WEATHER53

So All of your example result in cold and snowy for Mid Atlantic ? I don’t think so

OMG now it’s the 12th

I got rebuked several times in this thread for discrediting a 12/28 12/29 pattern change Going from 55-60 for highs to 45-50 for highs is no change nor beginning of one to winter weather. Lol at your misinformed self

SSW unproven and overrated and essentially unknown. So now we are back to 1/7 or 1/8 and no 12:28&29 and no 1/2&3 . But the 1/7& 8 is DEFINTE this time? Several seasoned posters and some unknowns have been very adamant and quite chastising of us who are referencing the delay of a favorable pattern. 1/7 and 8 is your last shot for anyone to listen anymore . Any chirping about 1/15-1/20 that would begin just shows futility and denial

Last times DCA had 6”+ in Dec was 2009, 1983, 1973, 1969.

I believe that in our righteous efforts to better predict weather, this is another sampling that’s unproven. Hell we are having trouble with long established Enso and Ao/NAO being reliable so the new indexes that seem to pop up every 3/4 years just don’t have enough outcomes yet to be a reliable prediction package

SSW being examined above. Was this not supposed to happen previously?

Thanks PSU. That is a better look but it’s not the first better look that has been presented over last 2+ weeks . So now we just need the example to materialize and I hope so. Anybody get a snowblower from Santa?

So to recap the Christmas change did not happen, 28th/29thv the same , early Jan iffy, maybe 1/7 good.. instead of random 36 panel examples, does anyone have any graphics showing clippers underneath of us and/or cold high pressure over or east of Hudson Bay? Organized low pressure from Atlanta are helpful also. Phase job transfers are not helpful

Just a slight delay

Easiest answer is lay off the juice of 6+ days. The guidance can’t guide. Most likely manner of changing pattern is a clipper cut south and off coast and pulls down cold air. That’s a day 5 and sooner style event. Right now Enso and ao/nao just are not predictive bellwethers of years gone by .

Is he Still a dazzling urbanite??

Let’s get some cold and snow in here. So far the projection from Nov and early Dec of change on 12/15, then Christmas, then most assuredly 12/28 or 29 did not occur. We’ve got until 1/10 or we are sunk. I take No pleasure in sunk Low pressures and clippers gotta synchronized up . Noll going nuts about the umpteenth SSW which is perpetually just about to happen when things are not going well. MJO-Well Who Knows.

Kinda obsessive there sport You self appointed “correcting” of Everyone is Old now.

You are the knowing one so good to hear

28th forward does not start any change. That was a Solid target date just 10+ days ago. Yeah DC is going from 55-60 to 45-50 but so what .. Weve got until 1/10 to get the delayed mantra off the table and low pressures to move in the way that permits snow and cold here.

When a better pattern comes it will be low pressures to our south and/or off the coast. Not Ohio Valley. Clippers must show up.. This will happen inside a 5 day window and models won’t see it in advance

It’s cover all bases programming. There is no help for those who deny that. Not saying that you do. Observing and documenting weather and outcomes for 50 years goes well beyond the results of model sampling examples. When a delay pattern takes over it rarely reverses. I certainly was here when in mid to late Nov the examples showed pattern change mid Dec, then Christmas, then end of month, then first few days of Jan, now moving toward mid Jan. Get to about 1/10 and it’s game over. A 10” in mid Feb is not saving winter. Delayed but not denied is really mostly delayed and in denial. 360 day examples are worth jack shit, 240 much the same. “Guidance” is a euphemism for clueless .

Exactly my feelings so why do we do it?

Great. Thanks for update

How much more delayed are we now?

Amen. Delayed

I think we have a favorably positioned low pressure coming up from the south snd already organized, That works much better than phasing or transfers.

Atlanta area moderate intensity low pressures bring more good results to DC than any other set ups. So if that’s true and shows up , and doesn’t get delayed until a 1/15 projection example starts up, then we can be optimistic . These aren’t always snowers but the majority of what is impressive around here is from the Atlanta source region

Yes. Part of forecasting and model “guidance” is the timing. Cold and snow if predicted for 12/15, then 12/30, then 1/15 and such finally arrives 1/25 is a Busted outlook. Eventual outcome has some limited merit but timing is even more valuable. Nobody was excited about Dec anyway but by end of the month we need to see the pattern change to what the analogs showed or we are in trouble with what previous outcomes in Ninos have provided for us. .