around 8th still looks like a coastal to me and it needs to be. We get another cutter and all 20”+ forecasts for DC area are doomed. It nonsensical to keep in denial and default to “late season is Nino” Most Ninos feature below average temps from mid Dec thru end of Feb. One 10” snowstorm in mid Feb preceded and followed by 50 F does not a good winter make. We may be in a position where decades long prediction factors like Enso and NAO/AO just don’t work. We do see a lot of grasping about SSW and MJO but they are unproven.

BWI over 7” for month . only 1969 and 2009 top that since 1950 over 6 “” in Dec are1973, 1983, 1996 and 2018

And Bang. Epic Lake Effect Chase in Feb

First time I’ve seen something ahead with way low and high are setting up 1/8. Not much else held up so far but that’s a good look I hope happens

Jesus its a month away

As time moves on I wonder more snd more why there is so much worship of examples if weather that are 20-30 degrees differing and 400 miles east or west on the low every 6-12 hours.

Agreed Its bad when they are wrong. It’s Worse to say they weren’t

Well you always chase him away. He likes me just fine, Invite him back and don’t always poke at him .

I’m happy to see something nice and be able to comment accordingly . How is Da**d T. these days?

I knew and said the delays need to stop by 1/10 correctiin to 1/10

This is the look for DC snowstorms. Low might be south but not in OV.

Is your upcoming Mexico due to the fact that you are Still a dazzling urbanite???

We must start getting favorable tracks for low pressures and clippers or other mechanisms of bringing the cold down. Look for that instead of lows in The lakes and Ohio valley . Right now it’s just more of the same of delay and 10 days away until improvement

Get ready to get spanked