WEATHER53

And many have direct personal experiences to Disprove it. A lot here were 8 years old 20 years ago and some of us already adults and already familiar with model performance

I would say both posts suggesting I cool my jets are mostly just excuse making about the accuracy and statements that we should just accept it and don’t complain. Models cover all the bases. Thats how they are scored for funding. So the status quo is content. I see no serious improvement over the last 20 years. I believe they try to do too much, like using a microscope for very close up inspection rather than a more backed off binoculars approach. Between now and Christmas Day we will see everything from 30 and snow to 60 and sun for Christmas Day. That’s not science, that’s cover all bases guesswork

If pattern changes are almost built in rushed in guidance then why not develop a system that does not do that? Over last couple winters we’ve seen gigantic failure anywhere from 36 hours to 15 days out. Very few if any positive such surprises .

It’s still mostly a cover all bases operation

See talk has now drifted to December instead of Thanksgiving with even some later patter. Can’t duck our heads and just sluff off the start of the infamous “delayed but” potential pattern

What are temps aloft as I’ve been steadily falling since 12 noon and now 47 with a dp of 23

Thanks Don. How have you been?

Two years ago I asked several times about the earth adjusting on its axis and was ridiculed. Now that its confirmed to be almost 3’ I wonder if we have any idea about any effect? Presumably it’s so minuscule but do we actually know that? I mean we are told the planet is so fragile due to the 4.5% of it that is populated so could even .0001% of a change in the sun angle be of any importance? Thanks

50.4 for my high which I think is the third coolest of the season

There has not been sufficient length of time. Many indexes are offered and even created but are dubious. We do know the negative NAO and AO remain big. Enso is not as strong a determinant as it was 15+ years ago. Pacific Ocean warmth cannot flood the nation and up into Canada. DC needs MillerAs and not phase job/transfer crap. We can get decent overrunning but the secondary rarely does anything for us . Mongolian high pressure sets us up well.

BWI: 22.5 DCA: 18.2 IAD:28, 7 RIC: 14.6 SBY: 14.9

47 when I parked the car in Baltimore and come out two hours later and its a different night. Something may be wicked with this front and my firepit event in big jeopardy

The fatal word of “delay”

Hopefully we are not beginning the delayed but…crap that have so crippled the models in winter forecasting

Didn’t BWI hit 17 for a high 3 consecutive days?

I got 89-90 also and 95-96. It’s interesting this season that a lot of occurred event analogs from this year are matching to positive outcome producing years in the past

What time and what portion of sky is best? Low in the horizon?

At least that little low that pops up for a bit is moving across extremecl northern Georgia which usually helps us

Andrews jumped 7.7 in an hour.

95 and 2010 have shown up in analogs . One blockbuster and one not so much. The cold looks pretty consistent but the snows are either huge or not so much with other comparison years

With blowing and drifting leaves

I’ve had a temp spike up to 38 with cloud cover

Radar has light over the area so this was a good prediction

How far down is it making it?

45 for a high at 2pm and sun could do no more 10 degrees colder than my previous low max i remember these Arctic fronts blowing thru at this time of year and staying windy all night. Good things usually follow for 45 or so days