WEATHER53

Well at least a lot of Lows are being fired at Our target

Pepco extreme tree trimming did wonders.

This was the depiction for the early Jan event about 4/5?days before we got rain and 50. I hit really excited about an A but turned out further north and west, stronger with excellent cold air scooting out in 24 hours and thus temps over 20 degrees warmer.

Because, they are show every possible outcome I think I’m beginning to understand that models are for fun but not forecasting. This can help alleviate some of my angst and poor interactions at times. When it shows snow and 28 at noon today for Tuesday and then shows rain and 60 at 18z then Neither was a Prediction of an actual high percentage outcome but rather an example of “if a,b,c, d” then such an outcome will follow and 6 hours later show “e,f,g,h” and just keep rotating every 6 hours. im happy to finally get this through my thick head and perhaps I can just sit back and enjoy the myriad of examples that will be forthcoming.

Thanks Does the coonskin cap get wet and stinky in all this rain?

Colder air does appear likely next week so let’s get good things started . at this moment the pattern Has Not changed, everything is 7-10 days away, and the excess rain in Dec with temps 60-65 has merely become excessive rain and highs 50-55 so far in Jan. I hope that pattern changes, it must,

Her synopsis does not match the conditions the bay produces with strong southerly wind direction for 6+ hours. I think this is a top 5 all time tide heightvat Annapolis. That is In Fact, exceptional

Let’s be frank though-the pattern didn’t change and the delays continue. we can still get a biggie orccouple old fashioned 3-5 inches but a persist cold and snowy winter with snow remaining on ground is not in the cards but may yet assert itself upon 2-3 snowing occasions.

What I generally do is add 2-3F for 850s and surface. It will make some rain but that 2-3 gets overcome when set up is solid

Since 1970 years when DCA had 5”+ of rain in Dec, and where Jan is headed the same way , were 1977-78 and 1986-87. 77-78 were like 4.9+ for both months and 86-87 5” Dec and 7” Jan. Analog precedent rainfall pattern gives hope.

That very long southerly fetch produces that but it’s rare

Seems like many places had 3/4 consecutive hours of 40+ gusts topping out at 50

For sure we are having ample low pressures and just gotta get cold that isn’t gone in 25 hours.

Wasn’t this just a snowstorm here?

Persistent 25-30!with gusts to 40.

Warmest I’ve ever seen real flakes was 47 on a March boil up snow shower day.

Wow! I think the only one that is not on the map is a gale warning and that’s because it’s a storm warning

Frequent gusts well over 30 im seeing these like 8” tall 4 feet long sheets of wind driven heavy rain fly by and in those “strips” I can t see through them Anyone else?

Nasty ass day for sure. 60 and driving rain is rough but 45 and same is too cold and difficult

Just had 44mph wind gust

This sounds funky old fashioned but it’s almost like the gears don’t mesh and grind the same way anymore. That in turn seems to make the 3-5 days not solid anymore and we are down to 1-3 for solid accuracy

Models do a good job with cold outbreaks. This is rollover cold coming in from Midwest which is not as good for us and cold that moves over eastern Lakes and se and down upon us. Those below zero readings in OV will moderate by 20F by time it gets here but that’s still around 20 for 7am Get that pouring in se from eastern lakes and we have a low around 5F.

Delayed IS denied

The winds on the Bridge coming up that very long fetch from the south is killer. I’ve been in some 45mph stuff that was scary . When it’s like winter cold fronts and very windy from nw it’s somehow not like 50 miles of open water

Ra**y it gotten too hard. I would not miss like I did last one pre 2012. And it’s happened too much in last 12 years. Reliable enso the NAO and AO are not the predictors they once were. Solid cold air now moves out in a heartbeat. Planetary changes. What I accumulated from 1965 to 2012 does not prevail anymore Makes me assess interest